Member Info for Radium1

As you all know, I never read any of Canute’s clap. However, I guess he is wallowing in this today. But ask yourself this, if this sage is claiming his usual crystal ball garbage and the ‘I told you so’ and 'as expected' stuff, then how come the bulk of his invested money is languishing in Totally Plc at a 60% loss for more than 7 years now... Some Sage!...Remember this from Canute…Totally Plc. On the 2 Mar '14 - 16:40 - 2231 of 3524 … I've put my money where my mouth is... I've a huge amount invested and all in my ISA...Basket case...

SSN… I meant to get back to you in regard to your post yesterday, re….Radium, I have looked at the FinnCap report. They are guessing at $23m CTV revenue for Q4. Not major growth, but of course this is without the LG acr data dependent customers. My guess is that this would be a quarter to a third of Tremor's CTV revenue. Comparing this with Q4 last year makes the YoY growth in CTV ok. if you knock off the LG side from last year's Q4 of $17m - say $11 or $12m last Q4 without LG? So it's a doubling - pretty good underlying growth.

The estimate of $23million CTV revs for 4Q is a new record for any qtr to date and although its an estimate it’s probably intact as it was given half- way into the 4th qtr already.

There are differing views on the cost to Tremor from the loss of the LG data. I’ve just read Yield-fanatic’s latest view on it and he thinks it is minimal. extract… the impact from Alfonso loss on existing business is minimal and easily shadowed by the business' organic growth....and we saw this this quarter. But is there a possibility that $TRMR is sandbagging guidance given there is lawsuit going on? Definitely.

Your guestimate of $11 to $12 million loss for 3q is somewhat oversized in comparison. Tremor did $87million in revenue in 3q which almost everyone thought was rather good. Albeit, it reflected a little extra growth from elsewhere compensating for the flat $20m revs from ctv but, if we then added your $11/12 million loss to that $87million, it implies that 3Q revenues would have come in at $98million. $98million is just way beyond anyone’s predicted forecast for 3q. Even 4q is not forecast to come in at that. And so, I think the loss is much more muted than you are suggesting.

https://twitter.com/yield_fanatic/status/1459086873423499269?s=21

ShareNicelyNow, thanks, an interesting reply. Yea, it was a shock to learn how financially fragile Alphonso was and that its very survival was dependent on loans and advances from Tremor. On the face of it, it looks to me that Alphonso didn’t see much of a future for itself either and when LG’s offer came, it was one it couldn’t refuse.
The logistics needed to de-fragment ACR data collection appear enormous and then there is this ongoing controversy about the deployment of that firmware in TV’s, as well. I have been encouraging people to turn it off. This is something I wrote earlier and posted on advfm…

The following is an absolute antithesis to my investment here but nevertheless I feel strongly enough to say this. My advice to everyone is to turn off Automatic Content Recognition (ACR) and do it on all TV’s in your home. When you first purchase a new television the ACR is normally disabled. Upon start-up you may be given the opportunity to enable it, or you may do so later. However, I doubt the average Joe has a clue what happens if/when he/she activates ACR….. ACR is a piece of firmware built into your television by the OEM (LG, Samsung, HiSense etc) which allows that manufacturer to exclusively harvest your viewing and ad watching habits, in detail. Much of the data collection remains fragmented at the moment but it’s becoming obvious that more and more of it is being brought in-house by the OEM’s or into walled gardens or controlled via exclusive contracts with those OEM’s. If you activate ACR you give the OEM your viewing data for free and the current trend of monopolising it is a form of hijacking of your personal data for their exclusive financial gain. Collectively that harvested data is very valuable and the ordinary Joe is often giving it for free with naive consent from which the OEM’s will then make millions of dollars from selling it to ad agencies and other interested businesses/parties. They make millions and you get nothing, nada, zilch. Turn it off, is what I say unless they are prepared to pay you for turning it on. The growing trend of the monopolisation of ACR by stealth, I think will eventually lead to the FTC or Mr Sherman and his Antitrust friends, casting a cold eye over this arena rather soon. And rightly so.

SNN….If I may quote 1gw again, re… the quarterly chart shows a dip in CTV revenue Q on Q from 2Q to 3Q, but then growth resuming in 4Q (estimate) with 4Q CTV revenue forecast to be well ahead of both 2Q and 3Q.

