Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Must have been about 15 interesting pieces of news since the start of May. Makes it much more interesting when you wake up in the morning and something is happening.

Thanks Forest for keeping us up to date.

And keep up the wheeling and dealing Tiger. I look forward to the new investments.

Although I particularly look forward to the A4 drill results and some news on Kalahari now that Bots is open for business again.

Gosh I look at the chart and the recovery potential for the SP is mouth watering. So much blue sky ahead...
This was trading around the £1p level this time last year

The price of the eurobond due next year has been steadily increasing since falling off a cliff.

https://uk.investing.com/rates-bonds/ipf-5.75-07-apr-2021

Not too shabby

https://www.investegate.co.uk/intnl-personal-fin--ipf-/rns/trading-update-and-timing-of-2020-half-year-report/202006100700064596P/

Price gains in the UG2 chrome ore market slowed in the week to Friday June 5 amid reduced trading activity, but participants’ persisting concerns over tightened supply continued to overhang the market. Fastmarkets’ chrome ore South Africa UG2 concentrates index basis 42%, cif China edged up to $170 per tonne on June 5, up by $1 per tonne (0.6%) from $169 per tonne a week earlier. The index has been on a steady uptrend since the beginning of May, but the upward momentum slowed last week on shrinking trading activity following a wave of restocking that had taken place in recent weeks. “The price is likely to stabilize at this level for a while,” a Chinese source buyer said. “But it will still largely depend on the state of supply from South Africa.”

Certainly has some velocity behind it at the moment. There's a lot of blue sky on the chart.

Hopefully you see some dividends on this sooner rather than later Jack

Hi Jack, welcome to LSE. Generally I find that posting comments on here helps me organise my thoughts and set out the rationale for making a decision. Rarely does it involve any engagement with other posters, so thanks for the comments.

I've been in and out of this a couple of times over the years and have a reasonable understanding of the business. While it has a fantastic ROE and great FCF yield this isn't going into my core portfolio and I don't intend to hold this in time to see the dividend restored. The regulatory risk is simply too great and I think structurally the market is in a slow decline (although the digital element is fascinating).

At the moment my strategy is to buy the most bombed out stocks that have a huge cushion (being a big discount to NTA, no debt and ideally huge cash pile or high FCF yield) and are likely to return to something close to normal trading in the post-covid world. I think that stocks that fit this criteria are likely to add at least 50% in 6 months.

With some positive news I think IPF could easily put on another 30% in the next few months, or few weeks at this rate. I have a target of 85p in mind, after that I think the gains may he harder to come by given it was trading at 100p last year.

I agree the £50k from the chairman is also a great signal (even though he's probably a multi millionaire)

I'm not a huge fan of the industry but this is an irresistible recovery play. The SP is still less than 40% of the pre-Covid level despite the gains over the last few weeks.

The discount to NTA provides a massive cushion although we will see some of this eroded by higher impairments as a result of the dramatic increase in unemployment. The change in laws in some countries limiting interest rates on new loans will no doubt lower growth but are a temporary headwind and I expect will unwind, hopefully by the end of the year.

I've assumed a 50% reduction in profitability in the short term which would give a yield of 10% next year. As the situation improves I would expect new business to be written more in line with historic levels and the dividend could get back to 15-20% in 2 years.

Take out MTR from that list and the portfolio performance has been negative

The UG2 chrome ore market rose for yet another week on Friday May 29, supported by Chinese buyers’ attempts to restock, and ferro-chrome prices stabilized in firm market conditions. Fastmarkets’ chrome ore South Africa UG2 concentrates index basis 42%, cif China climbed up for a fourth week in a row to $169 per tonne on Friday, up by $5 per tonne or 3% from $164 per tonne a week earlier. The index is now up $22 per tonne from $147 per tonne at the start of May.

Several deals were reported above the latest index level, showing the bullish run of the chrome ore market continues for the time being. “Some ferro-chrome producers, especially those in the south [of China], were running out of ore stocks, and they had to purchase even though the prices went higher this week,” a smelter said, adding that portside prices were in excess of 31.50-32 yuan ($4.41-4.48) per dry metric ton unit (dmtu).

