Member Info for Quiggers52

Over life of mine, assuming Rh tanks to $6,000 p/oz (it is currently $12,000 p/oz), at no additional cost, the upside is estimated at $250m based on 6% core samples.
The integrity of Jaco is something admirable. I can think of so many CEOs who would be exploiting this type of news and ramping the stock, hell, some of them do that on no news at all.
This is gold.
No wait, its Rh lol

Ha! you are right - 97.3%
Although the EBITDA and Net Profit margins fell 11.5% and 9.3% respectively, earnings are up 15% from prior year for Q1, and Q2.
Solid disciplined performance again from the Team Jaco.

So again, the basket price rev to net rev ratio maintains consistency at 78%.
My basket price was slightly under by $25 but net profit overestimated by 2.6m so need to look at why net margin fell to "only" 37% lol. ... Only....cannot believe I wrote that.
Good to see prod oz strong at 19.2.

"appealing mauling"
sounds like a 1970s US punk band

Fingers crossed.
GLA

What I remind myself is that Mr. Market valued this deal in terms of cash flow to equity at £22m. (Simply take the pre admission price of 15p from the post admission price of 25p and multiply by the shares outstanding.)
Make your own mind up about whether that represents intrinsic value.
They obviously see the CPs not being fulfilled as a significant risk.

sorry £31m with 75, £38m with 85.
(Need to refresh my memory on the short term and long term debt )

So about H1 22 $38.5m as profit with a break even of $35 assuming average of £75.

if you take BOPD of 4,700 net to AET (from RNS) and bbl/d price of a conservative $75 this gives sales of $57.8M for H1 2022.
(Assuming 10% downtime for maintenance etc.)
Obviously that is not profit. One would need to net out an all-in costs per day

The basket price rev to net rev ratio is pretty consistent in last 4 quarters: 77%, 78%,73% and 71%. If that consistency is maintained, on your numbers , 6E rev is around $31m
Take your point about holiday period but this did not impact last year where net margin increased from 27% (Q1) to 44% (Q2)

Basket price of $2,407 for a net profit of $16.3m - just for laughs.
Anybody?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/x4ihp9bF/

See circle Rift.
Some people think TA is nonsense including Candlestick patterns.
I keep an open mind and use information - all information - as a benefit but without being dogmatic.
BR

Fall is profit taking after a gravestone doji on the daily chart.
Happy to see it fall back hopefully to 25 again and then rinse and repeat with another rally on good news for a 25% return.
IF the deal`s CPS are fulfilled.
You either believe or you do not and if the latter, go to US T-Bonds or UK Gilts. Here is not the place.
Interestingly, for 2023, S&P 500 is estimated at a 9% return with a 4% risk free rate and 5% Equity Risk Premium (Source: Stern Business School)

When to sell? Always difficult. Came across a decent old school Ben Graham method. It assumes we have a target price, an exit price (think stop loss), a time line (in years or pro rata), and a risk factor.
GC - L(100%-C)/YP
where G is the expected gain in "points" [think £ or $] in event of success
where L is the expected loss in "points" [think £ or $] in event of failure;
C is the expected chance of success expressed as a %
Y the expected holding time
P the current price
So if I buy at 100 and sell at 130 I have made 30% (130 - 100/100) *100. But that assumes an acceptance of always getting to the "finish line" with the 100m being flat and easy. If the price had dropped 2% to 98 I would be out but the above ignores this which is not helpful.
But, what if that 100m were easy up until 75m then the last 25m were shark infested waters? A prudent investor might consider bailing out at 75% thinking only a fool would carry on. (the analogy with sharks and Usain Bolt is admittedly my own but it seeks to illustrate risk.)
If we attribute: a current price of 100, a "target" price of 130, an exit (stop loss) price of 98, a success/fail rate of 75%/25% and a holding period of 12 months we arrive at a sell price of 122.
130 would be/might be reached if the weighting were 100 win/0 fail.
I like this because it validates the exit. Of course, it is a judgement call on the risk factor. And nobody has a crystal ball. But it does consider the downside and does not ignore it.
If you just want to buy and hold in perpetuity then selling is not relevant anyway.
If however you like me struggle with an exit price, Ben Graham`s formula might be of some help

When a multimillionaire holds SLP, I know I`m in good company!!

For me the much much shorter time frames meant the limitations were too stressful. The only way I found to make any money was to use leverage and even then with sizeable stakes. Which of course could move in the wrong direction. I found when they did I need to exit immediately to keep the loss to a minimal. For me, much to stressful. Hedge funds do not use CFDs and if you look at the returns you do not make as much as going loss pound for pound and you lose more pound for pound. The idea of selling short appeals sometimes but if CFDs are the only way to do it then caution is needed!
With swing trading I found this much much easier and more profitable because unlike the above where the losing horse race ticket was just thrown in the bin, with the latter I could take it back to the bookies day after day, after day, (up until the stop loss of course).
Having said that I still maintain a trading account and any wins goes into the proper one - the SLP fund or other like it. A few bob now and then for fun, it all helps. Until of course you have a bad day and think uggh... these things suck!
As others have said, over and over, traders (online - think that muppet Greg Secker and his "second home in the Scottish Highlands" ROFL) do not seem to make money trading, they make money teaching it. Mining the miners.
I could not do it for a living, day in, day out, it would drive me bonkers!
As you say, the trend is your friend. Cliché it may be, but that is it.

Real time using CFDs (but not gold) but very risky whatever the asset class and quite exhausting. My experience was that the "wins" were never on parity with the "non-wins". With the former - if I held on a few moments I might earn a few bob. With the latter, if I held on the same amount of time, my loss seemed to dwarf the prior win. That was of course using leverage to trade short and well as long.
I moved away and used a more swing trade long only strategy and that proved much more successful and less risky with a 80% success rate over 40 or so positions. Hardly statistical in terms of "proof".
I used the slow stochastic in an uptrend and not much else.
I`d be interested to know how you get on with IG (I used T212)

Will certainly make the basket price for Q2 "interesting" :)
Interestingly I had reports of two friends in the last two months both had their cat converters nicked again. One of them was in broad daylight with one of the reprobates actually holding the persons front door closed from the outside stopping them coming out the front door. The nerve of it?!

Anyone know why?

$ US 35m FCF p.a. based on:
75pp barrel IIRC - (might be lower than that, cannot recall 100%)
The numbers are not the issue. They won`t exist without a deal completing. Looks like AET assumed this risk and cannot mitigate it or shift it.
It is what it is.