Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

A comfort blanket is a good way of describing it! No risk, no reward

Hey Frac, LOOP seem pretty afraid to put out any forecasts after getting burned so badly last year. Combined with the MIFID rules and the size of the company means LOOP has very limited broker cover, there just isn't really any incentive for them, and therefore no accurate consensus. Have you seen if LOOP's nomad Panmure has ever contributed anything?

It looks like there are 2 broker opinions, one with a target price of 270p (which was increased from 225p after the half year results) and one at 324p.

The effect of this is that if you think that the consensus has been undercooked then you will have an advantage over all those investors out there who are relying on consensus feeding into their stock screens rather than doing their own research. Consensus is giving a P/E of 12.8 rising to 23.8 in 2021. My own forecast gives a P/E of 9.2 falling to 8.8 in 2021. But WTFDIK?

Progressive released an update after the half year with a $1m REDUCTION to their 16th July 2020 revenue forecast and an unchanged 2021 forecast. So despite the Teams deal, the top 5 global law firm win and the Cable and wireless deal the only changes that they could come up with was to adjust for the GBPUSD fx rate and to reduce revenue for the migration to lower priced fixed-price contracts. But with no impact on gross margin. So lower prices but higher margins? Ummmmm

I guess this means the LOOP management are sticking to their story that revenue is impossible to forecast accurately for this year with a little over 3 months to go. I really hope that Progressive aren't being paid much for these updates that regurgitate the RNS as they contribute nothing to any deeper analysis of the company.

"Forecasting LoopUp’s performance remains a challenge – the main LoopUp Meetings business is continuing to see good volumes, but the RNS describes an ongoing migration of large customers to fixed-price licence deals (with long-term commitments, but lower pricing); Event by LoopUp is growing strongly, and the Teams business is nascent but full of potential. We make a fractional (£1m) reduction to FY20 revenues to reflect these factors and the recent weakness of the US Dollar (which impacts the Sterling translation of revenue) but leave our profit and cash expectations unchanged.

LoopUp has delivered on a very strong H1, highly profitable and enormously cash generative. We will look for further evidence in coming months around the long-term shape of the LoopUp Meetings revenue base as volumes stabilise, and the style and pace of Teams revenue growth as the business pipeline converts. "

With half year results out of the way and nobody the wiser about the official revenue outlook it looks like we are entering a news desert... if last year is anything to go by there won't be anything until a trading update for the full year in February! I really hope they can sharpen their pencils a bit and give some guidance before that.

Hi Sirius,
I get a value of 105p for SDO only (no projects) at current prices and a discount rate of 20%. 10% would get me 130p. I think the current price assumes a lower longer term basket price as everything else (production, costs, tax & capex) is pretty transparent

Chrome prices steady... at rock bottom. From last week

Chinese alloy market, currency movements support UG2 prices
The UG2 chrome ore prices in China rose again on Tuesday September 23, with the steady downstream ferro-chrome market supporting market sentiment, sources told Fastmarkets. Fastmarkets’ chrome ore South Africa UG2 concentrates index basis 42%, cif China edged up by $1 per tonne or 0.7% to $139 per tonne week on week on Tuesday September 22. The index has risen for four consecutive weeks from $133 per tonne on August 25, marking a total gain of 4.5%. Some ferro-chrome producers told Fastmarkets that they were willing to accept higher prices in dollar terms for UG2 chrome ore due to the strengthening yuan. The Chinese currency was trading at 6.78 yuan to $1 on Tuesday, compared with 6.91 yuan to $1 on August 22, according to currency exchange website Oanda.com. “Ferro-chrome producers can absorb higher prices in dollar terms but we don’t see a strong price uptrend so we’re still...

Hi Sirius, I use 20%. Its conservative as my own hurdle threshold for SLP which reflects the relevant risks of the company, country etc. If you look at the history of South Africa with a high probability of labour issues, civil unrest, power failures, currency instability etc etc I think 10% is low. The risk free rate for South Africa has been around 7% for the last few years. Sibanye uses in excess of 10% to assess its projects for impairment

Hey Tiger. The tax payments are in Q2 and Q4 and I have allowed for a significant build in trade debtors to 140 days outstanding in my EBITDA to FCF conversion. There was a sizeable debtors position at 30 June which I would mostly expect to be paid out during the quarter. However you may be right to err on the side of caution regarding the timing of smelter payments given the high incidence of force majeure declared across the industry.

I realised I still had some post tax Grasvally proceeds in my cash forecast so FCF and cash should be $4m lower.

