Member Info for Radium1

Courtesy digitalis advfm....

https://www.beet.tv/

Tricky re… 'what have the latest results done to the share price?

We are in one of the worst macro environments that I (personally) have experienced. The whole sector is beaten up along with just about everything else. All of our peers are suffering likewise and there is a great deal of unease out there that things may yet get worse.
With the US Primaries and the World Cup in November, Black Friday, Christmas etc, will propel us through the last quarter of this year and even though Tremor guided confidently for H2 on the back of this, it didn’t help our cause that they failed to guide for 3Q.
Looking ahead, what’s playing on punters minds right now, I feel, is that they are anxiousness about what may lie immediately on the other side of 2022. In particular for Q1 and Q2 2023. Here the macro is indicating a high probability for substantial weakness in the adtec sector alongside what is traditionally the sectors weakest two quarters. Personally, I think, that in the absence of some unexpected catalyst appearing from somewhere between now and when we exit this nasty period, it’s unlikely that there will be much in the way of any sustained positive movement in Tremors sp. Under the circumstances, I’m resigned to looking a year+ ahead now and into the second half of 2023. Happy in the knowledge that the Amobee integration will be well advanced as we exit this current downturn.

Yes, I've a better understanding of it now, for sure, and I trust others have benefited also. As for future SBC and renumerations, well there is always the fallback position that Tremor International Ltd refers to its Renumeration Policy and a Compensation Committee for its Directors and Execs compensation..."composed of at least three members of its own Board of Directors".
No bias there then.

SNN re your … The number quoted for 2023 looks like the SBC agreed at the time of the US listing, valued at the sp at that time (hence, sixty odd million in total over 3 years).

That indeed appears to be correct. This taken from the notes of Tremor International Results for the Full-Year Ended December 31, 2021.. 3. Effective upon completion of the Nasdaq IPO, on June 22, 2021, the Company granted an aggregate of 4,725,000 Restricted Share Units (“RSUs”) and 2,025,000 Performance Share Units (“PSUs”) to its three Executive Directors, pursuant to the terms of the Company’s 2017 Equity Incentive Plan and the Company’s Global Share Incentive Plan (2011). The grant of the RSUs and PSUs awards was approved by the Company’s shareholders on April 30, 2021 (subject to the completion of the Nasdaq IPO). The RSU awards vest gradually over a period of three years, etc, etc… The fair value of each RSU and PSU granted to the Executive Directors as of April 30, 2021, is 720 pence (approximately USD 10.02) per Ordinary Share, based on the market value of the Company’s quoted Ordinary Shares on AIM….Note 1, The estimated aggregated cost of the 4,725,000 RSUs and 2,025,000 PSUs awards, assuming 100% vesting, will be approximately USD 67 million over the three-year vesting period commencing June 22, 2021.
In addition, effective upon completion of the Nasdaq IPO on June 22, 2021, the Company’s three Executive Directors are entitled to a special bonus in recognition for their special contribution to the completion of the Nasdaq IPO in the amount of USD 500,000, as approved by the Company’s shareholders on April 30, 2021 (subject to the completion of the Nasdaq IPO). The special bonuses payable to the Executive Directors were part of an aggregate USD 2.9 million special bonus for the Company executives and employees, as approved and allocated by the Company’s Board of Directors (out of an aggregate USD 5 million that was initially approved).
https://investors.tremorinternational.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tremor-international-reports-results-fourth-quarter-and-full

SNN, that clarifies things. Many thanks for that assessment. An astute analysis and so, many thanks for your assessment of the matter. I guess we won’t know the full value of this year’s SBC award until we have the FY22 figures and similarly for 2023/24, all of which could be less (or more) than FinnCap’s guestimates.

Jeez, that was messy, try this...

https://www.investegate.co.uk/tremor-international/rns/grant-of-rsus-and-psus/202107120700088404E/

rather....www.r e s e a r c h-t r e e.com

It looks like you will need to replace the dots in my last link with r e s e a r c h-t r e e.com
Don't include the spaces.

gdog….The Share Based Comp numbers for 2022 and 2023 are provided by FinnCap on page 19 of their latest report. As I understand it, these awards were agreed via resolution 8 of an Extraordinary General Meeting of the Company which was held on 30th April 2021(see rns link below). The awards are therefore unrelated to today’s share price. I’ve been trying to find the Circular for that particular Extraordinary Meeting but so far without result, and I haven’t found the related share vesting schedule either. My inclination is that the reduction in sbc to c.$20million for 2023 is directly related to the vesting schedule. Perhaps someone else can find these doc’s.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TRMR/results-of-egm-6tbtkg6dqksb6a6.html

The grant of the post IPO RSU’s was an additional award. Details in the link below.

https://*********************/newsfeed/article/tremor-international-grant-of-rsus-and-psus-1237138

Investors Chronicle Alpha stock preview.... 01.08.22…Totally sp 43p.
Today, Totally sp 35p and falling. These guys are akin to horse racing tipsters. The majority of their tips are losers.
Bob has given you the up to date inside form.

