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Cont…Below is a recent link from AdExchanger ….
Ad Tech Stocks Rebound – But Can It Last? | AdExchanger
Regarding DTC/Retail Media…Extracts from the above….
Ad tech companies are tying their hopes to two main trends: CTV and Retail Media.
LiveRamp’s boasted of two account wins: the European retail giant Carrefour and Ahold Delhaize, which operates Giant, Stop & Shop and other grocery chains. He said LiveRamp now works with eight of the 10 largest retailers in the US.
Magnite, too, which is not a natural retail media partner like LiveRamp, is still in on retail.
Continued...
SNN… Well, a spade is a spade and even though Pubmatic’s 3Q results already heralded the possibility of a follow through for Tremor, Tremor’s 3Q, which followed a poor 2Q, came through as a major disappointment.
I can’t blame you for throwing in the towel. I’m in here 10years+ now and I too, ruminated, as the market opened last Monday and just a finger-twitch away from completely bailing out of this stock. I’m still in despite a decade of ups and downs and shattered hope.
With little in the way of positives and so much uncertainty ahead I’ve had no desire to post here, however, along with the news that you are leaving us I wanted to say thank you for what I would say has been the most informed erudite and valued contribution that I have experienced on a bulletin board. I hope that we will see you back again in the not too distant.
Before you go, perhaps you can clear my head in regard to a few of the observations you’ve made recently….
Re your… I fear that TRMR has positioned itself wrong and will fall behind the sector. They seem 'big' on DTC (direct to consumer) and want to expand in this area and for this to become semi performance based…
What I’ve taken from Tremor and Pubmatic’s 3Q conference calls is this. Direct to Consumer, DTC/Retail Media ad spend took a sizable downturn during the third quarter, but truth is, the decline in spending in this vertical really started to be felt in 2Q22 and then extended into the whole of the third qtr. By the time Tremor announced its 2Q results it was already halfway into its third qtr (as indeed were our peers) and therefore, I feel, Tremor was already aware of what was happening in the DTC/Retail Media vertical as early as 2Q but at that time was (probably) unable to determine how long the drop was going to last. Hence Tremor’s decision not to provide 3Q guidance along with its 2Q results. Pubmatic reported the same fall-off in revenue in this vertical and discussed this topic during their Q and A session. From what has been said at both CC’s, it looks like DTC/Retail Media ad spend fell quite dramatically during 3Q and having become apparent in the second quarter, it continued into and throughout 3Q. At present and it looks like there is still no sign of a lift. This vertical appears to have been impacted the most by the current macro environment, but looking forward, I don’t think that they are thinking that it will remain a forever dead revenue source. Pubmatic remains confident that DTC/Retail Media will eventually recover, but I think this sector needs to get through (at least) the first two quarters of 2023 before there is much hope of that. Continued…
A strong call from TTD. Predicts accelerating growth through 4Q and well beyond with CTV leading the way and becoming the 1st dollar spend place in 2023. Very positive for 2023 despite prevailing macro uncertainty. The TTD's Conference Call is really worth listening too, particularly the Q & A.
TTD ctv is the fastest growing part of its business. TTD prediction...CTV is going global...https://events.q4inc.com/attendee/565120202
Magnite 3Q22 results... https://investor.magnite.com/news-releases/news-release-details/magnite-reports-third-quarter-2022-results
TTD 3Q results...
https://investors.thetradedesk.com/news-events/news-details/2022/The-Trade-Desk-Reports-Third-Quarter-2022-Financial-Results/default.aspx
For what it's worth. I doubt even good numbers for 3Q22 and 4Q22 for Tremor and peers, will stay the macro uncertainty that is looming over calendar 2023. The first two quarters of next year will be a real test. Personally, I've buckled down on any aspiration of a phoenix inspired adtec upturn much before the second half of next year. That's the way things are macro wise....and you just gonna have to wait it out. As I see it anyway.
If I've deciphered the CC correctly, it appears that Pubmatics' Display Advertising revenue took a sizable hit in 3Q. And as that side of the business equates to around 73% of Pub's revenue, this is what has done the damage in this qtr. That side of their business isn't likely to improve in the short term either by the sound of it, hence the poor outlook. On a positive for Tremor, Video/CTV grew at 45%.
