Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

This coverage of results by Simply Wall St is once again truly awful... is it possible that the SP fell on results because the results missed Liberum's forecast (which weren't adjusted for Covid)? Surely not

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sylvania-platinum-limited-earnings-missed-055808851.html

SC I announced my top up on in a post on Tuesday when the blood was on the walls so better cross your ts before accusing anyone of duplicity

New win of a top 5 global law firm is great news. I think Clifford Chance is only top 10 so this new client is likely to be bigger and could represent a material portion of total revenue (>5%). Combined with an additional 2 top 100 law firm wins this further validates the professional services strategy and shows LOOP is gaining market share in its niche.

The C&W deal is interesting as well, not sure its a huge revenue contribution, but this is tells me there is a business development pipeline with some additional revenue growth opportunities with the global telco suppliers.

It will be very interesting to see if theres news on Teams in 23 September. I don't believe current expectations include any additional revenue from that opportunity.

ShearClass my point is about perception rather than fundamentals... I took the opportunity to top up because I prefer to focus on the company rather than market sentiment

The share price follows the cash. Its done so for several years now.

2017: $15m
2018: $14m
2019: $22m
2020: $56m
My forecast (assuming flat dividend, current basket and 69koz production)
2021: $140m
2022: $213m

Short term movements in share prices are noise. Look at the long term trend. 1, 3, 5 years.
Where's the conviction?

"As another shareholder points out: “Don't forget that we are as much a chrome producer as a PGM producer, we just get to keep the PGMs for free.” Whilst this may be a simplistic description of our relationship with our host mines, it is important to note our fortunes are linked to those of our host mines and in turn the ferrochrome and chrome ore markets."
Simplistic description indeed but it is simple: chrome ore goes in (albeit PGM rich), chrome concentrate goes to Samancor, PGMs are ours... for free

"I hope this explanation around (ZAR) liquidity issues helps this shareholder who wrote: “I’m annoyed that they've been holding the huge cash balance in ZAR, half of that should be in our pockets by now.”” I'm still annoyed. And in the absence of any investment in growth projects the balance sheet is 'lazy' by any standards.

PS Keep up the good work!

Thanks for doing such a good job generating tonnes of cash and multi bags of the share price over the last 4 years. Now that I know you read our messages here are my responses to your comments about some of my posts from the last 6 months.

"In terms of reporting, I am pleased to see each year that our reporting improves and adds value to shareholders. One of the shareholder comments of note reads: “Stick to the valuation story, not the short-term fluctuations. Reread the RNSs and make decisions based on your own research, not market movements. The managed funds seem to be selling but I have no doubt that the hedgies are buying on the back of PGM price movements.”"
I still believe it! I thoroughly appreciate the dips that you somehow consistently manufacture for us on results days. I'm always buying them. Take it down to 50p next time please

"SLP management are penny pinchers and cash hoarders. There is a dividend policy in one of the investor presentations from last year I think. But it’s not a policy and it’s not really worth reading as it simply lists the reasons why they shouldn't pay a dividend.” A strange comment for a Company that has paid two annual dividends in the past"
Haha I enjoyed re-reading this post and I still stand by it. Read the policy. Its amateur, only outlines some of the basic principles of shareholder returns and is no way a distribution policy. This is a dividend policy https://www.polymetalinternational.com/en/investors-and-media/shareholder-centre/dividends/ But I do like the fact that penny pinchers and cash hoarders are managing my company :-)

"This shareholder wrote: “A large portion of the cash is held in ZAR and with the recent weakening of the ZAR to the USD, a significant impact on the USD reported cash balance going forward will be had.” This is correct and is a fact of life for a business operating in South Africa. This impact does work both ways though! "
No it does not explain why you can't deposit the funds in a USD or GBP denominated bank account in South Africa or actively hedge part of the ZAR exposure. And also, you missed the first part of the post where I referred to the results as MIND BLOWING.

I think its great Stoodio. Very entertaining. If anyone thinks the SP is too low then why don’t they buy more?

Haha just been reading the accounts. I had always suspected that he trawls the boards. It is a little strange that he has made reference to specific posts but good to see our man has a bit of a sense of humour. I would like to meet him one day. I recognise a couple of posts going as far back as January....

"Since we're all meant to be mean, grasping, gouging shareholders..." TBTT you made the man smile!

I also found this comment interesting:

"Increasingly over the past year we have welcomed more retail investors." Indeed SLP has been summarily abandoned by its institutional investors but the slack has been taken up by retail with huge increases in the platform holdings. The change in composition of the shareholding structure has been profound.

gkb47 Q1 results in October should add a bit of excitement. If prices continue at close to these levels for the next 3 weeks the Q1 2021 basket will be a record for a qtr at around $2,500/oz. This is a similar level to Q320 where we had that mind blowing result of $32m in EBITDA for a single quarter. I don't think we will quite match that but its going to be another huge qtr for cash generation and wont be too far off.

Not really a good time to be holding small techy stocks. Tesla was down something like 25% yesterday on a technical driven sell off. It had to happen at some point.

Hopefully LOOP has something encouraging to offer in its half year. Last year the release date was 17th September so would make it end of next week as best guess.

