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Its easy to forget the little gems in the wider portfolio which are added from time to time and then deliver some meaningful returns, even if that takes time. MAFL has three different investment strategies, of which Lagoa Salgada represents just one although it is the biggest. These strategies have been made clearer in reports over the last couple of years. Whether the market really appreciates this I somewhat doubt but IMHO it is mainly the market's failing not to appreciate MAFL, not the BoD who are doing what they say on the tin.
Brel, you know I say it as I feel it but JV's vision and energy to make something out of the LS resource should really not be doubted. Granted things are not happening as fast as many would like but this is an exploration project and those take time to progress. Consider the steady stream of good news all pointing to a world class resource and the estimates can only get better. The annual income from LS alone on going into production could exceed current mkt cap. And some good picks in the wider investment portfolio too, plus other significant opportunities being looked at. MAFL is one for the longer-term but LS has already progressed a good way along the curve.
There's been plenty of blue buying recently, some quite sizeable, so that gives me encouragement if they prove to be sticky holders.
Brel: Please allow me to present an alternative view on our chairman. As a long term holder here, I am absolutely sure that JV spends very very considerably more time on MAFL business than you suggest. Not only are there the various trading and investment portfolios within the company including the major exploration project at Lagoa Salgada (the undoubted jewel in the crown) to manage, there is also the position of Ascendant to keep a careful eye on (they are no longer the most financially stable of partners to be in bed with). Also bear in mind at the end of his quarterly report where it is said they are looking at other investment opportunities (that involves research, travel and negotiation). Also consider his prudent cost control of expenses - $25k p.a. is nothing when you look at other AIM companies! He may not be delivering news in the way we want but he is highly experienced in this field and IMHO he is delivering superb results not only on the LS project. The market will one day wake up!
As regards new buyers, with the increased liquidity being shown of late I doubt most traders will be worrying about getting trapped. I am puzzled by the sudden volume of tiny trades however. This has never been a get rich quick stock, considerable patience is required!
I have seen a few recent references to Cap Energy being written off but it worth emphasising that it has definitely not been written off., rather conservatively valued (even written down?). Like in many diversified portfolios, there can be "hard to value securities" and the directors have to take a view how to value them. More importantly, as we have discussed from time to time, MAFL's investment in LS (Redcorp) is one of those and is also subject to very conservative valuation principles. So, quite apart from looking for good drilling and other results ahead from LS, we also have the possibility/likelihood of extra value kickers from valuation haircuts being eased.
As regards the 15% owned by the Portuguese government, and I stand to be corrected here, I think Redcorp owns 85% of the LS resource (and MAFL 75% of that, subject to Ascendant's earn-in rights) with the government owning a direct 15% of the resource. That would explain the figures quoted by JV.
Best seasonal greetings to all and let's hope for that valuation uplift for the patient in 2021!
Zan: Slow in getting back on your recent post but à propos paying a 1p dividend, I think it rather more likely that the Board will at some point seek to do another big deal and so in time will be wanting to build up a war chest and even issue more shares. That might attract market attention and support in a rather different way? We know other opportunities have been looked at every so often and it perhaps just a question of the right fish coming along?
In the short term, apart from periodic LS announcements, there is a Sep Qtr NAV to look forward to! Patience all.
I do sympathise, and empathise, with those disappointed at the lack of traction in t his share. I too have been here a matter of years but I feel one has to recognise that this is a long game (and longer than many expected), it is going in absolutely the right direction (particularly with a miner now running the proving phases), it is producing fabulous results at LS and it has other smaller gems in its wider portfolio. "Its time will come" (IMHO). We cannot forget the impact of covid on global demand and investor sentiment but I suspect MAFL has been hardly impacted and would have had the same lacklustre market reactions in ordinary times. Bon courage and extreme patience, as ever. GLA.
A propos the lower value placed on LS by MAFL in its valuations, I suspect one needs to understand the different positions of Ascendant (a buyer, TSX rules and Canadian) and MAFL (a partial seller of a minority stake for a largely deferred consideration - which may or may not be paid (!), AIM rules and perhaps British accounting standards). Ascendant may also be including in its value the full cost of its LS mining-related activity (several million now?) whereas MAFL no doubt has to look at that too differently. I am not an expert on those considerations but, MAFL's valuation conservatism apart (which seems well-advised in the light of recent outcomes?), one might see an explanation for wide divergencies between the two?
