Member Info for r7632

https://www.lithiumamericas.com/thacker-pass/

According to this they have 3.1 Mt Lithium vs BCN 8 1 Mt Lithium and only a 46 Year life of mine. Which I assume is because of the higher rate of extraction and less Lithium.

Seems to be a similar $4,000 t to produce LCE.

Cost of plant seems lower at $581 million for 30k t per year, $1059 million for 60k t.

Won't Ganfeng already have that from BCN for use at Thacker pass. Also I thought that BCN had said it was using existing proven/conventional technology/chemistry to get from Clay to Lithium.

From what I be heard it is Teslas' approach to get Lithium using Sodium had people scratching their heads on how that could be done.

Not to keep on but I thought Thacker pass still had a way to go before it gets to where BCN is. I thought they hadn't got water rights, permissions and EPC sorted at Thacker Pass.

For instance this article https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/07/30/2070168/0/en/Lithium-Americas-Announces-Release-of-Draft-Environmental-Impact-Statement-for-Thacker-Pass-Lithium-Project.html says they are still working on Definitive Feasibility Study, DFS, in July 2020.

So that 50% in two days since news.

I think we can expect a decent upgrade in BCN SP on News of EPC.

I'm not concerned as the prospects of this being a multiple of current SP are probably one of the best you could find.

Just a thought on timelineds. The EPC is running late . But as it was supposed to be a 18 month build phase with a 6 month contingency we could be halfway thru build by end of 2021.

But lack of announcements, and previous missed timelines suggest this is not likely.

I think if they have started building the mine then 120p +++ ( above target Price). If the EPC published then 100p. If target in EPC is 50k tonnes per annum 100p+++.

Realistically I would expect half NPV halfway thru build phase as nearly all risk like cost overruns will be known.

It could be a lot higher if Lithium prices increase because any extra price is pure profit. That is the cost of production will be the same regardless of Lithium selling price.

https://www.mining.com/lithium-americas-shares-up-on-thacker-pass-approval/

I thought BCN was ahead of Thacker pass on approvals etc and was just waiting on EPC and financing.

Still it just goes to show what publishing the EPC might do for the SP

I thin it would be interesting to see the costs so far of the Zinwald investments versus what value has been added to the Market cap of BCN.

Was it a complete waste of time and money?

Have BCN made a loss so far?

How much was the loss/gain?

I think that Europe and China will be the big force for change to EV. The banning of ICE vehicles has more support there than in the USA. Just like they are far more into wind power in Europe. Coal and fracking are big in USA and will take time to persuade them not to continue with those. Especially fracking which makes them independent of OPEC.

Still things can change under Biden. I think the main problem is lack of tax on Petrol in USA. It's just too cheap.

Yep £491,000 in Buys. Maybe it took a while to fill the trades and only reported when complete so as not to affect the sell price. Are they allowed to do such a thing?

Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
13-Jan-21 13:44:51 66.20 45,317 Buy* 63.00 66.00 30.00k O
13-Jan-21 16:35:55 66.53 437,500 Buy* 63.00 66.00 291.07k O
13-Jan-21 09:53:13 66.25 60,357 Buy* 63.00 66.00 39.99k O
13-Jan-21 12:21:16 66.00 50,000 Buy* 63.00 66.00 33.00k O
13-Jan-21 09:36:35 67.00 77,592 Buy* 63.00 66.00 51.99k O
13-Jan-21 09:33:50 67.00 74,607 Buy* 63.00 66.00 49.99k

Not from The Brokers point of view. That is there are treated as Stocks and Shares. For Instance Baillie Gifford Greater China Fund incurs charge from the Brokers, Scottish Life does not. I switched from Greater China to Scottish Mortgage and saved £17 per month in charges.

There are Investments where you double your money or lose 80%.

At least least here you get a steady rise over the years. So excellent for your Pension.

I have been in and out of this share for years. I sold out about £5 per share. Bought back about £8 per share. So lost out during that period. But since buying back its now £12 per share. So I'm pretty happy. I will be selling now and again as it is in my pension, and my pension is in drawdown - that is a regular m0nthly pension payment needs to be funded.

I expect it will continue to grow and I regard it as a safe investment. And unlike an Investment Trust there are no charges.

It is expected that the 44% will be diluted to obtain financing to build mine. And 50% is still owned by receivers of solar world.

So although it may bring in some money to BCN I dont expect if to be significant.

I think the NPV of $1.25Billion will be reached when Production is started for stage 2, 35k T P/a

However I think it will be proportional to the Lithium Price and/ demand/supply forecast. For instance Lithium @ 11k T is 7K profit per tonne. If Lithium price rises to 15k Tonne then that is another 4k profit or/4/7 Profit increase. So a NPV of £1.94 billion.

Also if they produce 50 kT pa (an option they are looking at) That is another 2/3 so £3.26 Billion NPV

So all in all the prospects for a huge gain is there. The demand is there. The resource is there. The ability to expand is linear. So these are not unrealistic expectations for 5 years out.

Target 118p.

I think using a lot of water in a desert would always pose a problem. But on the other hand not a lot of indigenous population in the desert to complain about that. There will be the usual eco warriors complaining.

But overall I feel the extract of the Salt resources would be more constrained than other sources of Lithium.

Not really a concern for BCN unless they find some other less water resource intensive method of extracting there. But even then the demand will be outstripping supply in a few years. And Sonoras' cost of production is extremely competitive - and already has offtake agreements in place .

Of course there is an upside in that restricted supply from Chile would mean higher Lithium prices and and Increase in Market Cap for BCN.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/01/10/catl-putting-3-billion-into-3-new-battery-factories-lg-chem-doubling-its-china-made-battery-production/amp/

Lots more Lithium required.

I was trying to compare the Current Market Cap vs NPV. $1.987Billion vs NPV $1.1Billion for the Argentinian CAUCHARI - OLAROZ Brine in Development. And the Thacker Pass NPV $2.1 Billion still in Feasibility study phase I think.

So what do people think the market cap represents as a proportion of each project. The worst would be 1.987 of 3.2 or 2/3rds of total NPV.

So if BCN got to 2/3rds of its NPV we would be looking at a Market cap of £560 Million or 4 times current sp.

My feeling is the Market Cap is heavily weighted to the Project in Construction and maybe an 80/20 Split. Which would mean a BCN Market cap of £780 ish Million once construction under way.

Anybody with a more accurate analysis?

Just having thoughts on where this may go as we are expecting the EPC from Ganfeng this quarter. (Ganfeng have 51% ownership of CAUCHARI - OLAROZ)

https://electrek.co/2021/01/08/the-netherlands-69-all-electric-market-share/

https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/battery-metals-investing/lithium-investing/lithium-outlook/?mqsc=E4125389

Lots of good news. LCE demand up 23% year on year. Lithium Hydroxide demand up 33% year on year.

Supply/ demand balance in 2021.