Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Hi TBTT, I did make a small purchase at 62.16p this morning but just a little nibble. Feels like this may have some way to go and if the market does go into liquidation phase then nothing is sacred and valuation won't provide much protection in the ST.

The one big difference between before and now is the huge amount of stimulus that's been pumped into markets. Where is that going to go? But conversely, you have to wonder how much dry powder the central banks have left. The rally was in part triggered by the stimulus but whats going to drive a rapid rebound now? Bargain hunting?

Got stopped out today. Kept a small holding but decided to protect the tiny profit I made. Overdone - agreed, but as they say the market will stay irrational longer longer than you can stay liquid.

Im putting some aside for the rebound but feels like this is something that will go a little deeper than a short drop with pullback. Maybe I'm wrong but sentiment in the market is awful right now and its one of those situations where everything is falling, cryptos, PMs, EM currencies which just leads to margin calls and then things start caving in as positions are indiscriminately liquidated.

I hoped the gradual recovery would continue but expected a scenario like this and had decided to bank some profits and protect capital by realigning into some more defensive positions if this happened. I'll be back though

I guess that its a scheduled sale. Unfortunate timing for those employees who own the EPT. I see this as a positive if its removed a significant source of selling

Am I reading this RNS correctly? Over the last 2 months the company has sold nearly 700,000 shares for tax reasons. Must have accounted for a very large proportion of the selling volume. That represents a fairly substantial overhang for a company with extremely low liquidity. They look to have finished selling on Wednesday. Its curious that this coincided with a small rally over the last couple of days, or maybe coincidence? Anyway, that overhang is hopefully gone now. Just goes to show how long it can take to liquidate shares in this company on an orderly basis

SP being punished today, close to a 2 month low. 2 months ago gold prices were $100/oz less...

I haven't seen any RNS in relation to the disposal. It doesn't really have anything to do with Poly does it? Its one of its shareholders independently selling a stake in the company to other investors. Is Poly involved?

Responses to events like this never cease to amaze me. But the reaction from the Russian miners always seems to be a bit exaggerated given the heightened risk profile of the region and its investors. Or am I missing something more sinister?

Hi Anapa69. big shareholder taking some profits. Perfect buying opportunity for me. Im in!

MOSCOW, Sept 18 (Reuters) – Russian gold and silver producer Polymetal's biggest shareholder has raised 342 million pounds ($443 million) from the sale of a 4% stake in the company through an accelerated book building (ABB), a bookrunner said on Friday.

IST Group, owned by businessman Alexander Nesis, sold 19 million shares in Polymetal, it added.

It is the fifth ABB by Polymetal shareholders this year, analysts at Sova Capital said in a note. Despite selling 4%, IST will remain as Polymetal's largest shareholder with a 24% stake. ($1 = 0.7715 pounds)

Seemed a tad high

Fark me lets just bask in the glory of that 820p target for a moment...

Progressive are saying £17.3m EBITDA but by H1 they had already nailed £12.2m! Using the Progressive full year number of £17.3m only allows £5.1m in H2. H219 was £3m.. £2.1m covid bump in H2 compared to a £8.6m bump in H1. I don't think so...

So current valuation is 113/ 17 = 6.6x EBITDA.

Based on my forecast = implied 4.8x EBITDA assuming £23.5m EBITDA

On a more reasonable 8x multiple = 340p Still some work to get there but not out of the realm of possibility

There are plenty of debt free fast growing tech companies valued on an 8x EBITDA multiple. I think my EBITDA guess is as good as Progressive's and I don't have the pressure of not disappointing the market with my numbers :-)

I was only referring specifically to your remuneration question. I don't know much about the KMR operations or whether its a good investment.

Not really sure what your question about cash flow is but chrome prices are significantly lower than this time last year. There is a chart in the interim results presentation

https://www.tharisa.com/pdf/investors/financial-results/2020/interims/presentation.pdf

Looks like some buyers have returned. At some point valuation must overcome sentiment and the rest of the market, including reasonably valued software stocks, will decouple from the movements in the FAANGs + Tesla. Now its back to where the price was before the Teams and new contract news.