On the supply side, South African producers lament ongoing logistical issues that continue to slow down the transport of cargo to ports. The border crossing with Mozambique is still highly congested and trucks can cross over only after long delays. For this reason, Maputo port has reportedly lower than average cargo to handle.

While producers within South Africa are expected to ramp up operations from June 1, the logistical hurdle is thought to continue to hinder the flow of material out of mines. Some participants believe the transportation issues will support prices further in the near term, others were skeptical of additional price hikes.

“Some ferro-chrome producers have already turned down the offers that were higher than $170 per tonne because they have sufficient stocks for the next months or so,” a trader said. “And even though we are seeing depleting stock levels of chrome ore, there is still a lot at ports.”

Fastmarkets’ assessment of chrome ore inventories at the main Chinese ports of Tianjin, Qinzhou, Lianyungang and Shanghai dropped to 3.56-3.81 million tonnes on Monday June 1, down by 2.9% from 3.65-3.94 million tonnes a week earlier

Thor are all over the place...I thought they would focus on developing one of their assets. Copper, gold, tungsten, molybdenum and now uranium and vanadium on a sub £5m MCap company

So for the raising MTR paid $0.005/share versus a current Thor ASX price of $0.011, meaning we are up by 100% on paper for a $250,000 gain on a $250,000 investment?!

And the warrants at $0.01 are already in the money as well.

Wouldn't be particularly happy as a Thor shareholder but its good to be on the other side for a change

Free divi worth 2.5% pre tax today....niiiiice

I'm looking at this simplistically. Refer to slide 18, profitability. In 2017/2018 EBITDA was over $100m and the Sp averaged £1. The SP followed 2019 EBITDA of $60m and tanked when results were released in early 2020 and so far has averaged 60p.

$44m EBITDA was banked in H1, after what I would describe as a fairly substandard operational performance. This year I think we can do $75m ish (consensus is $77m). The prospect of $100m of EBITDA in the following years is a strong possibility (consensus for 2021 well over $100m)

Backed by a MCap of only $200m and relatively modest net debt, the valuation to get back to 90p is pretty undemanding if you are willing to take a punt on the chrome price, which seems to have a lot of support right now.

https://www.tharisa.com/pdf/investors/financial-results/2020/interims/presentation.pdf

Forest taking the day off or something?

https://www.investegate.co.uk/trident-resources--trr-/rns/publication-of-admission-document/202005280730011963O/

https://www.tridentresources.co.uk/investors/admission-documents/download?path=c116445CCL.PDF

I think we might have a few these...Another acquisition for Thor, they really seem all over the place

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200528/pdf/44j5lvrs6zmvhx.pdf

3.5c/share
Payment date 26th June

I have mine in an IG markets ISA and get 15% taken off that. They've botched it once or twice taking 30% and corrected it before I noticed but seems to be without issue now. I think it depends on your provider whether or not you get 15% or 30%, based on previous discussions on this board

That IS a good article. I forget that Cupric is building a huge copper project just a stone's throw away.

Good news for SFR and Kalahari who will no doubt have a lot of future dealings with the Botswana government who seem pretty keen to support these projects.

Finally we have broken past 1.8, at levels not seen since 2018. How the times have changed over the last 12 months.

Instead of just MOD and a constant threat of a capital raising we are cash rich and have a portfolio of very, very interesting geographically diversified assets spread across direct investment, trading and now royalties. Copper and silver have been trending up nicely recently as well.

Well done to the team I say, they have been on the end of a lot of short term frustrated sentiment over the years but perhaps McNeilly has had this master plan all along.

Chrome prices have been consistently moving up over the last month as we enter a period of perceived market tightness. While the Tharisa open pit has been mining at full capacity from the start of this month, a number of smelters and mines in SA are operating at reduced capacity or not at all. Our larger competitors - Samancor, Assore, Glencore-Merafe, Impala, Sibanye and Amplats - have all suffered from supply cuts for various reasons over the last couple of months.

PGM prices also appear reasonably firm, albeit very volatile.

All good news for Tharisa. Chrome is one of the most unloved markets right now with limited price setting transparency and high concentration of supply which is experiencing severe disruption. No reason why a further recovery in chrome prices won't take place seeing the SP back to £1 in a few months.