Avizandum:
As nomlumgu says, the information is in previous RNSs. I have also checked your comment about your perception of the absence of "monthlies" and I reiterate there are no monthlies. If you look back over say the last 18 months, there has been a lot of Redcorp activity (results of drilling and analysis, PEA etc) and so MAFL has made periodic news updates of this in the form of RNSs. I believe the only specific requirement on MAFL, as an investment company, is to issue a quarterly NAV but bear in mind that the quarter to 30 June 2020 is its year end quarter and it would not unusual for that to be delayed due to the need for audit etc.
Please also consider the probable requirement on MAFL to announce any failure by Ascendant to make its due payments, if that was material to MAFL. Absent such failure, no Ascendant update would be due from MAFL. I do not remember all the terms of the earn-in agreement with Ascendant but one might expect to find that its defaulting involves some penalties (=advantages) to MAFL; if so, the two would surely be working together to try and sort things out. These things take time, especially in current exceptional circumstances and the holiday season. I am afraid this is one for the patient only.
There is not cash in the bank of $5m and the core holdings are all in a long-term portfolio, not a short-term trading one. As for the LS strategic holding, that is definitely long-term and we know JV has been looking at other such strategic opportunities. Like you grow cauliflowers, I grow courgettes and we both expect those to deliver short-term and successful results. But I also grow trees. Turning an out-of-favour mineral resource bought for a few hundred thousand into a multi-million world class mine takes time and there is no way of cutting corners - except to trade it. And zinc has been in the doldrums for a while. Nonetheless, you are not entirely wrong about paucity of information and I will write to JV to find out what is happening.
Avizandum: I fully share your frustration but for those of us who see the longer game here, Patience (and perhaps Extreme Patience) are the the watchwords. There has never been a "Monthly" although ad hocs have arrived. The Quarterly's arrival is never to a schedule but it does come. Agree too that an Ascendant update from MAFL's perspective appears overdue. This all seems rather haphazard but the directors are not full time and the very low admin costs (unusual for an AIM company) reflect the fact that there are no offices or admin support. This investment is about the experience and quality of JV and the diversified portfolio plus Lagoa Salgada opportunity which he has created. I would not seek to persuade anyone to stay invested but IMHO the LS opportunity in particular is extremely attractive longer-term and merits full understanding and patience. DYOR, GLA.
Sher-lock, I agree wholeheartedly. We have seen here over time unduly high expectations of a quick result on the mining side and of that being reflected in the sp. But any mining project of this sort takes years and LS is still at its proving stage. It has explored only a small portion of the whole site (with first class results and much more planned. We'll see if that is delayed due to Ascendant's position and we need some clarity on that. I might more optimistically think of 5 years to production given we are in Portugal but another scenario could be that MAFL trades its residual LS interest and the implicit massive royalties from production should another good deal come along.
You may be right that there are sometimes "bad days" but I have done it several to times with MAFL (never a really liquid at the best of times) through HL and never a problem. It has to be a telephone deal, not an online deal, so costs a little more in dealing charges.
I just wondered if those two 150k trades might be a Bed & Isa switch, typically done at around the bid price? One might think that size of trade would leave mms long of the stock but the steady modest buying recently and relative firmness of the price may tell a different story.
Zan and nwgb: thanks for your comments and I agree this limited PR is a good step in the right direction. To Zan's comment about perhaps trying a NAV-related placing, I do not know if you have been around long enough to recall that we have have had at least of those (I think at around 14/15 p perhaps 3 years ago) and whilst it sparked short term attention, the price soon fell back just as we see it doing after good news these last many RNSs. I am not an expert on tactics here but I suspect that we need action on several fronts, more PR and getting the good news out there in optimal form obviously continuing to be primary ones. MAFL remains a medium term play given the proving work still being done - but most of us LTHs agree the potential upside is enormous. Hang in there - and let JV have your best views as I suspect he gets precious little shareholder feedback.
Nom: I have never used a model but if yours says sell at over 14p, perhaps it does not have all the right data or it is duff? Clearly there are liquidity issues as well as AIM and macro factors at play but, on fundamentals, the upcoming cash alone takes one well above 14p. Couple that with the residual value of the LS asset to MAFL not yet, IMHO, being really reflected materially in the NAV. Take, for instance, the enormous disparity between the value at which ASCN carry their modest 25% in LS and what MAFL's total NAV is! I cannot profess to value this investment with any certainty but, assuming ASCN go ahead and this turns into a producing mine, perhaps think of the dividend or royalty stream coming through annually to MAFL. That is a little way off, I fully accept, but I am looking at long-term value. Next steps fro MAFL: NAV, annual accounts, more drill results, PEA - around end of year should be a better time to take stock. GLA