Member Info for Radium1

Brought this post over from advfm, thought it appropriate to do so....

Barkboo re Totally Plc…Just look at the shortness of the extension periods now being offered to Totally. Last RNS extract..... The Contracts will only run for periods of between 6 and 12 months. There is virtually no tenure value with these contract extensions, nor is there any stability of tenure being secured with such short extension periods. One needs to ask ‘why’. Also, bumblebee posted this…. you may have noticed, it can be a struggle to sell large amounts of Totally shares and you have to break it down into several sells to clear...

A major warning given there…. If you need to get out of this one in a hurry, you’re going to find it very difficult to do so. It could cost you your shirt. Just another unnecessary risk on top of a share that is, in itself, a burden. And we know that Canute has a lorry load of these to get rid of …(in a hurry).

gdog yesterday, re your…. Apologies to Share, it was Radium who thought PERI'd likely not raise again.
That’s the exact opposite of what I was implying. I will however, accept the blame for your misunderstanding as I could have made my post clearer. What I wrote was this…

I think Perion’s revised Revenue and EBITDA guidance for FY2022 is quite exceptional. For FY2021 they’ve already raised Revs and EBITDA by $15million and $2 million respectively but for FY2022 the original guidance they gave for Revenue and EBITDA has been raised by a further $50million and $9million, respectively.…..If on Tuesday, Perion’s results and forecast are still in line with their 4th October guidance call, then I think it reasonable to expect one heck of a comeback for connected TV adtech stock immediately thereafter. As it is only a couple of weeks since this guidance was given, any change now would leave Perion management looking rather short sighted. Can’t see that happening.

With my last paragraph above, I was implying (or thought I was) that I could not see Perion ‘downgrading’ their guidance in their upcoming earnings call, as it was only two/ three weeks since they had issued that guidance.

Hope this clarifies. Anyway, village idiots excepted, yesterday was a great day for Perion, yourself, and the rest of us. Following SNAPS labour and supply inuendo, Perion’s CC cleared the air of the tension that was building around that for adtech. And wasn’t that a great Conference Call and Q and A that Perion provided yesterday? I really like Perion, those guys impress me. I also heard the ‘conservative’ word being used again in the Q and A session along with ‘ we like to under state and over deliver’ and ‘let us surprise you’…. Nice.

If only there was a chance of a merger here.

Fingers crossed that Tremor produces a similar impact.

Google 3Q earnings… reports another record quarter… Revenue increased 41 percent year over year; profits increased nearly 69 percent….Microsoft also beats with fastest growth since 2018.

Correction re ...Snap also posted a 57 per cent rise in revenues to $1.07bn in the three months to the end of September, falling $3m short of its previous revenue guidance. This should read....falling $30m short of its previous revenue guidance.

Facebook reports earnings on Monday.

Last Thursday The Financial Times reported that it seemed likely that Facebook will report the same Apple related business frictions in that Apples changes mean that advertisers no longer receive real-time granular information on how their Apple ads are performing, instead having to wait 72hrs for aggregate data.
Facebook said last month that it had become “harder to measure [the effectiveness of ad] campaigns on our platform” and estimated it was “under-reporting iOS web conversions by approximately 15 per cent”.

Evan Spiegel, Snap chief executive, said ‘’this has definitely been a frustrating setback for us,” but I think over the long term these privacy changes, and protecting privacy for users of iOS?.?.?.?is something that we fully support.” He added: “We’ve certainly seen some early signs of success but it’s going to take a little while?.?The underlying performance of the advertising platform is still very strong.” Snap also posted a 57 per cent rise in revenues to $1.07bn in the three months to the end of September, falling $3m short of its previous revenue guidance.

Although Spiegel also cited broader macroeconomic challenges around the coronavirus pandemic that affected the results, including advertisers’ supply chain issues and labour shortages, I think the main issues are Apple related. We will see come Tuesday.

gdog, re your...I also upped my stake by a fair bit in TRMR etc.

But Tremor also guided flat for 3Q, didn't they? There appears to be a growing trend for management to guide either lowish or flat while caveating it with the word 'conservative'. I think they have become nervy, even paranoid about setting targets and failing to meet them... failure means the pig gets slaughtered.

In the last quarter, mid-tier adtech produced some really eye-catching ‘percentage’ increases in revenue, ebitda and earnings, but that came of a rather low base in the first place. We can’t expect the same again….that bar/base, is higher now. My view has been that the market needs to see another couple of good quarters for Tremor and indeed the sector as a whole, to settle the nerves but, as it is generally the case when investing in stock, if you are waiting for certainty…. you have probably waited too long.

I think Perion’s revised Revenue and EBITDA guidance for FY2022 is quite exceptional. For FY2021 they’ve already raised Revs and EBITDA by $15million and $2 million respectively but for FY2022 the original guidance they gave for Revenue and EBITDA has been raised by a further $50million and $9million respectively. Vidazoo related or not, that is rather bold. If on Tuesday, Perion’s results and forecast are still in line with their 4th October guidance call, then I think it reasonable to expect one heck of a comeback for connected TV adtech stock immediately thereafter.
As it is only a couple of weeks since this guidance was given, any change now would leave Perion management looking rather short sighted. Can’t see that happening.

Holding any illiquid stock is dangerous and, to be frank, rather dumb. The meaning of the word ‘illiquid’ translated to, ‘’not easily converted into cash’’. Why don’t you just play Russian Roulette with your money? Over time, there comes a time when a live round eventually lines up with the barrel. Pop goes your weasel. Have you ever tried to get out of an illiquid stock in a hurry and while everyone else is rushing for the door? Including the institutions and the directors?
To start with, small investors are always last to learn about a pending disaster and by the time you eventually do know, the market makers will have the sp marked down to the floor already. Suddenly you are trying to get rid of your holding from a very low base but even then, the Market Makers won’t give you a price for large amounts of stock. You keep trying to get rid of smaller and smaller chunks as the marketprice continues to collapse before your very eyes.... eventually you realise that you have just lost your shirt.

