Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

I think that's a fair observation. The bid is often taken around below 60 but you can rarely buy at that level. Sometimes it suddenly drops a couple of p and then snaps back. Seems to me there's a reasonably urgent seller but probably some buyers at around 60 as well.

This is one of the weakest shares in my portfolio and really does seem to be beset by headwinds and evil sentiment but it also has one of the biggest gaps to fill to get to pre covid and isn't performing any worse than the other more liquid mainstream financials like HSBC, LLoyds etc. Those charts are truly astonishing

Illaquens are you including the purchases of Thor MTR made in 2017? I cant find any explicit announcements about number or price but MTR bought 6% of THR sometime in 2017 when the THR SP price was between 1 and 2.5p. In hindsight MTR buying on market probably had a lot to do with the huge spike in the THR share price. I can't find the original 4% investment.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/metal_tiger/news/rns/story/w124m9x

Can't see any evidence that they hold the warrants or shares any longer and am assuming that they are long gone. Bummer

Well pretty limited action here despite the bullish sentiment out in the PGM market. I made a couple of small on market purchases at 74.99p yesterday, wasn't able to buy any great size.

Right now Tharisa is enjoying a record PGM basket + record production. So why doesn't record production and record prices equal a record share price? The SP is 40p below where it was in November 2019 when it had a production hiccup and prices were 40% below where they are now. The low free float is incredibly crippling of any short term moves so perhaps won't see much action until the results are released in November when I think some cash flow figures may prove to be very supportive to the SP recovery.

You're forgiven TBTT. So how high do you think it will go? Can't see the rhodium deficit being plugged from anywhere and the market must already be pricing in some significant demand shock.

Its feeling mighty bullish out there in the commodity world. We just need chrome to come to the party

$14,400 right now TBTT. Is THAT a record?

Question for the board: Does anyone know any other companies with a 70%+ EBITDA margin?

You know we are in a commodity bull market when Thor can raise $A1.8m on the back of a few gold grains in some sediment stream samples, even if it is at a 40% discount . Pilbara gold is pretty hot stuff right now. Thor's now MTRs 3rd biggest listed investment. I guess MM needs to bring down MTRs average, it must be close to 2p

Thanks for sharing that bit.. I didn't read the article, not a Times fan... just assumed that it would be full of red flags. That's pretty consistent with my own reasoning, though I wouldn't say the price reflects 77%. I would say its lower, more like 40%

There is new short position in IPF. Millennium look to have taken out short positions of around 0.50% against a number of Covid impacted businesses last week. They seem to have fairly deep pockets, be interesting to see if they increase

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B1YKG049/

I'd say you'd need to consider the audience of the Times for some perspective on their recommendations. IPF is a high risk return equation. All sorts of challenges and headwinds but already reflected in rock bottom valuation. Its not the for the average Times investor who wants to protect their retirement nest egg with a nice steady dividend income and its pretty rare that they'll recommend something in this situation. So I tend to agree they recommend this as an avoid to the average reader. I try and take a slightly more balanced (and risk seeking view) to acknowledge there is a refinance risk but the SP already reflects a x% probability that the bonds wont be refinanced and the company will require a dilutive equity raising. If you think that risk is lower than the implied valuation and this fits your risk profile than it might be worth considering.

$2,909/oz v $2091/oz achieved on 13/3/20. BASF has ticked up $50 to $13,850/oz so that is a new record high for rhodium. JM not far behind at $13,650/oz. I'll drink to that

Something will happen. I reckon one MM is sitting on the all the stock from the last few days. I just did a dummy buy for £10k, you can buy at 203.5 and sell at 203.6

Indeed...BASF is saying $13,800/oz, which matches the record high from March, when it fell to $5,500 in 8 days. And then went back to $10,000/oz in 2 days. Imagine the buying frenzy when it was $5,500/oz. What a ride

... but doesn't change the story. I'm still confounded what has caused the plunge in price. The NTA is double the SP, progress being made on refinancing and new business slowly returning. I'm scavenging a few more at the moment, it may fall further no doubt, just cant see it staying down for long given that huge net asset buffer.

If the SP did fall because of the refinancing risk leading to going concern anxiety, when they refinance (which I believe they will) what's going to happen?

TF1 I think a lot of us have similar GGP stories... I bought GGP at .42p in May 2017 and sold at 1.75 in October thinking I was a hero. There's no way I would have ever believed GGP to be a £700m+ company!

Hi Bangrak, I think its all about the free cash flow here. Similar to SLP, THS will increase in value as more of its market cap begins to be covered with cash. Maybe the Pouroulis family will pull off another Eland (which they sold to Xstrata for $1bn). The Tharisa mine and complex is a unique asset but can't really see a chrome mine changing hands right now

Chrome prices edging up. Still working through those huge stockpiles

And rhodium (and PGM basket) touching a record again.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3950350/Chrome/Yuan-appreciation-strong-steel-sector-support-UG2-market.html

Looks like 3.15m shares and 1.25m warrants at A$0.10 are held by MTR. The +120% change overnight meant the shares increased in value by £160k and warrants by £60k

https://www.loscerros.com.au/site/investor-information/Top-20-Shareholders

"The biggest concern is that the analyst reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Sylvania Platinum"

Maybe worth mentioning the EPS is lower because of the impairment of a peripheral asset (which I didn't even think had a carrying value to begin with) and covid. But that would involve reading some of the text of the announcements wouldn't it simply wall street...

I generally don't blame Liberum. I think they are one of the better ones. However like TBTT I also asked the question to management why the Liberum dividend could be SO different to the reality. They have no reason not to answer this question in the forum (given its not market sensitive) but if they don't I'll assume that they are embarrassed by the dysfunctional relationship they have with their nomad and house broker. Are they talking to each other?

Chris interesting question indeed. Can only guess that they will provide an update in a couple of weeks or that nothing has changed since the last update. Indications are that the half year release will be fairly substantial so hoping its in 2 weeks with some more ahead of expectations. Given progressives fairly conservative view and the various macro and working from home indicators, I think this will be the case