We've got to the point where Tesla sneezes and the world gets a cold. Its a sentiment-driven technical correction reflecting the huge run up in the FAANGs. Now they are dragging everything down. The drama leading into the US election isn't helping.

Does any of it impact Loop's EBITDA? I don't think so. Remember why you bought... The Teams bump has been wiped out and this is now a (close to) debt free company trading at less than 5x EBITDA riding on the coattails of a remote working revolution. I've been waiting for a dip to buy some more and I picked up a few at £2.

It could go on further. But there is a huge amount of funds sloshing around out there and no real return anywhere but the stock market so I think it may recover relatively quickly.

We are sometimes a little harsh....In all fairness the share price is up from 36.9p YTD. The only investment grade companies that can match that return are the tech companies.

We do like to ***** and moan but the fact is we've all made tonnes of money from this company and perhaps we should celebrate the fact.

And another fact is that if the company keeps building the cash pile the MCap will follow it. Based on the price basket by the end of 2023 cash will be greater than the MCap. Do you think the SP will 60p with $250m cash in the bank?

I think you are being generous TBTT. I didn't gain any further understanding of what they plan to do with the cash, how big they intend to let it grow, nor do I know how the special dividend will be calculated. Something to do with the excess of prices over consensus. More than 8 months into the year they still aren't confident about the full year price outlook . I felt a very strong sense that they think they the current price basket is unsustainable and that is motivating much of their decision making and which is holding them back from buying new tailings deposits (unlike Jubilee which is going hell for leather buying everything). Stuart definitely has something to do with that.

TBTT the EBITDA number of $100m is on slide 20 of the presentation. He answered something like your question: "What are your growth plans for the future, and what do you intend to do with the ridiculous amounts of free cash that you are currently generating" Although you omitted the word ridiculous hehe

He actually answered that question "why isn't the SP higher when the cash balance is so large" but I dozed off so not sure what the answer was.

800-1000 oz lost in 2020 due to load shedding, issue now resolved with diesel power installed as back up. Water issue resolved, not quantified how much was lost. Extending Lesedi improvements to Tweefontein as a preventative measure in future.

The bit about improving shareholder engagement via the analyst perception survey was interesting. How many analysts are left covering sub $500m AIM stocks ?

He didn't answer either of my questions which I sent through on the weekend.

Do you mean... where's my huge dividend?

All logged in and ready to go. Looking forward to sharing feedback afterwards.

My expectations are veeery low for this call given all the guessing we have to do all the time and the lack of experience of the new CEO. Hopefully I am pleasantly surprised by some diamond like clarity

The recovery process is primarily chemical, not electric. Infrequent power outages are disruptive but do not have a significant impact on production. Longer term outages will require diesel generators which will have an impact on costs but aren't a business critical issue. Similarly water is a constraint but they resolved this with new bore holes.

These are just some of the costs of doing business in Africa and can be rolled into the geographical risk. In my view the biggest country risks however are social unrest and resource nationalism. Not power and water.

And what about SLPs dependency on a shadowy private organisation as its sole source of feed supply?

Are these the same accountants which did not even get close to uncovering frauds and gross incompetency to allow companies like CAKE, Conviviality etc etc go bust? The accountants are covering their asses plan and simple and are detached from the commercial reality of the market with zero value add. You don't need to be one to know that if you don't pay your debts you go bust. The world is desperate for yield, particularly of the high yield junk variety and IPF has the assets coverage and reputation to raise the required finance

Taking on this project would substantially change the strategy of SLP from a processor to a miner and exposes the company to a completely different set of risks. The biggest of these is funding. I have no idea how much the project would cost but I'm guessing several hundred million. Deciding to develop the asset would mean we kiss any large dividends goodbye and see value locked up in a long term mining project. If the market gets a whiff that they are thinking about doing this themselves I would expect the SP to tank.

I thought that maybe they keep delaying the large payout because they were waiting on progress on Volspruit but the below paragraph suggests to me they haven't made any progress at all, despite strong palladium and rhodium prices, which by my calcs would be 60% of the project's revenue. I don't know why they insist on calling it Volspruit Platinum, the Pt contribution is well less than even nickel at the current price.

During recent months a review of the earlier Volspruit project feasibility study was initiated and specialist technical consultants have been appointed to assist with optimising the respective envisaged mining and metallurgical processes and to reaffirm various input parameters required for an updated investment case. With the Mining Right already awarded, the Company is busy with further investment towards obtaining key permitting requirements which include a Waste and Water Use license for mining and on-site processing of the ore and to finalise the amendment of the Social and Labour Plan (“SLP”) forming part of the Mining Right for a revised Local Economic Development (“LED”) project.

Hey TBTT! Yes it will be a real reflection on management how they approach this question. I'm nervous that they may make a sudden pivot into developing Volspruit.

And CJ66 we shouldn't really care. It doesn't change the valuation of the business. Basic corporate finance theory dictates that valuations are independent of dividend payout ratios.

However its more about the approach and confusing communication from management for me, going back to the dividend 'policy' and then this weird windfall metal approach.