The fact that you can't sell TotallyPlc shares in any real quantity during normal trading days ought to wisen you up to the illiquidity potential downside here, before it is too late and the above is upon you.

Gdog...I guess all the longs here have their fingers crossed for Tuesday. If it turns out that you are happy at the end of that day, rest assured we also will be verry happy.
Her's another pullover from TTD which I guess is, atleast in some measure, is also applicable to Tremor...

SNAP publishes content in one place - their app only, so they can only serve ads in that one place. TTD can deploy ads/tracking across all of their 200+ publishing partners. This hullabaloo really shouldn't be affecting TTD share price much at all, the technology use case is wildly different.

Next Tuesday, before the US markets open, Perion reports. That's when we all get some idea of what is really going on out there.

SNAP has issues related to its inability to cope with Apple’s new iOS parameters and it stated that it will take some months to overcome these. I see it has still managed to up its 4Q revenue, in spite of the headwinds it is expecting, albeit to something less than it had hoped for 4Q this year.

https://www.investopedia.com/snap-q3-fy2021-earnings-report-recap-5206692

Here’s something I’ve pulled across from the TTD bb….

Apparently I'm the only one here that works in advertising, and I can tell you right now that my client has boosted their ad spend 300%. And our scope of work is INCREASING for next year -- clients are planning to spend more in the coming 18 months. With most of those dollars going to programmatic as well as "tried and true" platforms --- Google and Facebook. Connected TV and DRTV spend is also on the rise but still a fraction of tried and true.

also I have head-hunters reaching out to me 3x a day because there is so much work in advertising -- so no, there is no ad apocalypse.

SNAP just didn't know how to integrate the new iOS targeting parameters so THEIR clients pulled dollars or spent less because they couldn't measure or track the investment, so the share price collapsed -- also SNAP is a dog and I'm surprised they didn't fold after Kylie Jenner tweeted that it sucks and made the stock tank 2 yrs ago.
TTD and SNAP are totally different and not related platforms.

Re..... you may have noticed this but it can be a struggle to sell large amounts of Totally and you have to break it down into several sells to clear...

Yeah, a major warning here. If you need to get out of this one in a hurry, you are definately going to find it very difficult and very costly. Just another unnessary risk on top of an sp that is, in itself, a burden.

Re.... Neumann and Thielen co-founded ADTECH AG which was later acquired by AOL to become its core adserver….

A bit about ADTECH’s history….extract..."ADTECH AG is a leading international supplier of digital marketing solutions. The company is a wholly-owned subsidiary of AOL Inc.

Headquartered in Frankfurt (Germany), the company's flagship product is an integrated ad serving platform - amended by features for mobile devices and video ads. These enable web publishers, ad networks, agencies and advertisers to manage, serve and evaluate virtually any kind of online advertising campaigns. ADTECH allows its customers to enhance efficiency, reliability and ROI in their online advertising businesses. Globally, ADTECH AG, founded in 1998 works with customers in more than 40 countries.

As co-founders of ADTECH AG, I reckon we have acquired some really valuable talent in Neumann, Thielen and Guzenko, particularly so at this time of Tremor’s stated desire is to expand into Europe, Japan and Asia.

Bumblebee was clever in getting out of this train wreck when he did. Just look at the shortness of the extension periods now being offered in this last RNS…extract… The Contracts will run for periods of between 6 and 12 months. There is virtually no tenure value with this, nor is there stability of tenure being secured with such short extensions. One needs to ask ‘why’.

SNN, a good post, as always.... This deal is worth its weight in dollars. It brings onboard three talented technology engineers… ” veterans Erhard Neumann, Mark Thielen and Ivan Guzenko, who are digital advertising and technology pioneers with extensive experience in running high scale mission critical ad management systems. While Neumann and Thielen co-founded ADTECH AG, which was later acquired by AOL to become its core adserver, Guzenko is a pioneer in the programmatic field having run Smartyads, Inc. for over 7 years."
And, just as Tremor is planning a push into Europe, Japan and Asia, note… Spearad's technology platform spans Europe, the US and Asia. Considerable value will be built out of this acquisition in the year(s) ahead, I think.

Ghia re your...Anyway active 2 is not the end goal here it is and always has been Global P3.

Sure, but an inconclusive or dud result will hardly help the cause, will it. Particurarly in the light of the new antivarals that are now in the pipeline from Merck, Roche, Atea and Pfizer. In all honesty, where do you think Synairgen sits today relitive to the above and its slowness in progressing its P3 trials.

HelloSanDiego re your....which gives us three options: positive, negative or inconclusive. That's not binary.

The effect of an inconclusive A2 results will will impact Synairgens sp negitively and thus the result remains binary.

HelloSanDiego...thank you for that correction....my statement should read ...And for those hoping for positive A2 results. What if they are inconclusive, or worse….a dud?

Alphageddon....ring true to what?
The facts presented here are what they are. Have you a counter argument or not?

Quite frankly, the real issue here for Synairgen, in my view, is what will be the impact on the sector in general and Synairgen in particular, when the new range of high efficacy antivirals from the major pharma’s, Merck, Roche, Atea and Pfizer are approved, while Synairgen remains still in P3 trials with all the uncertainty that those trials entail. And for those hoping for positive A2 results. What if they are inclusive, or worse….a dud? The outcome for Synairgen’s sp is as binary as the flip of a coin.