This being the case and given Tremor’s already rather low valuation when set against its peers (as you have shown) and the argument you provided, it is difficult for me to reconcile why Tremors sp has not out performed today in line with what I (and I guess, most of us) expected, given the earnings report they produced this morning.

coat, it's blooking me from doing it...try this but remove the spaces...
w w w. r e s e a r c h – t r e e . c o m

coathanger, replace the stars with *********************

You will need to sign in or register.

Replace the stars with ********************* in previous link.

Link (below) for the finnCap Research Note.
https://*********************/companies/uk/tremor-international-ltd-/research/finncap/tremor-strong-q3-drives-fy21-22-ebitda-upgrades-of-15-26-/8_31629

ShareNicelyNow....was grateful for a respones from 1gw as follows ...Brimach - look at the finnCap report page 7 to see charts of quarterly and annual (net) revenue by category (CTV, Other Programmatic, Performance). The quarterly chart shows a dip in CTV revenue Q on Q from 2Q to 3Q, but then growth resuming in 4Q (estimate) with 4Q CTV revenue forecast to be well ahead of both 2Q and 3Q. In 3Q, the dip in CTV revenue is more than offset by growth in "Other Programmatic" and a relatively big (in % terms) jump in Performance revenue.

SSN, I haven't been able to look at Tremors report in depth, so thank you for your summarisation. I've taken the liberty to post that analysis onto the advfm bulletin board.

I believe Tremor are sticking to the UK rules for earnings announcements. That being the case, standard proceedure is via an RNS shortly after 7am London Time

Rusty re your...So a good update should see us hitting £9 and upwards.

On a really good update I have pencelled in £11.
Punters have about 9 minutes to place their final bets here. The winners will be announced tomorrow morning.

Tremor's sp showing some strength as we head into the final hour of trading on this side of the pond. I'm expecting/hoping that it continues to trade upward in the US, after we close here.

It looks like the last squeeze of the orange taking place this morning. Lets see where this ends the day.

Cont…Truth be told, this self-effacing sage has no history of ever having had a successful investment

We all make choices in life as to whom we take our advice from and personally I tend to seek out the more successful people around me for this and I avoid the losers and failures. As an investor, our resident Canute falls squarely into the losers and failures camp and so I never read Canutes clap.
It’s worth reminding all of Canute’s past…you may decide for yourself whether you feel his investment advice is worth listening too…. There was a time when our resident Canute was heavily invested in blinkx (now part of Tremor). That was before Edleman and the share split. Back then, he promoted and bought blinkx shares as they rose all the way to £2.20p, (£22.20+ in today’s money). His bulletin board posts encouraged others to buy as he claimed blinkx was going to £3 (£30+ in old money). Four/five years ago however, a good while after the Edelman publication had knocked blinkx for six, our resident Canute sold all his Blinkx shareholding for just 50p, and at a substantial loss. If you leave out Temor’s 10:1 share split and the blinkx /Taptica merger dilution for now, that equates to about £5 in today’s money. Back then, and for a long time thereafter, as the sp fell further, Canute bragged on the ADVFM and lse bulletin boards about how smart he had had been, having sold all blinkx his shares at 50p. I remember it well. But what our resident Canute quite deliberately did not disclose to anyone in those posts was the fact that the shares he sold at 50p, he had purchased previously at prices all the way up to £2.20 (£22.0+ today). I posted a dated and timed account/record of those events on the ADVFM board, at that time. For several years, prior to him selling at 50p, he had been buying those same blinkx shares at prices all the way up to £2.20 (£22.2+ today). While this same guy was predicting on both boards that blinkx sp was going to £3 (£30+ in today’s money). And so, the facts are, 4/5 years ago, while claiming to be clever, Mr Smart consolidated a big loss on his Blinkx investment. Short sighted indeed because, in the passage of time the sp has recovered and he, having sold his total stake at 50p, is now losing out for a second time. Well actually, it is for a third time because, to add pain to his injury, our resident Canute invested those lossy blinkx (now Tremor) sale proceeds into Totally Plc. Totally’s share price was around 60/70p at that time, but he had been buying Totally at even higher prices prior to this, i.e 90p+. As far back as 2014 Canute posted this on advfm about his Totally Plc investment, on the 2 Mar '14 - 16:40 - 2231 of 3524 …quote… I've put my money where my mouth is... I've a huge amount invested and all in my ISA.
With Totally’s sp at just 31.5p today, that is a further c. 55% loss on the shares he bought at 70p and 65% loss on those he bought at 90p. On average a further loss of c. 60% on his “huge amount invested”. A loss that he has been languishing in for more than 7 years now. Continued...