Look back to when the SP was hitting over 6p on the 14th September and turning over £800k in a day and now the SP is grinding lower with daily value at less than £100k. Its been risk off this week, taking profits and protecting capital. Either the risk appetite returns or the company needs some news to put itself on investors' radars with a trading update, otherwise it could grind lower on low volume for some time

Hi Nimrod,

The shareholding structure of Sylvania means that if there is any takeover of Sylvania then it needs to be sanctioned by Samancor. Africa Asia Capital (SLP's largest shareholder) is part of Samancor and the investment is a blocking stake that effectively protects its chrome processing.

Its unlikely that Samancor is going to sell SLP and relinquish its processing plants to another party in the value chain, especially not a Chinese customer. I just can't see any incentive for Samancor to relinquish something so key to its production process. Without a takeover of Samancor I think its very unlikely that SLP will be taken out. Japan has a big interest in Samancor so unlikely they'll let that go to the Chinese and no-one is interested in buying a chrome company right now with huge stockpiles still being worked through in China.

Its in page 7 of this report:
https://www.sylvaniaplatinum.com/component/jdownloads/send/63-2010/105-investor-relations-presentation-7-october-2010?option=com_jdownloads

Morning TBTT. I had a little nibble of the platinum ETF this morning. The sell-off over the last week has bene unnecessarily brutal. And I bought back a chunk of SLP which I sold the other day. Couldn't resist!

Be interesting to see how your estimates compare to my estimate for Q1 below. Production is based on prior year seasonality and 69koz for the full year, I've assumed that costs return to the March quarter levels of around $600/oz and the basket price stays the same for the next week to give a quarterly basket of around $2,550/oz. Sales adjustments and refining charges always throw my forecast off a bit.

Production: 18,300oz 4E PGM
Sales: $38.4m
EBITDA: $27.3m
Free Cash Flow: $17.1m
Closing Cash: $73.1m

Glad to hear martyn. That's a fine return. I was down a huge amount myself on this and had to pile in big to get back to break even but nice and blue now.

Up to £3m in value traded so far, that's over 2% turnover in a couple of hours, which is a lot for a £130m Mcap company. Hopefully see some fresh faces on the register soon

Sirius I would say the CFO position is not very key. The financials are very simple, there's no debt, no hedging, 2 customers, not that many suppliers, not that many employees. And they have never seem to be involved much in the strategic decision making. I just hope she has someone good to do the modelling for Volspruit and to take care of that bank account.

I sold half my holdings recently, but prior to this SLP was around 35% of portfolio after the recent gains. My own valuation is around 100p based on all available facts. The simple maths of my high discount rate means that as future cash flow is converted into cash holdings the discount on future cash flow unwinds, my valuation rises, and the SP will grind higher as it has done so for the last few years. I think it will push higher but the next leg up to 80p will be a slower grind and I'm on the hunt for dynamic opportunities with more near term upside.

I generally always buy on a significant dip, if not for a long term hold than on a spreadbet. But I consistently take profits and recycle them into other areas of the market. I'll continue to keep a core holding and opportunistically add more

Look at those shares changing hands today. Immense. Over £1.8m in value within the first 45 minutes of trading

Ah yes I forgot the new sales channels

Looking very very strong on the technicals. Establishing itself as a momentum stock with solid fundamentals to match. I was a little worried about a prolonged period wallowing below the 50 day MA. But the dip was bought with vigour and looked to be a healthy bit of profit taking with the uptrend slowly being restored. I was hoping to buy a few more this morning but was too slow and already 224p to buy which priced me out for now. With a rising SP into results come expectations so hopefully we get a little upside surprise.

I don't know if the profit taking is over but on a 6 month view its looking pretty solid. Looks like everyone in the UK is going to be stuck here for the next 6 months at least. Which means replacing holiday spend on DIY and home furnishings. Competitors pulling out of the space and most traditional bricks and mortar in a death spiral. Cost base under control. Management understand the mechanics better of the return on marketing investment. Close to generating annual cash flow. Debt free and net cash of £9m. All for a MCap of £13m.! The only thing left is revenue growth, profitable revenue growth, which EVE looks to be on the cusp of delivering

Talk of another lockdown will certainly reduce the changes of everyone returning to work anytime soon... Zoom soaring again today. I would say that this marks a turning point for 2020 revenue, surely its likely to be much higher than consensus.

Nice to have at least one blue stock.

Results on Wednesday should be intriguing

I sold and am simply trying to explain my reasoning. I have been a supporter of the company for some time but Ia stop has been triggered to day and 'm feeling very pessimistic about the market in general and this was one of my larger positions. Sorry to offend notaflipper. I hope it does well for you.

I think Barclays and the FTSE will continue to fall at least into tomorrow. The FTSE has no support below where it is now (5900). I've decided to liquidate my entire position. Net asset based plays like this will take much longer to recover than growth plays. Can see this moving back up slowly enough and the final upside target is so far away can easily catch it on the way up