Member Info for Quickdraw18

I thought **** was the best of a bad bunch of pricks. I'd let **** head things up till Johnson is fit to **** this virus

WHO looks into report of Covid patients testing positive after negative tests

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/who-looks-into-report-of-covid-patients-testing-positive-after-negative-tests

Your correct nothing is confirmed. Though there are many strong signs, such as below quote and anecdotal LinkedIn interactions. We'll find out soon enough

"PrimerDesign was the first company to set up the test and we have collaborated with them to test real-life situations on patients returning from China"

Allah4uk do you have any suggestions for whose kits they could be using?

Dr Kidd (lead researcher) hae gone on record saying they used Novacyt kit and employees from both companies ate liking and sharing related articles on LinkedIn. A RNS would be required if qualification is successful. I expect we will find out in next two weeks.



"The operation is run by clinical scientist Stephen Kidd who previously told the Gazette: "Our small team of six have been working flat out. Testing has been successful, we've shared our data and are reporting to Public Health England on how we have done it.

"PrimerDesign was the first company to set up the test and we have collaborated with them to test real-life situations on patients returning from China"

https://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/news/regional/andover/18354750.basingstokes-super-fast-covid-test-set-rolled-across-uk/

Dr Fowler who is developing the method for a fast antigen LAMP test posted test time has been reduced to 4 mins. She's since deleted LinkedIn post. Keep an eye out for news on this next week. Hopefully we find out results of PHE qualification.

The testing method is being developed by Basingstoke hospital and in partnership with OptiGene (equipment) and Primerdesign / Novacyt, (test) .

I suggest checking out Dr Fowlers LinkedIn for updates and Primerdesigns Adam Herridge.
For the naysayers, Dr Fowler recently liked a post on Novacyts WHO approval

What's this Swansea talk Charlie? Fellow Jack myself

Well, well, well ££££

Hold your nerve, we are at the early stages of testing growth cycle.

I've faith that PHE will be paying close attention. The LAMP test comes along with Novacyt's Gold Standard test. I believe we will get an update within 2 weeks.

For all the new investors here try not to listen to these posters encouraging you to lock in profits.
Albert Einstein described Compound interest as "the eighth wonder of the world. He whounderstands it, earns it … he who doesn't … pays it.”

Novacyt can sell as many test kits as they can make, test kits will be in extreme demand for at least 6 months and likely 12, with a ramp down over a furher 6>12 months.

My advice to new investors is to monitor global testing rates, new cases and deaths. You can gauge the stage of testing market from this data. Being able to access this publicly available data levels the playing field with big finance. My portfolio is now up 50% since feb 24th, while the markets are down 30%. This is due to my checking COVID trends and understanding compounding increase of cases. I can apply the same methodology for tracking the peak and recovery from COVID ;-)

Quality Sells
Novacyts test is 100% accurate, can not be beaten on quality. A faster or cheaper test may come along and effect the share price on a given news day. But the day after any such news Novacyt will still sell all of their products and continue to fully utilise its caoacity.

I image they have sold 4m kits so far, global demand is likely to be in the order of 3.5m kits. Room for so many suppliers. Novacyt just happen to be the best in the world right now.

Short term trading is for computer algorithms and fools. If your quicker at maths than a computer good on you lol

I also make long term investments, in such a dynamic environment I would determine long term as 3>9 months. In normal markets my outlook is 4 > 10 years.

Am very happy with my £x00,000 profit in a month. Will likely hold all my shares until June and then will look at the global situation and consider selling up to half and possibly keep the remainder in for a yr. I won't be settling for a furher 30% gain.

Do your own research, take caution reading forum comments, validate when possible, don't get freaked out if price drops 20% one day nor too exited when it goes up. Don't get attached to the company, one day it will be time to move on $$$

Plenty of LAMP news flow on LinkedIn.

Adam Herridge (Novacyt / Primerdesign product manager) liked LinkedIn post by Dr Veronica Fowler (Basingstoke Hospital) of her being interviewed by BBC. Suggest connecting or following the two of them

Now being trialed in Gibraltar by Dr Cortes. He believes test will be in use very soon. He does say the accuracy of a negative test is lower than PCR and negative tests will need to be redone on a PCR machine. Positive tests are 100% accurate (reading between the lines). My take, these will be great tests if an urgent Postive result is needed, e.g. patent or key staff members which will reduce work load of PCR equipment. With the false negative issue LAMP doesn't seem like the golden goose.

The team involved in LAMP test all seem very confident.

"The team is about to start a clinical pilot, to check the results of the new test are consistently accurate.

If it works, within a few weeks, this innovative technique will allow the hospital to diagnose three to four times more patients than they can at the moment.