finnCap’s note, updated just over three weeks ago on the 19th Oct, implies no impact from all this legal malarky…Target price at £14.

Extract…Tremor is expecting Q3 21 organic revenue growth of at least 50% at an EBITDA margin of c50%, which is ahead of the revenue growth of its US peers of 16-39% at an EBITDA margin of 12-35%. - Even using our conservative forecasts, Tremor is expected to deliver NTM revenue and EBITDA growth that is at least in line with its US peers, yet it is trading at a substantial discount on 9x NTM EV/EBITDA, while its US peers are trading on 16-69x NTM EV/EBITDA. - We reiterate our Tremor target price of 1,400p based on 20x conservative FY22 EBITDA, and we do not expect that Tremor will continue to trade at a discount due to market or external interest.

By the looks of it, TTD heading for a new ATH and $100.

StockPsycho….Extract from TTD CC....From a scaled channel perspective, CTV by a wide margin, led our growth again during the quarter. Exiting the 3rd quarter, video, which includes CTV and separately mobile, represented about 40% each as a percentage share of our business. Video as a percentage share of our mix continued to grow rapidly. Similar to last quarter, the increase in video was driven by CTV.
The CFO of $TTD said this 40% Video related business includes CTV. This makes an apple to apple comparison with $TRMR….. $TRMR's 82% vs. $TTD's 40%.

Tremor’s closing price across the pond suggests the MM’s will have this marked up to £7+ before the market opens here in the morning. Pubmatic, Double Verity and Viant all reporting after the bell tomorrow. Expect tomorrow and Wednesday will show us the trend ahead of, and in anticipation of, those all-revealing results on Thursday.

Tricky, plus damages resulting from the alleged misuse of Tremor's confidential material by Alphonso after the split....
In summing up Judge Cohen said...The evidence on this record suggests that Tremor is likely to succeed on the merits of its claim that Alphonso used Tremor's confidential information in violation of the parties' Agreement, and it seems pretty clear to me that it was misused or at least based on the record I have there's a likelihood that it was misused. Alphonso's responses are unsatisfying that the allegation that the information is not secret, essentially avoids the question of why Alphonso would circulate the Tremor information if it was unnecessary to have that information to target Tremor's customers; and whether or not the information is a secret in the sense of a trade secret, is not necessary to determining whether Alphonso breached its contractual obligations of confidentiality and Alphonso does not purport to satisfy any of the contractual exceptions to confidentiality. Then there is the, yet to be determined, breach of contract issues, these will require further litigation to resolve. On this matter Judge Cohen, in summing up said… I think this story, while still preliminary, is coming into focus to me and it is clearly a series of manoeuvrers between LG and Alphonso to lead to a result where competitors to Alphonso with respect to this LG data are going to no longer be able to use the data in a way that will compete with LG and its advertising arm as it exists now….. it's really whether LG is entitled to do that, whether Alphonso as an entity controlled by LG has the right to be part of that; and there are times when somebody has the right to control their own data and to determine whether it goes and can determine that it can't be used in a way that undermines its own business. So, there's nothing inherently evil about exclusivity with respect to use of data subject to whatever limits say any trust laws impose on doing so. The real question here is whether Alphonso and LGE trampled on contractual rights with various intermediaries with the effect and potentially the goal of eliminating competition from Tremor. …it all does depend on these contractual relationships and whether they are -- what the nature of them is, whether prior contracts were breached or, instead, simply renegotiated…. the interference claims depend on whether two upstream contracts were legally terminated or amended….. Those are issues that that will have to be litigated.
Plus, Tremor is claiming that Alphonso owes them about $11 million in unpaid loans and reimbursements.