Member Info for Quiggers52

This is really useful - thanks for that. (I don`t doubt you btw)

You are here. So your judgment is as good (or bad) as mine!

Where do you get this intel from?

it is like you are a fly on the wall talking about tankers docking into Palanca and McDade and co putting in orders for his next Mont Blanc pen lol

Keep it coming and I hope you are 100% on the money.

As the saying goes, I would not want to be out over the week end!! 3.53% up this morning atow.

Agreed, he/she is a child; just ignore, and be HP.

Looking forward to getting into the detail of the Income Statement, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement, plugging the numbers in to get some hard data.

Been here since Sterling days pre Covid and intend to be here next decade with divis producing nice income. It will be a while yet, but they`ll come GW.

GLA

Yes, it looks to be creeping back

7 June 2024, this will hit 40p and then I will buy in - with mucho, mucho greed :)

So there we have it - 1p (or cash out of USD 3.36mn) another 425 squid which I wasn't expecting. Thanks Jaco et al. If this drops back to 40p then that is another 1063 shares to add to the bottom drawer.

Cycle will at some point start to tick back up it always does in the long term. Sort term this is not the place for investors.

Luna must be ecstatic - he/she gets their wish.

Nobody mentioned "special" dividend.

When (which Quarter) did SLP last fail to make a profit?

Rh is still more than double the price of gold with a fraction of the AIC (all-in-costs)

Either put the cash to use or distribute it but do not leave it doing zilch.

a buffer. against what? these guys are still profit-making. true, no where near as much but rh has been holding now for 6 months at a floor.

**** happens? a rainy day??

Anybody care to hazard a guess ???

I mean they have to do summat with that cash pile...

Not before 2028 is my guess. Reinvestment is obvs their game plan for the short to mid term.

If you want regular divis invest in SLP. 54% pay out ratio (TTM) and stacks of cash.

RH price (spot) is holding around $4,500 (> double gold price) and has been for some time. Production steady. Ambitious management but prudent.

Yes indeed Rift.

Oil Price: $75.00 | BOPD: 18,500 |Revenue per day:$1,387,500.00 | Revenue p.a.: $506,437,500.00 |JV share: 30% $151,931,250.00 | FCF to equity: $50,000,000.00 | implied Costs: $101,931,250.00 | Costs per day: $279,263.70 | Cost per BOPD: $15.10 | Costs per $ oil: $3,723.52

BREAK EVEN

Oil Price: $35.00 | BOPD: 18,500| Revenue per day: $647,500.00| Revenue p.a.$236,337,500 | JV share:30% $70,901,250.00 |Costs: $70,901,250.00 | Cost per day: $194,250.00| Cost per BOPD $10.50 | Costs per $ oil: $5,550.00

As the spot price rises, the costs per BOPD rise but the cost per $ oil drops

Whatever, this is now looking as though the patience has been rewarded.

As I mentioned earlier in another post, for me this is a long term hold and (hopefully) in time, with dividends for the loyal. Admittedly, this is a risky sector and there is the country risk.

On the other side of the balance, there is P Mc D and his team.

Let`s trust that 2024 will take AET into new heights

GLA

Hi Rift.

I assumed the capex and op costs or cash out were or are fixed. Understand that the cash in is a variable obvs depending on the spot price. As is certain costs like taxes which are linked to that variable. But I assumed costs not dependent upon the spot price and constantly moving as the spot moves

By taking 50m FCF against an assumed prod level of 18500 and working back we could arrive at an all-in cost per day if we know that AET break even is $35 spot. But this is not possible with variable cost levels which I do not really understand because the costs ought to be the same day to day week to week regardless of what the spot price is doing.

It is that $71m ($35 oil price break even) that I don`t get as on your numbers of $102m (which I agree with) it should be nearer to $50 :

Price VOL

$35.00 18,500 365 days

30%

70,901,250

Price VOL

$50.40 18,500 365 days

30%

102,097,800

(Obvs 365 days is not realistic but for this it does not matter.)

Prod of 25k BOPD at $75 is $616m p.a. at 90% efficiency

If FCF after o/h is $47m, on rev of $616m implies all in cost of $569m or $1.558m per day

Taking this and 25k prod gives a break even oil price of (allowing for rounding) $62

Does that square with your calcs?

Yes, agreed take it out and if not spend, then do what? Perhaps pay down personal debt at [5]% if anyone is mortgaged

Better option is to reinvest in the short term agreed.

Roger that - 53% ! at 31.75p

Thanks for that.

Very helpful.

GLA

Based upon projections of:

Revenue: [X]

Net Profit: [Y]

add back dep. and other non-cash items (less maintenance capex) : FCF (to equity): [Z] - 50%

Z is obtained obvs by "X" double "Y" e.g. rev = 200m, Y = 100m FCF = 50%

Not sure how the SP fits in, but what nos. do you have for X and Y to get Z?

Thanks for the info. Forgive the lazy approach. Has the break-even of $35/bbl shifted at all do they say?

Helps to take:

(a) BOPD x 330 (assumes 90% efficiency) , multiplied by an assumed $ rate for Brent for a gross revenue

(b) Deduct the all-in cost per day (includes all opex and capex) x 365

Last time I did this the net earnings numbers - Free Cash Flow to Equity - were around $35M p.a. but that was yonks ago and I am probably way way off!

GLA