Member Info for Quiggers52

interest rates...What Interbank?
I`m on about yield on a 10 yr US Bond the default risk free rate in USD valuations.

That just tells us what we already know; completion early Q4.

The risk free rate (USD) is now a touch under 4% !
That makes the Equity Risk Premium higher.
Which makes the cost of capital (discount rate) higher.
A higher discount rate means a smaller net present value on future cash flows
So pre IPO start-ups are doing "down rounds" and post IPO tech companies continue to get hammered.
In all this tin-hat chaos flights to safety must include assets like SLP. We all know it. Soon, the market will know it.
GLA

Rh still holding firm at $14,000/oz for 2 weeks straight now.
China New Yuan Loans reported at CNY 2,470 Bn in Sep from CNY 1,250 Bn in the previous period. It was expected at CNY 1,800B.

Rosso: Due diligence (DD) is done PRIOR to acquisitions. The acquisition is done. So the DD is long done, the contracts are long signed. But they contain CPs - conditions precedent.
These are tied to aspects of third-party performance outside of AETs control e.g. the "Minister of the Interior" signing off a license, you get the idea.
So nobody, not even Paul McDade, can confirm when these CPs will be fulfilled. That is the market risk which is keeping this from hitting 40p + but when it comes, expect events to happen quickly.
GLA

"Multiple bounces off a rapidly rising 50 day moving average which is usually a leading indicator of future strength"
That author is looking at a different chart to the one I`m looking at.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xfCSRUzs/
it is only "rapidly rising" due to the re-listing and acquisitions .
TA is meaningless here. This is out and out fundamentals at play and the specifics of THIS business, this deal, this team, this product, (oil - rapidly rising). To read anything into TA is to confirm one doesnt really understand AET at all.
Soon, this needs to be announced. This is Q4. so.....

The due diligence phase is over and the contracts have been signed albeit with conditions precedent. If those CPs are not fulfilled then the director buys and us other holders are obvs disadvantaged. So she and we run that risk.
The fulfilment of those CPs is beyond her or anyone`s control. It is a market risk.
For that reason I don`t see a conflict or a need to refrain from buying if she wants to, accepting that risk.
Having said that, this is yet more gr8 news.
Olivia up again and the fundamentals of AET premised against much lower price.
Exciting. I cannot wait for the first set of results and reading the FCF. It will be well worth this wait !

OPEC+ cuts to drive Olivia to $100 /bbl by Xmas.
Remind me what the $36M FCF forecast was premised on...?!

40p gives a PE of only 2.78 based on est. earnings (FCF) of $36M
KIST is 31

Not sure about 3) and 4), SLP have been hammered on the ZAR/USD exchange rate over the last 12 months, up from the prior year (the $ fell against the ZAR in the last period and climbed the prior year)
"foreign currency translation differences: 2022 ($17,747,559) 2021: $24,461,386
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Uqsvd7wJ/

There is no doubt that the appeal was filed pre Ch. 11. Back in Feb IIRC.
If CP win, that is (more) bad news for CW
If CP lose, that is (welcome) good news for CW.
if the former, will CP ever see any of that dosh?
As I said, IDK and nobody does.; too many variables at play.

Assuming CP win?
Providing CW are not dissolved, the CP award falls into the bucket for distribution along with all of the other creditors.
What the outcome of that is in terms of who gets what, and how much, and when, and on what terms, nobody can say at all.
If CW do pull this off and get a substantial reduction in the damages awarded, it would most likely then be all over the news and provide a catalyst for a short term spike in the SP.
Whether that move could sustain itself after the speculators have exited is anybody`s guess.

Hello Jefff
I stopped reading at this point:
"the bankruptcy court found that claims arising from a postpetition, pre-confirmation contract were properly barred"
- simply because that tells us that this ruling was, in part at least, based on or derived from, the proper interpretation of a binding agreement between those parties (based obvs upon what they expressly agreed in the document).
What does that mean?
I`m saying - on this particular case - the outcome hinged upon its own set of facts. That is so often the case. One might be able to draw a wider general point from this of course but now I fear we run the risk of going down rabbit-holes unnecessarily.
Assuming CP win, the elephant-in-the-room is what good does that do them if the counterparty cannot meet the [huge] award? Not much. They would just have to line up with all of the other creditors perhaps? I don`t know.

Hi WoW, the Court has confirmed the appeal is going ahead so a Texas Bankruptcy Court has no jurisdiction to preclude this case from proceeding in the Ontario Appellate Courts, that much seems clear.
As for the outcome. Who knows. Recall, CW are the appellants here. There has been talk about the loss of synergies award being overturned. If that happens the loss of consideration award measure is even more costly, an outcome which obvs is not in CW`s interests.
The next few weeks will be interesting and my gut-feel is we will see a decision handed before Xmas as does not look to be an overly difficult matter. This will not be a "re-trial."
Trial by the court of first instance is (default) the "first and last night of the show".

Hi
I contacted the Ontario Court requesting a clarification as to whether or not the case was still proceeding. This is the response:

Good afternoon,

As per your email below, please be advised that this email is to confirm that the appeal is still going to proceed on October 12 and October 13, 2022.

Thank you kindly,

[name omitted]
Acting Intake/Records Coordinator
Court of Appeal for Ontario
130 Queen Street West
Osgoode Hall

The H1 results assume nil revenue as the two deals have not closed yet.
I`m eager to read the FY results!

In all of this sea-of-red with sharks in suits shorting Sterling (try saying that when you have had a few drinks() it is easy to overlook the fact that RH looks to be standing on firm ground at $14,000. Just about the only thing that hasnt is EGGS!
yep, Mr Strong at it again, pinching all of them for his daily breakfast

I cannot find any such article in the FT or Times

WoW - you have answered your own question: if CW gets dissolved, the damages against them get in effect dissolved too. They do not get carried over and there would be no "fresh" claim against NewCo unless the Arrangement Agreement made provision for that (highly doubtful).
This sort of phoenixing happens regularly with companies of similar names being incorporated : WoW Ltd; WoW (UK) Ltd; WoW (Global) Ltd, etc. When one closes down the other one opens up ... the operation doesn`t skip a beat.

O/T
Did Niemann cheat?
Magnus needs to get off his fence and produce some evidence.
Surprised Moke has not started proceedings for defamation. The fact he has not might be telling.