Member Info for Quiggers52

Foo-kin-hell another 7.66% drop in 1 day to $9,650. Inertia for me is not an option now.
Okay, so if this continues, running a DCF calc at Rh $5k per oz gives $1,580 basket or $35m net earnings which I make it NPV of 70p - 75p at nil growth, 10 yr cash inflows discounted back at 12% with an exit multiple of 5.
(Assumes other PGMs 4E hold)
Fund 1 (66% of SLP) hold and buy the dip if this happens. If it goes the other, way then all good.
Fund 2 (33% of SLP) exit after ex divi, wait for the drop and buy back in.
I`m reminded of the cash, the divis, and $35m is not bad to top up their retained earnings each year and that is worst case but could this go sub 5k? Wow....blows the EV thesis out of the water
Time to hedge.

Got a link?
30 days to the expiry of the Long Stop Date.
It is shi* or bust now, a 3rd extension of can-kicking surely puts this is real doubt IMHO.
Fingers crossed

Well the other PGMs combined there is only the other 50%.
Other projects pale besides Volspruit
This is all about the Rh which is the other 50% of their basket. Jaco himself emphasised the Rh factor which is why they re-did the prior scope study. In an interview it was clear as a bell he was selling Rh as the driver - you could see the glint in his eye even:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biM6XTLPBUM&t=723s
The sharp fall continues daily down again 2.4% today. An uncomfortable truth when 3 month T-bill are yielding 4.75%
Equities feeling the pain.

Looks like the 10k is going to arrive sooner rather than later with a drop in Rh of 11% in a month., 6% today. Ouch
This is a pure divi play for me now, forget about reaching 130 let alone 150. Is not going to happen.
But if retreats to 100 that is a 9% return over the year and if below, time to top up so every cloud as they say.
I`ve little doubt the SP might see intrinsic value one day. That is what they tell me anyhow.
But might have to wait a little bit longer and pass the baton to my grandchildren!
Sentiment in mining, Africa, Dollar/Rand, lack of pricing power, fear of EVs ousting cats, all one way: negative.
Depressing as this is my biggest holding.
Ce la vie.
I can wait.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRgjqDIhREo
at 25: 46 it is all about risk...." the creditor owns your business, that`s risk if you are the equity guy and the creditors got it you have a problem...you have nothing"
-per W. Browne of Tweedy, Browne.
There were opportunities to exit a few times. Let those who still ramp sink. Just do not sink with them.

He is an apprentice of the Greg Secker this is my second home castle in Scotland B/S with his trading den after flying over on his private jet from his third home Caribbean office.
Complete BS.
Anyone with serious money never ventured in here much less since the Ch 11
Those that did are retail punters gambling.
Quite sad to see the innocent (who obvs haven't a Scooby) and the so-called "brave" here get fleeced in equal measure.

Makes sense from whose point of view? The creditors...because no-one else`s point of view matters.
They (obviously) want their money. They are (more than likely as not) not going to get all of it . (Some will not see any of it.) So they would write off some of it and pocket whatever is left which cannot be invested into Cine 2 which does have value as a name. Cine 2 will maybe do well, who knows.
Before - a few months ago - there was hope value (a White Knight might ride in and make an offer). Today`s RNS looks to have put the kibosh on that.

Bullsbears:
** can you just take all the equity (literally everyone shares and become owners) ***
Cine have assets. They also have debt.
Assume they sell all the assets and use that to pay off their debt ... only their debt is too much after the asset sale so there is no equity.
Only debts that still needs paying off or waived.
So the senior creditors will argue over the bones to get what they can to the extent of anything not previously secured which is likely to be nothing much if anything. They might try to acquire and promote some IP and get a new "brand" up and running - Cine World Global Inc. - but existing Cine as a legal entity will likely be struck off the register and dissolved.
You might then wish to invest in the new co if it is not private.
Good luck to you if so do.
LTH holders have my sympathy. The Management here displayed utter arrogance and why some of you still speak fondly of "Mooky" - like he is your best mate - is beyond me..
Speculators have played their hand and that is the nature of their game.

