Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Positive comments from Peel Hunt on Q4 production

https://www.miningmx.com/news/platinum/43949-tharisa-said-to-flourish-as-pgm-price-spike-supports-push-to-expand-chrome-production/

Pleased with the result:

GM% of 33.5%, improved from 31.5% in previous half
Opex at £10.9 (just under £11m)
Operating profit (small loss as expected, but profitable after government grants)
Trading strong in second half and guidance in line with market expectations

What the deuce is happening with PAM? Its only been a listed company for 5 days and already in a trading halt for a 'transaction'

The recent rise seems to anticipate good results so they will need to be very good I think. I think this is a decent medium term hold whatever happens tomorrow. Very little international travel will happen over the next 6 months and local fishing could be one of those activities that benefits. We already know sales are £32m for H1. What I would like to see is:

- a bullish tone
- cash still in excess of £20m
- further positive update on trading in the 2 months since the mid August update and any indications of the order book for the remainder of the year
- gross margins - anything more than 32%
- opex: the last half was £10m. With the acquisition and covid costs we are probably looking at around £11m but there could be a surprise on this either way
- operating profit: small loss but last year was a small profit so will depend on covid costs and GM%

I can't see any consensus forecasts so no idea what expectations are but I have forecasted sales of £72.7m for FY2021. That seems pretty bullish now looking back on it!

Back up to $13,900 on both sites. Just when you think some of the heat will come out the $1,000/ox correction retraces back up within 2 days. It seems the market is still expecting a decent deficit. By my calcs 60% of 3E PGM comes from rhodium with Pt/Pd 20/20 each

I'd say that the gold space would be even more competitive than PGM tailings. You have PAF, DRD etc who are no doubt on the lookout for gold tailings projects.
A merger between SLP and PAF to create a debt free, mid tier precious metals recovery business would be a tasty proposition

Hi TBTT,
No doubt companies will struggle in the coming months but not in the PGM sector. Prices are at record highs, if you aren't making money in this environment you never will. I also would prefer not to buy assets at the top. However they should stop talking about using cash to take advantage of acquisition opportunities on the one hand and then saying they won't buy anything at the top of the cycle on the other. The messaging is confusing.

I think the Volspruit PFS is over 10 years old now. The same message has been regurgitated in presentation after presentation. I would have thought they would have a plan in place. Pd prices overtook Pt, must be over 2 years ago now. Are they trying to find a way to truck and process the material through the SDO?

The SDO are great assets but I just think they should focus on that and let someone else get on with the projects. The projects are a jam tomorrow distraction from the core business with a complicated and obscure pathway to delivering value

I think that's referring to chrome recovery

Looks like the big sell was the smart money, Fidelity reducing holding

Hey TBTT

Stuart is pretty clear that they won't be buying PGM assets at what he sees the top of the cycle. And he hates investment banks. Jaco is a metallurgist by trade and the CFO, who 'has taken a lead on corporate finance transactions' has been with SLP since 2009 and has very limited market or project experience. I just can't see any significant dealmaking happening under this watch, especially with Jubilee skulking around with a more aggressive set of long term PGM prices.

I'm skeptical about Volspruit. It seems those key approvals have been outstanding for an eternity and there has been literally zero progress in many years despite it being palladium and nickel rich in a rising price environment. For me the best outcome is demerge it with $10m in cash and dedicated management which are keen to get this either developed or sold.

I don't think SLP has the will or the capability to deliver value from any of these projects. They have proven very adept at sweating assets to recover metals and conserving cash but spending it, alas, isn't their forte.

Looks like that big sell definitely held things back. Going like hotcakes now. I wonder if the employee share trust is still selling, can't see any of the other institutions selling just at the recovery pivot, it doesn't feel like smart money, more like taking advantage of a liquidity event

The enterprise value of JLP is now around the same size as SLP once you adjust for net cash. But JLP has some growth options (notwithstanding questions around quality), while SLP has...none? We are in an ex growth environment where growth comes at a premium

I forgot about EUA. £1bn market cap, wow. So for that it must be looking to commission a fully financed, 150 koz PGM mine with 15 years of LOM within the next 12 months...

Using the EUA valuation method I wonder what Karo would be worth

Since Colin Bird sold that copper explorer to First Quantum (can't remember the name) he has overseen a bunch of mediocre tinpot mining companies but fair play on JLP, he has created substantial shareholder value over a pretty average set of assets. I guess you only need one or two big winners to be a success

Certainly looking interesting now. A few buys coming in, maybe some people did some research over the weekend...Basket looking pretty strong as well. I

I see JLP results are out this morning. Market caps are getting pretty close
JLP MCap £130m
THS Mcap £200m
SLP MCap £170m

Volumes have been quite low over the last few weeks, less than £200k a day

I can sell/buy £10,000 at 4.6/4.89. Better be quick... looks like it might pop

TBTT I just noticed your comment on the SLP board and was thinking the same thing. Investors are lazy and I can't see that many actually using today's data to go and work out what the cash flow is. They will wait for results and by then it will be too late. I think we should be pushing close to £1 by the end of the year

You only need to compare the charts of the two to see the fantastic opportunity. SLP is close to record highs while Tharisa hasn't even recovered to pre covid levels (although it was largely unaffected by it). I also don't think the SP factors in the tremendous low risk growth opportunities available to THS and the uniqueness of its mechanised, open pit, multi metal operation.

Btw Phoevos seemed veeeeeery pleased with himself in that interview. More so than usual. He definitely knows how much cash Tharisa is generating right now

Thanks Mr Woodford. So close but yet so far.

I'll be very interested to see the net cash position. It must be close to even with most capex deferred over the last 6 months.

If I update my valuation for new guidance and adding in the expansion case to 200koz 6E PGM in 2022 it comes out north of £2p. Hopefully we get some news on that in the earnings release

I'm not really that annoyed by this. Its how the market works. At the time it was a buyer's market. Everyone was panicking and bolstering balance sheets in expectation of the worst and shares were sold at large discounts all over the market.

Timing was highly unfortunate, being just before sales took off in Mid-June after lockdown was eased. But I think the expanding order book had a lot to do with it, they needed the cash for new stock and to reassure suppliers that they would get paid. And they needed it FAST to take advantage of the situation. And Blackrock knew it.

Since then a number of companies have been allowing the same terms to PIs to institutions but the cost and time can be an obstacle to getting this done quickly and efficiently. I think the advantage of them being able to secure a large amount of stock leading into a once in a lifetime sales period can partly justify being left out of the raising. No doubt many of its smaller unlisted competitors did not have the same luxury