Member Info for Quiggers52

i agree with the previous. stho is absolute ****ester in terms of his "advice" and i`m loving it because all of his sheep followers follow the herd and jump off the cliff like lemmings. this is exactly the kind of situation where buffett and co step in and make a killing. the intrinsic value of slp as a business has not changed one jot. the pgm market has changed. it will change again. but if you think the world will never need pgms then fine, sell up and walk.

i for one definitely do not believe that and will be accumulating with greed in the coming weeks.

but, each to their own.

Predictable. Trading on a non-cash adjusted PER of 12.5 which looks rich so see this dropping further before the recovery in PGMs which always comes back but for now it is down in the dumps but RH stable and slight uptick. For the faithful, this is a great time to accumulate.

I`m holding.

But then I`m not trading. If I were it would be out. For now.

Great to see this slipping back

Gonna use SLP divi to buy in more but HL not released yet - Goddamn thieves

I make it $170m with an allowance included for downtime/maintenance 87% efficiency.

Have not read the report yet; plan to this week.

Do you have an estimate of revenue for Financial Year End 2024?

I`ve heard $160m. $220m

Going once, going twice!!

Dealt with on the last few pages under 8. Subsequent Events

This month (June) $37,700,000 incoming (at $75 spot) leaving another 390,000 bbls as inventory

That`s another $29.2M @75

= $67M rev

Not counting daily c6054 bbls (at 87% efficiency)

(AET state the gross production of both Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A at 20,180)

I`m sure I read somewhere or it was common ground that break even was $35 spot but let`s break it down:

Revenue = $26.4M

After tax loss = $(2.8M)

"All-In Costs" therefore = $29.19M

Costs per day = $79,975.34

Gross Production BOPD: 20,180

Net Production (30%) minority interest BOPD: 6,054

Spot rate: $35

Net Revenue per day: 6,054 * $35 (spot) = $211,890.00

Costs per day of $80K vs revenue per day of $212K? Clearly then, break even is not $35 (as costs per day and revenue per day ought to be equal - not making a profit, not making a loss).

On these numbers I have break even of just under $14 which cannot surely be correct?

Thoughts...?

I agree 100%. We have seen these pull backs before and they are inevitable; in fact, for me, to be welcomed because I intend to hoover up as many as I can get each time

I keep breaking my own rules with AET. First, not more than 10% holding. Then 20%. Then 30%. It is now at 36% of my portfolio.

Then I said I would top slice at 50%. But I have changed my mind.

For me now, this is a pass on to your children kind of stock and in 10 years I`m confident this will have reaped the benefits of any investor daring enough to win.

Need to sit-down now and look at the data and do some calcs to reassure myself

I do, unfortunately. I worked for a firm where KKR "acquired" us and then got laid off shortly thereafter! One person`s "acquisition" is the counterparty`s "divestment"; it is just the other side of the coin.

The day-to-day management normally remains the same after the hatchet has been wielded!

BAU, yes indeed. Here, any PE would be buying Paul and his team. No doubt about that.

By "big boys" I assumed the OP meant one of the oil giants, not a PE, which is possible I agree.

Where is that crystal ball?!

Would imagine divestment of a start-up is the last thing on McDade`s mind; he has a point to prove, and he is making it

Since McDade`s strategy is hoovering up assets sold off by the "bigger boys" I`d say there are two hopes: one of them is Bob Hope and the other is ...

Hey Rift:

Two Qs if I may (always good to second 2nd opinions):

What`s your fair value?

Have you run a DCF valuation?

Muchas gracias

IIs will be waking up to this interesting fact here.

At 59p the Market Cap (MC) is £133,434,400.

Azule alone, prod. = 6,800 bopd [28% aggregate stakes in Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A] based on Jan - Apr 2024

Assuming USD of 75 and same prod to EOY = rev in GBP equal to 75% of today`s MC.

In 8 months, Azule rev ONLY = three quarters of today`s MC.

Wowzers.

(I`m not "Terry" btw. - whoever that is)

Who is Terry?

I`ve been here when this was a net net from the sterling oil days holding 186K shares at 16p aint going nowhere pal.

U R assuming 100% efficiency ("x 365" [days]) = no down time or maintenance at all . Hmmm. I don`t know about that.

We know that break even is $35 BOPD which I assume is ALL costs so if average spot is $84 then = $49 BOPD profit.

Efficiency of say 90% = 329 days

Production = 10k (see below)

From these inputs can be derived the target to be measured against market cap obvs a long way short of 0.5B USD!

What is not to like here ?!

Looking forward to that!

Agreed

I really do not understand the negativity here when SLP in a depressed market still manage to turn out 13% net profit margin. In tech, that would be the EBITDA target in certain sectors!

I will happily take the £500 divi and reinvest the lot here, for the long term.

Well-managed stock with trustworthy Directors are like rocking-horse sh*** in my experience and this factor gets completely ignored.

Ignore the naysayers, trust Jaco and Team and think long term is my suggestion.

But each to their own.

Thank You again SLP - you continue to impress!

Yep - I`m on a delay of 15 mins.

Fab.

Not there yet....!

49.8....just a matter of time

Not surprising with the buy backs going on supporting the share price.

The underlying RH price looks stable at 4,750 or thereabouts.

Be nice to have some news on the projects as that is the only internal catalyst that can move the needle here IMHO. SLP have sat on those assets for over a decade now. Perhaps Jaco realises that exploiting those commercial rights is the only way for growth, the recent history (spike in Rh) simply being a distraction albeit a welcome one, it was only ever going to be a white swan event.

Time will tell...