Also, in historical terms, is it at parity with early August 2020 spot. We all know of course about the spike in the intervening years. But going back 7 years prior we have: `13: $1000; `14: 3833; `15: 2666; `17: 6000; `18: 7500; `19: 8666 (as around April each year).
SLP have modelled their data using RH at spot of 10k - which again is prudent and a nice spot price even if it is way off the ATHs. Those will not happen again but the point is, they don`t need to.

Err, thanks, but the market we knew all about this on the 12 Jan

see RNS of even date

Yes, it has to be full conviction or not at all and as you say take the opportunity if it slides but I`m acutely aware that there is an opportunity cost to this and my other main holding - SLP - is likely to do very well in the next 6 months if the forecasts turn out only to be only half right. They pay off 6 April (divi) so hopefully if AET does splutter then the tank can be refilled in readiness for the RNS that we are all waiting for....
COME ON AET - get those brown Manillas signed sealed and delivered...(joke btw)

In God We Trust
Trust ...Not a nice place to be
When all the downside sits with the Trustee as opposed to the Trustor.
Can see this drifting on past 31st for months...momentum grinding to a halt. Then sub 25. Hope I`m wrong.

Agreed, and there are the numbers (from QRs)
Actual rev:
Q1, Q2 21/22: $67,300,000
Q1, Q2, 22/23: $76,853,318
Increase: 9,553,318
Revenue growth = 14.20%

Net Profit:
Q1, Q2 21/22: $24,107,000
Q1, Q2, 22/23: $32,268,411
Increase: 8,161,411
Earnings growth = 33.85%

It is the sentiment in terms of location that keeps the SP down. And the lack of any purchasing power. But in terms of moat they have an edge. Why on Earth Seth Klarman (Baupost Group) bothers with buying 12m shares of TMQ only to then watch his holding decline by 33%... I might give him a call.

Quality management. They have assumed 10k Rh (it is currently 11,550) and an upper range discount rate of 17.5%.
As discount rates get higher the net present value of the cash flows decreases.
So, in a nutshell, this is conservative and prudent management accounting/financing.
Cost reduction too.
Sterling stuff!

It is a BB no insider information here, it is ALL opinion and speculation!
If this does not close, I for one am in the proverbial, underwater big time.
Dont tell me you are not concerned. But fine if you have no wish to share those concerns, I respect that. That is fine too. It is a free country.

Percentage of this not closing?
As unbelievable as that sounds it is now a stark reality. P Mc D would have to go surely? And Malcy would look a bit silly too. They all would.
I`m wondering if any of these "done deals" have ever gone so publicly wrong? Hope not.
10% for me this won`t happen. 90% it does.
Market reckons 60%.

The contract has already been signed as we know. There were two CPs -yet to be fulfilled - and neither of them have anything to do with funding.
The issue is probably the size of those envelopes. That is the risk and we all know it.
Not funding lol. I really wish it were THAT simple!

The Long Stop Date is 31 March.
If the two CPs have not been satisfied or waived by then, then either party may request a further extension (the 3rd) . The parties sittting down at the negotiating table are the ANPG and the Contractor Group.
There was mention in this BB talk of larger Manilla envelopes. Take from that what you will...
These delays cannot go on indefinitely as trust is eroded and atm this play is 100% trust.

There have already been two extensions. A third would be difficult, without more information. Just to post an RNS saying we have delayed again for another 3 months will look empty and shallow.
On the positive side, another drop means another top up.

So endeth the bear case.
the bull case:
PGMs in decline when Rh is at 12,100 p/oz? Forget 2021, everybody understands that was a one-off. Over historical 10 year the current Rh spot is hardly in decline when the asset comprising 50% of their basket is worth 6 x more than gold.
The normalised (six years) ROIC for this SA "miner" - wrong description really, they do not mine - is 18% which is comparable to Unilever. (Amazon is just under 10%. JLP is 8.5%. Rio Tinto (five years) is 21%)
They have not gone under their 200 day -:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jUR7fvkD/
Speculators come and they go. Long term investors do not really care much about these swings and simply take advantage.
The movement in the direction of finally recognising their assets other than the SDO is exciting. It could be game changing and leads me to the inevitable conclusion that should those deposits realize the potential talked about they could be a target. But we will see.