The team say that if their test works, other NHS Trusts will be given all the data they need to decide if they want to use it too"

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ugcPost-6653539936823721984-GwEq

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-6653730735045783553-z7DA

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-6653741668212199424-CcAv

It's important for diagnostic labs to have different tests for COVID-19 in order to maintain sustained testing capability, especially given the global shortage of reagents. That's the view of the GHA's consultant microbiologist, Dr Nick Cortes, who also forms part of the team at Basingstoke Hospital in Hampshire which has developed a new, faster COVID-19 test. Dr Cortes has been involved in bringing the test to Gibraltar, ahead of much of the UK: it can produce results in under 20 minutes, and will be used to supplement the testing regime on the Rock.

Theboat, provide a source if u have one. PS i know you don't as this is a fabrication. Thermo fisher haven't recived approval by Public Health England yet so how are they going to supply all the kits? lol

PS have Thermo Fishers been approved by the WHO? No I didn't think so.

I lifted this news pipeline from the board, sorry i don't catch your name.

Tried posting earlier but didn't work:

WHO approval (Tick)

Glaxo Smith Kline & AstraZeneca deal (Tick)

US sales update

Thai sales update

France sales update

UK sales update

WHO sales update

UK testing capacity increase (Tick) 30k by May

News on collaboration with Optigene (5>20 min test)

Further scaling up of manufacturing

Secure further raw materials

Release of Antibody test (long shot)

Joint Venture, License agreement or take over

VanV for me it's too early to gauge the top. Novacyt can sell whatever they make. Hopefully **** nudge accelerates ramp up.

The other variable is raw material supply, I'm starting switching my focus to the supply chain. I'll share my findings

6:23 to go, good morning :-)

Thanks again VanV and all

Thanks sausage dog, Dunnett and donnodertrader, your welcome. Twitter name's Dopeink.

Please someone leave me some £2.08 shares tomorrow! Held off buying £20k today thinking we'd go down few % tomorrow morning lol

$$$ The WHO our geneeration$$$

I'll tweet my picks now should anyone be interested. I'm no hot shot, but doing pretty, prety good. Sold 95% of portfolio in Feb, saved 40%, made 20% Ocado, - 18% zoom (sold for £1.8k loss). Long term holdings up 600% OLED, down 50% Hemogenyx, down 40% Lineage Cell Therapeutics. Only up 33% here so far, hopefully with a long way to go. My most promising investment in 6 years.

Anticipate buying normal stocks around June, assuming States cases level off, Europes cases decline and China and South Korea have beaten secon wave. Seeing some Korean senior citizens have passed having apparently caught COVID twice I'm getting feeling regions may need to get cases to zero and vaccine may not be as effective.
No idea how nonIsland and geographically blessed areas would achieve this (i know testing etc)
I'll be patient market economy has likely suffered irreparable damage to many segments, will take a while for this to feed through the system.

Looks like another 7:00 start!! Safe safe all and good luck for tomorrow

Continued..

If COVID is resolved quicker than forecast (12>18m) this would reduce Novacyts value.

This seems unlikely with second waves of cases in China and Korea. Governments are going to want to test key workers and travelers for a while and will want access to supplies should it occur.

Novacyt also has some lasting value outside of COVID as its demonstrated ability to produce high quality corona virus test kit quickly.
We are forecast to suffer from Conora virus's at a higher rate in future!! This being the 7th (china / world needs to sort out animal welfare). Novacyt will be well positioned to react to future viruses. Though their value you quickly drop a period prior to virus being defeated. When is the key question lol

It earns £13m from its other business and lost £4.7m in 2019. Company has debts of around £6m. This will be cleared very soon with their incoming profits. They have a gross margin of 85%.

Main risk:

Risk 1: Not able to procure enough materials

Acton: Global suppliers are ramping up production. Have enough to make £180m worth of kits. Signing up with larger partners may help their buying power.

Risk 2: Not able to ramp up manufacturing sufficiently

Acton: Have signed up 2 manufacturers plus look to add 3rd. Own site is running at 100%.
Should add more sites and maybe licence out tech.

Risk 3: Faster or cheaper test released

Acton: Basingstoke hospital in partnership with Optigene and Novacyt released a 5>20 min test. Novacyts current test takes 60>90 mins. This new method uses Novacyts test but on equipment usually used in veterinary. This equipment is faster than most units used for humans!!

Opportunity
The 5>20 min test could cement Novacyts place as number one supplier in the world.

. They will sell as many products as they can make

. They are adapting an Antibody norovirus for COVID. If successful they would be servicing both parts of the pie.