I've noticed that a lot of stocks close to their highs have taken a bit of punishment on results day so I don't think it would hurt to be 10-20% off the high going into results. We already have a pretty good steer on H1 so it would be great to hear a bit of info on July and August trading. H1 revenue was £31.9m. Progressive are saying £55.8m for the full year leaving £24m for H2. I expect July and August to be below June, reflecting seasonality but I don’t think many have returned to the office so I think they could be doing £5-5.5m per month. But saying that consensus seems to be that the Progressive target is a bit weak so Loop will need more ‘exceeding consensus’ news to feed the beast I expect.

Hi bangrak, I don't think you can compare Tharisa directors remuneration to Sylvania. Tharisa is like Sylvania plus a sizeable open pit mining operation. The operations are bigger with more material being moved and greater breadth of activity. They also have a number of large, complex, expansion projects underway. The market cap of Tharisa has historically been much higher than Sylvania. More than double and even triple a couple of years ago.

And also, we know how frugal SLP are. Annual admin costs are exceptionally low. I wish all companies were like SLP in terms of overheads but they are an exception. You are bound to be disappointed comparing any company to SLP in this respect.

$1m of the Tharisa remuneration is non cash share based payments subject to vesting conditions. Whether they are suitable conditions is another question. And 2019 was a vastly different year. I wonder if remuneration will be lower this year... They have maintained production despite covid so I wouldn't be surprised if it was similar. But the SP is lower so SBP will probably be less.

I would compare THS to a mid tier Southern African mining company like Kenmare 2019: $2.4m for 2 executive directors).

I sold some SLP shares earlier at 70p and have made my last top today. That's the highest I paid and was very reluctant but SLP has run very hard and this has barely budged so I think its about to pop

Not far from my view TBTT. I have THS at around 185p and SLP at 110p on an NPV. But for THS I have kitchen sinked the valuation with high cost inflation and conservative production. Excluded Volspruit, Karo etc. On an enterprise value basis SLP is $50m less than THS based on current Mcap and cash.

I use IG and normally always get a quote. Right now I'm getting 75.6/78p for £10k. I think this week will be the last chance to buy at below 80p for a while. Its been a nice slow grind upwards but like you say often hard to buy and even harder to get a good deal. I've bought in 16 lots since the February 26.

That article is from May Shareminator. Not many markets in the world now where you can't get a quoted price regularly. Even rhodium which is tiny. Reflects the dominance of China in determining prices. This site is the only place where I can get directional data but it doesn't tell you the actual price just the relative performance. Its not getting worse at least :-)
http://www.asianmetal.com/ChromeOrePrice/ChromeOre.html

The dividend irks me also. I really don't understand why they can't have a simple policy like Tharisa to pay out a minimum of 15% of NPAT. The windfall dividend, while something I agree with conceptually, is one of the most ridiculously executed pieces of corporate governance I've encountered.

The current SLP dividend policy is an utter disgrace. Contrast this with the Polymetal dividend policy, which is a thing of beauty and does all the things that SLP has tried to do but done poorly.

https://www.polymetalinternational.com/en/investors-and-media/shareholder-centre/dividends/

Hey Visitor, Yes it reminds me of SLP a few years ago as well. The sentiment towards chrome is similar to platinum but the market has not valued the by-product production in the same way it has for Impala, Amplats and indeed SLP. Chrome is seen as a millstone but no company is better placed than Tharisa to take advantage of a recovery.

Tharisa is just about to enter the cash flow sweet spot but unless you've been digging around you probably wouldn't know it. It might help if Tharisa increased the scope of the quarterly results to include EBITDA and net debt/net cash. One big negative thing for me is that the guidance around production has been difficult to interpret. I don't really understand why Q4 production is expected to be lower.. what about all the various expansion projects THS has in the pipeline? Not really sure how covid has impacted 2021 guidance, they had plans for a big expansion in output, is that still happening?

And Karo is a huge red herring... what on earth are they going to do with that?

I think that the new Teams deal is powered by Enablit tech which was acquired from Meetingzone. Does that sound familiar or am I totally off the mark?

https://www.enablit.com/our-story/

The chart here is looking WEAK. The SP crashed through the 50 day MA support and the 100 day is only at 175p. An awful lot of selling taking place without the volume to offload it. Stinks of desperation