Member Info for Quiggers52

I`d try speculating in the Forex markets if you want instant wins but prepare for instant losses too.
This here is long term.
Boring I grant you!

agreed, about to blow

Rh starting to drop, 5% down in a week, it has been fairly flat for last 3 months.
Yet SLP SP going on a rally.

x 6 is actually 120p... with net profit of ($60m / 266,130,788) x 6
net profit also ignores non-cash items which makes this 126p
From £1, and a 26% return , well, I would be quite happy with whilst noting that the World`s strongest index, the S&P500, has dropped 19% in the last 12-months.

Looking very promising, it is not what is stated in comms to Investor Relations, but what is read in between the the lines.
Happy Days.

Don`t forget assets/businesses are not valued at 1 year`s earnings - in your break down - FCF at $42 - $50m - that is just for 1 year.

A DCF valuation takes into account 10 years future cash flows to equity, not just 1 years FCF!

It feels to me like Jaco and team are beginning to ramp up the growth strategy with promotion of the Northern limb exploration assets perhaps in an attempt to kick-start the next phase of interest in SLP independent of the price of Rh which is still maintaining strong support at 14,000 oz.
This is excellent news INHO.

The deal has already been signed.
It has not come into effect yet.
It will come into effect when the conditions precedent have been fulfilled.
I`ve already asked AET for their view as to what they are - specifically - and expectation of fulfilment because they are extremely vague in scope.
Not surprisingly, they did not respond except with information I already knew (a repeat statement in other words)
Such is the risk here.

Show me another plc anywhere in the world with 46.44% net profit margin last quarter?

I always find this a trifle confusing. 12 months to June 2021 they made a gain of $24.5m just on the exchange rate. From April 2020 to June 2021 the ZAR/USD went from 1 / 0.0520 to 1 /0.0736 or in other words, USD/ZAR - from 1/19.2 to 1/13.58
So at the start of the period I walked into a SA bank with $1 and walked out with 19 Rand. At the end of the period, I walked in with $1 and walked out with only 13.5 Rand.
Given that SLP have expenses payable in Rand one might assume that a 30% reduction in purchase power might offset any USD gain, but this appears not to be the case.
So in summary, if that is correct, and the USD/ZAR is low -13, 14 - this looks to be good. The higher it gets, the worse the currency impact.

You really don`t get it do you donmac....do you know what a CP is ffs?
Cloke is dotting the i` you fk idiot it is a condition precedent outside of their control, he not dotting anything.

Thank you for your question.
The outstanding conditions precedent relating to the Sonangol acquisition are (i) extending the Block 3/05 Production Sharing Agreement until at least 31 December 2040; this is an ongoing process between ANPG and the contractor group, and (ii) receiving governmental approvals on the transaction. On 19 October 2022, we announced extension of the long-stop date on the SPA from 20 October 2022 to 31 December 2022 to facilitate satisfaction of the conditions precedent, and we remain confident that the transactions will complete within the guided timeline of Q4 2022. Kind regards

Afentra

Relax! this deal will close, no loss of conviction here. If delay to next year then I start to lose conviction absent a reasonable excusing cause.

That is not fair and not right.
Anybody who know what a condition precedent is knows it is not within CEO or any other AET director`s power to promise fulfilment of the condition let alone by any "deadline" as it is based upon the actions of third parties.
He never promised that at all (nor could he).

BB can be helpful in picking up information (quickly) - provided the person is reliable.
Some are more so than others of course!
GLA

"Was the precedent a chapter 11 or chapter 7? There is a difference between bankruptcy protection and full liquidation/insolvency." - there is indeed, but CINE are insolvent on a balance sheet or cash flow test basis so C7 or C11 not relevant - they cannot meet their liabilities and are seeking protection from being sued so the creditor duty having arisen is crystal clear.
The point is about this duty being paramount and overriding members interests.
English law contracts and insolvency proceedings naturally.

Any talk about about the duty owed by directors to CINE members/shareholders overriding the duty owed by directors to creditors in respect of "approval" or rubber-stamping of any arrangements, can now firmly be laid to rest following the handing down by the UK Supreme Court on 5 October of BTI v. Sequana et al and I quote:

"The duty to consider creditors` interests arises when the directors know or ought to know that the company is insolvent or is bordering on insolvency or that an insolvent liquidation or administration is probable. But once an insolvent liquidation or administration of the company has become inevitable there being no light at the end of the tunnel as it is often described then the interests of the creditors become paramount"

https://www.supremecourt.uk/press-summary/uksc-2019-0046.html

Sonangol is not "done". It has not completed yet!
The asset valuation assumed a much lower price of oil IIRC.
If you think 50p however I`d take that and top-slice.
GLA

means with no date fixed for resumption.

Fair at 30p?
Thus pricing AET at £66m on expected annual FCF of $36m based upon a sub 70 b/oil vs. ANGS which is £52m whose FCF has been negative the last 7 years. (There is always jam tomorrow I suppose.)
Can I buy your 30p shares please - pretty please with sugar on top - wait, make it jam.