FY23 Net Cash forecast to be $295....should read $295 million. But I guess you knew that already.

Share Based Comp drops from $50.4 million this year to $22.5 next.

FY23 Net Cash forecast to be $295, so nearly back to pre Amobee levels.

Courtesy 1gw…. that 2023 cash performance is quite striking, if finnCap have got it right. And that's a net cash number at end-2023 so gross cash is higher given the debt.

Link…you will need to sign up.
https://www.finncap.com/research-portal?#/portal/finncap/research/8_4e9fa94a-f254-4bb5-b3a2-ee7b32814e6e

Re…on the plus side they just secured £14m of contracts.

Just another burden…Wafer thin margins will evaporate under the pressure of unrelenting inflationary pressures for the remainder of this year and the whole of next year. If you thought 2022 was bad, 2023 is going to be even worse.

Bob has just delivered you a profit alert. What part of that do you not understand?

gdog....Hisense tunes into USL’s fast-growing leagues for multi-year sponsorship...

https://www.insideworldfootball.com/2022/04/07/hisense-tunes-usls-fast-growing-leagues-multi-year-sponsorship/

gdog, Perhaps Costco shelves are jam packed with Hisense TV's, in prep for mass demand/sales ahead of the World Cup in November.
https://hisense.co.uk/blog/fifa-app-to-launch-on-hisense-connected-tvs-exclusively-ahead-of-fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022/

https://hisense.com.au/blog/hisense-becomes-official-sponsor-of-fifa-world-cup-qatar-2022/

But please note, this does not mean that you will be able to view games from the upcoming Qatar World Cup on Hisense TV's as these are covered by existing broadcast rights.

Millions of Hisense TV's being sold.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hisense-tvs-volume-share-of-shipment-ranked-top-2-worldwide-maintaining-growth-for-3-consecutive-years-301614577.html

Re...A few weeks ago, when I was at my local Costco, I walked through the TV section. It was jam packed with Hisense TVs. Go figure.

And all of them collecting that valuable VIDAA viewing data for Tremor client's exclusive use/sale.

A few extracts from the Amobee acquisition RNS…

Acquisition is expected to create one of the most compelling and scaled CTV and video end-to-end platforms in the market.

Transaction expands Tremor International's self-service DSP, CTV, and video reach, while creating new technology and partnership opportunities, including the ability to integrate major linear capabilities.

And this relatively important prediction (at least for me)….Acquisition is expected to drive accretive financial growth within first twelve months of completion.

Regarding Ad spend for the final half of this year….
Ad spend predictions are expected to be the highest ever for a US Primary election and ramping up from September.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-10/political-ad-spending-for-midterms-set-to-hit-record-9-billion
In November we have the World Cup where VIDAA has exclusive rights….
https://www.dentsu.com/news-releases/dentsu-ad-spend-forecast-july-2022-release#top

Economic factors...Some financial pundits are already forecasting that the measures currently being taken by the UK and other European countries to cap energy costs for citizens and businesses will put a cap on inflation and relieve wage demand pressures going forward. The deep recessionary doom and gloom forecasts appear to be lifting to talk now about a shallower recession, softer landings and the like, but tempered here by the impact of our growing Government borrowing levels (currently at 96% of GDP at c. £2.4 trillion), rising borrowing costs and creaking finances. How will the markets react to all this, I wonder?

gdog…your assessment here is likewise to my own and yea, when set against the sp today the ‘unearned’ that our top team have awarded themselves and continue to extract from this relatively small business, is indeed, painful. You, me, and I’d guess all invested here are super annoyed about it. However, set against this background, I do think Ofer Druker and Co are well on their way to building a very powerful machine in Tremor Int Ltd. It is my view also, that within the current environment and given the time predicted to integrate Amobee, I'd guess that we are still about 1 year+ away from Tremor realising its full potential.

With regard the buyback(s). My maths here may attract some correction but my calcs indicate that Tremor raised c. $147.9 million from the Nasdaq IPO. Equivalent to 15.5 million shares at $9.5 (c. £7.80) per ordinary share. From the buyback just ended, they bought c.13.7 million of those shares back at an average price of c. 45% less than they sold them for on the Nasdaq.
I think that is good business.
To date Tremor has accumulated 42.6 million Treasury shares from buybacks.
Like you, I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t believe that this business will reward me one day in the not too distant future and when it does, those Treasury shares are going to be worth a lot of money. Assume a return to post IPO value alone at £8.50 (personally, I’m looking for something closer to 1.25 times that price before I start selling down some). At £8.50, that little pile of Treasury shares is worth c. £360million ($418 million). And so, for me, opportunistic buybacks, quite apart from the beneficial eps impact, are a worthy investment….but Tremor really does need to execute now in this next phase.

gdog …interested in your thoughts about how you will feel when the situation (share price) reverses, as you expect it to?