And we should always bear in mind that the "NAV" is itself already heavily conservative because MAFL's future receivables from Ascendant are themselves not (yet) booked at full value and some unquoted positions are carried at their book or last event in accordance with normal principles! And do we have any idea what the residual free carry in LS is included at (that too may be book!)? The near future value of the latter could be substantial IMHO.
Good to see some buyer share volume and some price movement. Patience, as ever, is required whilst the further drilling is done, assessed and digested by the market. Whilst further good news can be expected in the meantime, I still expect around year end before we have something meaningful. Then there has to be a decision about developing this resource into a mine! GLA
The latest Lagoa Salgada update from MAFL and Ascendant continues to be excellent, if not stellar. But, as said here many times before, this is a much longer term play than many were expecting or would have wished for. More holes are to be drilled before year end, then hopefully a plan will be developed to turn this into a producing mine. Meaningful news by year end? Whilst those looking at MAFL must develop a clear understanding of this opportunity and its already outstanding potential, continued patience seems essential in the meantime. DYOR, GLA
Zan: You ask good questions and I share concerns, particularly as we have already seen a resource rise doubling from below 10mt to ca 20mt and undoubtedly, IMHO, on its way to over 40mt, quite apart from all the other good news like the Ascendant deal. We have also started to see some financial PR. None of that has made a jot of difference to the profile, to the sp or to sentiment. Will more of the same make a difference, if not what will it take? Wish I knew the answers but I imagine it may be around end of year before this drilling programme realises really meaningful outcomes. Patience as ever?
Nom, agreed. These little deals can all add up handsomely over time and are examples of the skills which this BoD has. Perhaps an even bigger deal to at least approach LS might appear at some future point?! We know they have been looking at various possibilities.
I, in turn, agree with you. When you start getting into valuations of that sort, as you hint at, the equation is complicated by several factors. Amongst these are: (a) the likely fact that a discounted portion of the future consideration is no doubt already in the NAV (but, as you say, this will convert to cash over time); (b) value fluctuations in the rest of the portfolio and also macro factors such as commodity prices and currency; and (c) the likely (or highly likely, IMHO) improvements in the mineral estimates to be shown at LS, which can only have a dynamic effect on the eventual LS valuation. All worth hanging on for in my opinion!
Just thought I would try to list (for those patient souls interested) what is expected in the MAFL pipeline:
:: News of Ascendants' next instalment of cash payment, increasing their stake in the Lagoa Salgada (LS) resource in Portugal [sometime over the next month or so]
:: Updates on the extensive 2019 drilling programme at LS (perhaps with news on increases in resource extent, mineral quantities and/or grades) [at intervals, may come from MAFL and/or Ascendant]
:: MAFL's own quarterly NAV and investment report updates on LS and its not insignificant other portfolio holdings, perhaps also something on the other investment opportunities MAFL is looking at [next due as at 30 June and 30 Sept]
:: MAFL's year end results [as at 30 June but release date uncertain]
Each announcement has good potential to bring positive news, especially whilst the LS resource is in its rather exciting proving stage. This is an asset-backed share with plenty of cash as well. As a reminder, LS has more than doubled indicated or inferred reserves over the last year of so, added tin as a further mineral and almost doubled zinc metal (see RNS of 25.2.19). MAFL's NAV was at an all time high as at 31March (around 13p/share). Patience as ever is required whilst that drilling programme rolls out. DYOR, GLA
Arkey, it is bad luck but, as ever in investment, timing is key. Only1neuron was a respected member of this board and tried to be helpful in setting out the fundamentals which many of us still believe to be true today. The thing we non-traders have all got wrong is the timescale and the lack of market recognition. IMHO MAFL is still a first rate stock on fundamentals but it could likely still be a year or more before the resources estimates are upgraded sufficiently for MAFL to be put firmly on radar screens and, hopefully, in a wider range of portfolios.
And, as I suppose you know, never put all your eggs in one basket.
It is once again extraordinary, but no doubt a consequence of the market not understanding what MAFL is about, that another NAV increase and further good news to be reasonably expected over the next month or so, results only in more selling and hardly any buying. Time for another PR burst from the management?
To Rasmus's point, in addition to the shares in private hands (several approx 1% shareholders here?), the various declared significant holders plus JV's 19% must account for about 1/3rd of the capital. I doubt those in the know would sell to Ascendant (ASND) or any other bidder without seeking what they regard as a fair price - power to the minority? I incline to the view that ASND will at least for the time being pursue its plans as already laid out.
I agree Zan's question, see RNS footnote which has a definition, suggesting to me that cash is in the working capital. Nonetheless, sp remains (and may continue to usually remain) at a substantial discount to NAV. The reasonable hope IMHO is that NAV should rise as Ascendant progresses with its further drilling programme and as it raises its earn-in shareholding position. No quick results here but around year end will hopefully show a much better position.
Nom, thank you for this reminder. In addition to Indium, past results have shown some quite high concentrations of Gold and Silver. Although much interest has been raised in some quarters by the presence of these 'minor' minerals, I suspect they are icing on the cake. Zinc, Copper, Lead are where the main commercial interest is likely to lie.
Spoken to Halifax and there is no restriction to trade MAFL shares through Halifax. They have already put Halifax trades through today and they ran a dummy trade whilst on the phone to them.
Halifax number ?0345 722 5525? for anyone who thinks they can’t trade and they will help them through the process.
Those of you wanting to trade throughHalifax should press H to process MAFL. Mafl’s COO has told me they have provided all the necessary forms/info to H and will chAse them. But pressure from traders may have more impact on H.
Agreed this mainly confirms what we expected. And I like the fact they are splitting out the different portfolio strategies, which helps investors understand what it is all about. With the video presentation updates too, we are starting to see some welcome "financial PR"!
Next news may be drilling/resource update then March quarter NAV?
Whilst you are right in theory, the main point is the 80% threshold (assuming that rule applies to AIM, which I imagine it does). Given we have a chairman with 19%, a bunch of declared significant holders and a number of ±1% holders here, would we sell for an undervalue? I know I'd be looking for full value if made an offer - and that value is going up as time progresses. GLA, DYOR
glacial : very good to see a sustained buying effort, no idea who it/they might be. Whilst we do chat amongst ourselves, anybody reading this and prepared to own up to being a buyer (or already a holder) is always welcome to do so! This board represents some holders of significance - MAFL just needs more of them who understand the game plan and are prepared to be patient.
Was in touch with Jamie the COO the other day and asked him why Halifax won't trade MAFL. Apparently the necessary form has been completed by MAFL a while back for those houses insisting on it, including Halifax. So I asked him to chase Halifax - but suggest that those of you wanting to trade that route also put pressure on Halifax (I use HL which works fine for me).
Gather they are also working on PR and stuff, no details yet.
Whilst an Ascendant update is due and would be good, I am really awaiting the quarterly NAV update (also due) to help towards a proper valuation of MAFL. I suspect we may still feel short of some data but at least we might hope for a meaningful consolidation of all the corporate activity over the last four months or so of last year. GLA
Marineville - just to clarify, it is not year end results which are upcoming (as MAFL extended its financial period last year to end in June each year) but rather the year end NAV. Let's hope the NAV release is not delayed too much!