Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Solid...as usual. Nice dividend increase, I bought a few more, should see this at 1.25-1.30 later this year. Gas prices on a tear and the forward curve now looking very strong, perhaps even some panic buying creeping in.

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_b1616ac6ad44027b77399465c996a407/dgoc/db/557/4296/pdf/DGO_2020_Interim_Results_Presentation.pdf

not a flipper I've sent an email as well. Its annoying (and suspicious) when they committed to keeping investors informed and decide they are going to miss a month

Real test of patience and discipline... no volume, no news...doesn't look like its going anywhere for a while

Well, surprised on two fronts there. Very unprofessional of them

I would be surprised if they didn't give a July trading update. Management has committed to providing regular updates on key operational metrics. Why would they skip a month? I expect a July trading update and then an August update with the half year release in September.

I would also be surprised to find that they are communicating intentions via twitter.

Have put out a new note. You'll need to sign up (for free) to read it

https://www.progressive-research.com/company-coverage/loopup-group-plc/

Hi Visitor, as always very clear and well worked numbers. The major differences to mine are that my FCF is $50m and I apply a (hefty) discount rate to future FCF, reflecting the state of the SA mining environment.

My valuation is 78p.

"From a technical perspective it seems they are due for a correction." Indeed!

Regarding 12,000 potential users, I know I'm not right but just having a go at determining the total addressable market. My main points are that the addressable market in terms of percentage of Teams customers is small, but the revenue per customer would be above average.

There's another chart on that page which gives a good indication of how under valued gold is now and which is why many expect gold to go to $3000/oz

https://www.macrotrends.net/1486/fed-balance-sheet-vs-gold-price

Hey Visitor, look forward to reading your ideas. I also have been piling in since February and I think we are on the same page, I've set out a lot of my thoughts previously on this board and also a couple of posts on the SLP board comparing the 2.

I'm excited about Vision 2020 (or maybe we should call it Vision 2021) because if they deliver everything they are planning it will give annual EBITDA of $200m at current prices. This year I think they can deliver $100m even with all the Covid issues. Tharisa have a dividend policy with an actual calculation and I think could pay out an 8% yield this year and a 15% yield next year. Tharisa is perfectly placed for a recovery in chrome, don't know if you saw Glencore's H1 ferrochrome results - down 42% - truly dire state, with the below comments:

The Ferroalloys business has for some time experienced a structurally worsening competitive environment across the South
African ferrochrome industry, including via substantial electricity price increases. In January 2020, a consultation process was initiated on the future of the Rustenburg smelter, and in June 2020, a further process commenced across the entire business, to seek a more competitive operating cost structure. This is an ongoing process with all alternatives being considered.

Jammy you beat me to it. I saw those results and an article in the FT this evening and was thinking the same thing. BBOX isn't quite in the same ballpark as Segro but could also be trading with a significant premium in the future. From memory NAV was around 150p at December so likely to be trading at or around net asset value at the moment

Platinum is today back to pre covid levels. A lot of news about strong car demand and how undervalued Pt is relative to gold, meaning maybe its is poised for a silver type ration realignment. Could we really see some Pt fireworks... We need to smash through 1030 before I start getting excited

I'd like to see that toptiger

But I really don't understand how the MMs work.. where ARE all the shares coming from to fill those trades at 220...

The SP has tripled over the last few months, doubled over the last 2 and added 50% over the last month. Sometimes it also just needs a breather to consolidate at a level and let the screaming overbought signals run past. I'm happy for it to sit like a coiled spring at 220p until the results come but I don't think it will

Bricks I cant fault the MMs for having a go. But it certainly does seem suspicious that there is only 1 sell today, with all those buys at the 220p mark

Thordon I believe Loopup has around 5,000 customers. Average revenue of around £10k per customer. Of these only 120 are the large enterprise type customers with average revenue of about £23k which Loop would be targeting under the Teams deal. My guess is that these mostly relate to Skype for Business given Teams has only just started.

I don't think the majority of Teams customers have the global footprint or external advisor network that Loop would be targeting in a customer. I think these are the target market. So for every 100 customers Loop wins that would be £2m in revenue.

But how many companies still use Skype? My guess is not many. I'm going to make an assumption and say there are 10x as many Teams as Skype users, so I would say the target market is more like 12,000 global enterprise customers for a total revenue opportunity of £24m or £10m EBITDA.

All a huge guess but just trying to work though the maximum scale of the opportunity.

From the annual report MTR held 8.1m warrants at 2.5p at December 2019 which expire August 2021. Cost of £200k to exercise but currently worth £1.2m, so book value of £1m. I do hope we still hold those!

It looks like the 2018 investment was liquidated some time in 2019 then.

After a morning of no trades the price jumped on very light volumes. Trading update due this week or early next? Expectations for further improvements in collections and new loans as advised last month... After the July update the SP jumped 20% over a few days on relatively good news and then fell back to where it started. Feels like an opportunity for the patient.

Its been such a long time since I've seen or heard anything about the December 2018 GGP investment. If MTR still holds that it would be worth around £2m. In Simon Thomson's May article he seemed to think that MTR still had its investment

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2020/05/11/five-bargain-share-success-stories/
https://www.investegate.co.uk/metal-tiger-plc--mtr-/bus/purchase-of-interest-in-greatland-gold-plc/20181203070000Z0311/

There is also a little bit in Arkle Resources (used to be Connemara). Maybe Tally as well