Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

I'm pleased about the 2021 70koz guidance, I had expected 68koz.

The detail around the 'metal price windfall dividend' is one of the most amateurish pieces of investor relations I think I have ever seen. I read this as:

So we have 55m in cash on the balance sheet due to a skyrocketing basket price. This will be closer to $70m in Q1 and maybe $90m in Q2. However, we are going to wait until Q3 to see if the basket stays at $2,900/oz or higher and then maybe we will pay out a little bit extra as a dividend. We will keep the rest invested in a ZAR bank account at 4% because we know how much you want more ZAR exposure in your portfolio and just in case something really bad happens, like the business producing no revenue for 2 years.

What's your plan here exactly? Is there something you're not telling us or has the company simply outgrown you?

I second that TBTT. Its a painful lesson getting shaken out but I do not for a second blame the MMs for doing their job. They were able to do it because of some panicked emotion driven selling. There was no new material information from this morning why would it incite a 20% drop. Keep your cool, know your valuation.

Volume looking strong today, buying in on the expectation of reasonably solid results tomorrow. Europe slowly going back to normal but the SP is less than half of pre covid

Good first post CHBones. The SP has run pretty hard recently, probably in anticipation of an enormous dividend, so given that hasn't happened its a good excuse for profit taking

I think you're right TBTT about Volspruit but I hope you're wrong. I am hoping for a demerger, send the project on its way with $10m in cash into a new company which can raise its own development funds.

I note they have also referred to it as 'Volspruit Platinum' which is just.... plain... wrong. The nickel and palladium credentials are much more valuable than its platinum

Hi TBTT, just the usual results day hysteria. The cheapest I could get was 56p but could only get a small amount. After several years here I'm very accustomed to the disappointment around the lack of ambition and clarity on results day. But their amateurish communications and overall corporate approach to is still incredibly frustrating. It makes one wonder if the cash actually exists...

I'll take those shares thank you very much. There are enough investors waiting for a dip on this that it wont stay below 60p for too long

TornadoTony they corrected the water issue. This was in H1 last year! That's a terrible reason to be selling but good luck to you

Sure seemed like panic selling towards the end there. If I can get some for around this price level on Monday then its time for a top up

Those job adverts are interesting. I'm hoping that given they are committing to over £0.5m in additional costs this means that they have a healthy new business pipeline. Over recruitment (but not delivering the revenue) is how they got into the big mess

Instead of working this afternoon I updated my valuation of THS to reflect the recent huge basket increase. My DCF-based valuation of THS is 165p using my standard 20% SA discount rate and a 25% marketability/liquidity discount reflecting the extreme lack of free float and huge overhang of the Pouroulis family.

This ignores the existence of THS' share of the Karo project, which is likely to cost several billion for a mine, concentrator, base and precious and metals refining complex and construction of a 300MW renewable energy plant... in Zimbabwe

You never could resist the cash flow Shareminator.

Panic in the rhodium market?

Basket close to the record today... Rh over $13,000/oz and Pd settling after a bit of excitement... By my calcs EBITDA of over $100m in 2021 on a 70% EBITDA margin at this basket. Free cash flow not far behind. That's somewhere between 1.5 and 2x EBITDA.

Good to see a results presentation lined up... Keen to see production guidance for 2021 will be at least 70koz and also what they are going to do with the cash pile. Tell us what the growth options are or hand it over! I assume everyone will be asking the question...

And what the deuce is happening with Volspruit? That's hundreds of jobs for an economy in dire need of employment.

Based on the huge increase in prices recently my valuation has gone up to 111p, using a 20% discount rate, reflecting my required rate of return incorporating the SA country risk. 10% if you are feeling particularly bullish will get you 142p.

It all seems pretty lifeless in chrome right now. I also look at this site to see how the price has moved over the last 30 days. But it doesn't tell you what that price actually is

http://www.asianmetal.com/ChromeOrePrice/ChromeOre.html

August trading update on collections and new business should be enlightening. And the all important provision %. The cash balance will also be key. And maybe, just maybe, a little hint of bond refinancing?

Greg that is indeed a great sign. It is a sign of the evolution of a company that doesn't take growth just for growth's sake

I believe that the £20m estimate comes from Finncap which is in their 24th March report, which is quite old. I think the previous trading update in July alluded to beating expectations, now this is better quantified to at least 10%.

But very happy with the update, definitely on the right track here.

I guess we are bound to see some of the 50p placees flipping for their 25% around now.

The Sp is back to around pre-covid levels but with better prospects due to a captive domestic market. If they can maintain the current growth trajectory 100p is possible in the not-too-distant future

And when do the FTSE 250 income investors arrive?

Love the unscheduled trading update with good news... previous expectations were £20m, new expectations at least £22m. 10% revenue upgrade. Yet this is a supposed to be a growth company so expectations are to beat expectations so I'm not expecting huge fireworks today. The fireworks will come when we see the large net cash balance at the interims and understand the cash generating capability of the company

Always prudent to keep some cash in reserve... personally I like to stay fully invested most of the time.

I think right now we are in a sweet spot, China demand recovering very strongly and the rest of the world won't be far behind.

I notice that Rh has ticked up to $13,000/oz and Pd over $2,300. The basket must be close to a record again. C'mon chrome!!