Perions' results tomorrow will be an interesting comparison.
Magna’s advertising ad spend predictions….and, maybe, the saving grace for Tremor between now and end of what is shaping up to be, a difficult calendar 2023, for ad spend.
In the Short term (2H 2022)…. cyclical factors: Billions of ad dollars will be spent by political campaigns in TV, direct mail, and digital media. (Outside of the USA, the World Cup should impact 4Q ad spend favourably).
In the mid-term (2023)…. there will be multiple organic growth factors, driven by marketing technology innovation: Retail media networks bringing below-the-line marketing budgets into digital media, programmatic spending in digital audio and digital OOH formats, and the expansion of AVOD (ad supported video on demand) and CTV advertising with new ad-supported tiers from Disney+ and Netflix.”
For 2023, Magna is predicting a heft 32.7% increase in AVOD (ad supported video on demand), OTT and CTV advertising in the U.S (with new ad-supported tiers from Disney+ and Netflix).
https://www.tvtechnology.com/news/magna-predicts-75-drop-in-2023-long-form-video-advertising
Totally Plc... drifting back down to its 2 year low of 18p to 20p. Break that and you may well end up at 10p.
https://news.sky.com/story/diamonds-panmure-gordon-plots-merger-with-listed-rival-finncap-12723327
unhooked, re your...They might actually benefit from this.
Prey, explain. I'm all ears.
Renewed concerns that Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor, and the Treasury are looking to cut budgets in all gov departments, including NHS. That’s why Totally is taking another knock today. My guess, more angst to follow on the 31 Oct and Totally will continue to slide lower.
Laticfanatic, set against the case that I've just put to you in my last post, explain how a dividend "would have bolstered the price much better" ?.
With regard the buyback(s). Without a doubt, there are two sides to be listened too when arguing the pros and cons of buybacks, so I guess consensus here is unlikely. For me, the $75 million Tremor spent on the last buyback strikes me as dam good value. Quite apart from the analytical arguments around ROE, ROA, reduced share count/PE, a counter for SBC and all the rest, it was for me just plain and simply good value and a good time to do it, given the economic environment and the undervaluation of Tremors stock...My maths here may attract some correction but my calcs indicate that Tremor raised c. $147.9 million from the Nasdaq IPO, equivalent to 15.5 million shares at $9.5 (c. £7.80) per ordinary share. From the buyback just ended, they bought back c.13.7 million of those shares at an average price of c. 45% less than they sold them for on the Nasdaq…..I think that is good business…..To date Tremor has accumulated 42.6 million Treasury shares from buybacks. I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t believe that Tremor will reward me one day in the not-too-distant future and when it does, those Treasury shares are going to be worth a lot of money. Assume a return to post IPO value alone at £8.50. At £8.50, that little pile of Treasury shares will be worth c. £360million ($418 million). And so, for me, opportunistic buybacks, quite apart from the other beneficial impacts as above mentioned, are a worthy investment.… As far as I am concerned, while the exchange rate is as favourable as it is and the stock as battered down as it is right now, Tremor can have another go at buying its own shares, with my blessing. In my view, another $20 million buyback right now makes perfect sense. It’s money in the bank for a future date whereas a dividend is a complete waste of cash.
For clarity, I looked at the purpose of doing a Strategic Review....quote, A strategic review is a structured process to identify new value-creating opportunities within a business.
So, on that basis you may well be correct, Tricky.
Tricky...just hang on in there. Frustrating as it is, this downturn will work through in its own time. When it does, watch out above.
TV and CTV Performance measurement is the next big thing/requirement from Marketeers and Brands. Ofer Druker touched on this point in his Beet interview.
Extract…But the bigger picture, bigger than the two companies (Amobee+Tremor), is how the acquisition is positioned for the evolution of connected TV.
Druker says he believes marketers will soon start to demand performance capabilities from TV, in a way few are asking for today.
“Performance will come into CTV,” he says. “The Amobee platform is very equipped to conduct performance marketing or what we call ‘soft performance’.
Related video...
https://twitter.com/Beet_TV/status/1569363360776392704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Escreen-name%3ABeet_TV%7Ctwcon%5Es1