General
Although the share price has risen by 25 times since Jan it still has scope to rise in multiples. The share price will react to the ability of company to increase capacity, supplies and in line with global testing strategies. The share price does swing violently up and down, don't worry about that, pay attention to the RNS statements (Share holder updates). As long as these contain good news and sales increase the share price will take care of itself. Company usually provides updates every 10 days at 7:00am on a Monday or Friday. These updated will become less frequent as news cycle slows and confidence in company continues to increase.

My investment plan is to hold all my shared until May/June and sell my original investment (assuming more than a doubling) and hold the remainder for approx 8 months. This strategy can change rapidly due to dynamic nature of situation.
While no investment is safe, there are not many better places to invest money right now.

I'll share with you my stock market recovery picks

Produced this for a pal. May as well share here. PS do your own due diligence.

Here's my overview of the testing company Novacyt/Primerdesign which is a French/English listed on both stock exchanges.

They were founded in 2006 and make diagnostic testing kits.

Novacyt supply to 80 countries. Product has been approved by EU, US, UK and this evening The World Health Organisation (WHO).

Novacyt and Roche are only two companies in world approved by WHO.

They have previously made kits for SARS-1, Ebola and MERS.

There are two types of tests:

Antigen - checks if you HAVE COVID

Antibody - checks if you HAD COVID

Novacyt were quickly able to adapt their SARS-1 test to test for COVID-19 (also known as SARS-2).

Novacyt's Antigen test is 100% accurate (will attach reports)

Is quickest Antigen test at 60>90 mins

And apparently the Gold Standard.

The Antibody tests are about 50% accurate and therefore can not be used. I read they are about 3 months away.

UK has looked at 150 Antibody tests and tested 9 which failed.

Antibody tests can take up to 28 days after infection for test to work.

Antigen tests will work around a day after infection.

Both tests are needed. Antigen to immediately diagnose, trace case contacts and regularly test key workers. Plus when enough supply is available test in the community.

Working Antibody test may be available in 3 months and would be used to check if we have immunity (if science shows we can build immunity) .

Billions of tests are needed world wide. The UK could easily use 30m Antigen tests.

Novacyt test is run on PCR testing equipment that is common throughout labs world wide.

Novacyt are currently valued at £146m. Start of Jan they were valued £9.7m.

Novacyt is one of three companies supplying UK, Roche ($275b) and likely Thermo Fisher ($120b).
Not that a comparison should be made against their businesses or valuations. Just highlights what a mino they are and how well they are doing.

Last year sales were of £14.5m.

This year have sold £18.7m COVID tests and currently have capacity to sell approx £40m a month.

Hold enough materials to sell approx £180m of tests.

Could easily have sales of £300m (approx £220 booked) which would equate to around £1.5b value.

If they can double capacity (up by x20 since Feb) they could be valued at £3b.

A x5 to x20 return on investment is possible within 3>9 months.

They will likely announce they have secured more stock in next company announcement.

They have increased company capacity from 200,000 tests a month to 4m.

They have signed manufacturing agreements in America and UK. It is anticipated they will sign a further UK agreements with Glaxo Smith Kline and AstraZeneca (as mentioned by Mat Han**** hinted).

Manufacturing:
Novacyt - Southampton

Yourgene - UK Manchester (in production)

Second UK manufacturer - Discussions

Unknown US - production?

Great idea Routy :-)
I plan to donate around 20% of my profits. Im not sure when this will be, I'll hold off to compound my donation. For now im donating hundreds for 3D PPE printing.

B2HS2L In the Channel 4 interview the Basingstoke University team were very confident their test would pass. I'm assuming this confidence is based on them matching their Primerdesign LAMB results with Primerdesign PCR results.

See end of clip. Segment starts from 9 mins

https://youtu.be/PpZBke4j67k

B2HS2L, Optigene (equipment manufacturer) were planning to speak to PHE on 4th April.

In interview yesterday Michael Andreou, managing director of OptiGene said:

"The company hopes that after furnishing Public Health England with further data, its test equipment could be in use by next week"

They are not hanging around!!! :-)

I'm not sure how many units OptiGene currently has in circulation. Given they are a small company, can imagine they will need help in ramping equipment manufacture

https://www.wscountytimes.co.uk/news/people/horsham-company-develops-rapid-new-test-coronavirus-2531127

B2HS2L you've looked at the Oxford test and wrong company. Yes the Samba ii is a dud.

However Optigene's unit can run 300 tests and which was developed in Partnership with Novacyt. See below link :

http://www.optigene.co.uk/instruments/genie-ht/

From a different article:
#Primerdesign
#partnered

“We were in a fortunate position to be able to link with a local company in Chandlers Ford, PrimerDesign, who partnered with us to provide the testing kits needed and we are very delighted that we could join forces to make this a reality so quickly.”

https://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/news/regional/andover/18354750.basingstokes-super-fast-covid-test-set-rolled-across-uk/