Member Info for r7632

Correction 97,666,667 new shares and 43.80% of Share in share.

Still not bad to get this moving.

Curious to see is the NPV of $802,464,000 is £594,417,778 Post Tax

And we go to 320,648,504 shares in issue are we looking at 184.8p to reach Post Tax NPV.?

Quick Calculation $60 Million USD is £43.95 Million GBP @ 45p share that's 10,564,904 new shares or about 4.74% of current share in issue.

Not bad.

My understanding is new shares are at a discount to market to get people to buy.

I would expect to see this rise above this years high of 67.99p after it it complete on 8th Feb.

But we will have and EPC as mentioned in the RNS now $407 Million USD. Be financed and ready to start build.

We should start to see real value appear in the Share price soon.

Not sure what that will be - target price was 118p. I expect the broker will re-rate that after the 8th February.

Anyway something more interesting and cheerful than Covid news.

It appears Ganfeng move at a snails pace. Always delay the next move as approvals needed from various CCP comittees. Anouncement wait 3 to 6 months. Another anouncement. Ad infinitum. At least the sp had gone up since their initial investments. Slowly but surely we'll get there.

I reckon big factor will be Covid Vaccines allowing the World Economy to take off after making an almost 2 year hit to Incomes.

I don't expect that before the end of the year.

The only possible upside this year is if the SFO ever closes the case, with or without fines.

https://youtu.be/O5dOcCi-U5o

The UK has ordered 60 Million does and it is produced in Teeside, UK.

Of course we expect the EU will claim ownership, and that all of the vaccine must go to them first.

I think I like that Bacanora is mentioned in the sentence as

Lithium America
Galaxy Resource
Albermale
SQM
Orocobre
Livent
Millenial

That is the broker considers them as a serious player in the market.

Tesla wants their Battery suppliers to increase production and Tesla will buy them. The are producing batteries themselves to supplement Panasonic, LG, CATL etc.

Tesla earnings call. 4680 batteries going well. 10gwh already installed capacity.

Demand is rising fast.

As we know form factors and chemistries developed by Tesla get adopted by other Manufacturers.

Dont really care. I want my vaccine , and to spend rest of 2021 on holiday spending money I havent been able to spend over the last year.

It's an attitude of mind. Pent up demand just waiting to be released. I cant be the only one ready to go on a spending spree as things get back to normal.

Shell do charging on some forecourts. There is a Petrol station in Fulham that is being converted to all Electric Charging points. The only problem is they charge 39p KW for Electricity which is I think one of the most expensive providers out there. Bar Source London which charge 60p Kw and Ionity at 79p kw.

Ubitricity did charge 24p kw pay or on subscription 16.2p kw

Option Residential Pro1
Monthly rate £ 7.99
Unit rate per kWh 16.2p
Plug-in fee2 19p
SmartCable 7.4 kW/32A £ 299

I might have used them but Barnet have chosen CityEv for Lampost charging and they charge 34p kw. And for some reason their Lamppost chargers only give 3kw hr Where as Ubitricity advertise 5kw charging from Lampposts.

Still if they roll this network out nationally I might join it.

Just a thought on NPV for Lithium America they used a Lithium Price of $12,000 per tonne, BCN I think is using $11,000,
As in both cases the cost per tonne is estimated about $4000 per tonne they were calculating profit at $8,000 and BCN at $7000 per tonne. Which is 14.2% more.

So how would that affect the NPV and SP projections if we used $12,000 as our Lithium price estimates for production.

Also the BCN presentation for January 2021 https://www.bacanoralithium.com/investor-relations/restricted-company-presentations/ have not changed the NPV after Ganfeng increased its stake at project level to 50%. Or are we expecting revised documents?

If we have current trading range of 63-66p I would think 87p on news is pretty low. All guess work as market can jump and I was a shareholder back in 2018 when it went to 145p.

Still any news will consolidate sp in higher range. I'm still waiting on that ever elusive 118p target price to be reached. And I think after Ganfeng took their stake from 29% to 50% at project level that was not reduced. In fact I think it went up a little to get to 118p - it added to the value because it added more confirmation that Ganfeng want this to go forward, takes away risk, and decreases the money BCN need to find to start building the mine.

BCN has not changed the NPV since Ganfeng upped their stake to 50% at project level. So we go with that NPV.

I think it will be market cap close to or above NPV. The so will depend on how the financing is arranged. More shares issued will mean each share will be less. So worst case 50% more shares you'll be looking at 330p a share to get NPV. 25% more shares you'd be looking at 500p. For comparison look at Lithium America market cap and they are not producing yet.

Its at Market rates. So if 11k t market rate that is what they pay. This then goes to pay of debts and expand mine increasing its market cap. When in profit and not expanding some will go to reserves and some will paid out in dividends and they get their share depending on number of shares held.

Bare in mind new companies don't pay dividends. Look at Tesla. Not expecting dividends there. But SP rises.

I am in this for Market Cap appreciation not waiting on dividends. That way you pay tax on Capital gains when you want. That is you can plan tax years and move from one year to another.

Mixing £ and $

Should be 270P to give Market Cap as 65% of NPV

Comparison to LAC Current Market Cap $2.81 Billion. NPV of Thacker Pass $2.6 Billion (not completed DFS) and Cauchari-Olaroz $1.1Billion - Due to be in production 2022. So Market Cap is 75.9% of NPV, most of which belongs to Thacker Pass which hasn't completed a Definitive Feasibility Study yet. Or 2.55 Times Cauchari-Olaroz. So I would guess Cauchari-Olaroz is fully represented in Market Cap for its NPV $1.1 Billion. That would leave Thacker Pass as $1.7 Billion Market Cap Value of $2.6Billion NPV , or 65% of NPV valued in Market Cap.

So by end of 2021 to middle of 2022 we could see BCN at NPV in Market Cap of $1.25Billion. and now should be $812 Million (65%) Just using reasonable comparison to LAC . So we could be looking at SP of 364p on new as we are ahead of Thacker Pass on Definitive Feasibility Study, permissions, permits etc and that would bring us in line with LAC NPV to Market Cap ratio.

Any thoughts?

https://youtu.be/8MTQnFrs8m4

Demand is going to be so high Tesla needs more Lithium Hydroxide once Austin and Berlin Giga factories start producing. Huge demand for Cyber truck and Tesla semi needing huge batteries.

Didn't BCN start EPC in 2019. I've seen nothing about EPC for Thacker Pass.

How long will it take them?

I assume they will need one?