The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Hardy:
Whilst an Ascendant update is due and would be good, I am really awaiting the quarterly NAV update (also due) to help towards a proper valuation of MAFL. I suspect we may still feel short of some data but at least we might hope for a meaningful consolidation of all the corporate activity over the last four months or so of last year. GLA
Marineville - just to clarify, it is not year end results which are upcoming (as MAFL extended its financial period last year to end in June each year) but rather the year end NAV. Let's hope the NAV release is not delayed too much!
Happy Christmas one and all. Undoubtedly good, if not stellar, news in the pipeline so that might make a welcome belated present to us all. I think Santa knows we (or most of us) have been good boys and girls.
Marineville: I share your frustration and befuddlement! Whilst I am in absolutely no doubt (IMHO!) about the outstanding opportunity here, there are several facts which seem to work constantly against any upward movement. As you know, these include the absence of any PR/investor relations, MAFL not being on the radar screens of many, the trading nature of the stock (the lot of many an AIM stock), the relative complexity of the past structure and a limited information flow. Superb drill results, rising NAV, a staged multi-million sale of 80% of an asset in at £0, CEO buying 2% more, all seem to account for very little or even nothing. I'm not an expert on what it takes to get out of this rut - but it must require something more. Apart from investor relations, perhaps some institutional interest, a dividend or shareholder payout when more Ascendant funds are received...? GLA, DYOR
Very pleased to see JV - and even Wizard! - putting money where the mouth is. Much of the news is already there, although undoubtedly more good news to come. Perhaps more a question of how it may play out and how the jewels of MAFL might gain wider appreciation. I believe MAFL has both a relatively short game and a much longer game, the long one being the really rewarding one, for those with stamina and patience! Just imagine what a 20% interest in this world class mineral resource might produce in annual dividend once the mine is in production!
GLA
Quindell:
If it is ownership which worries you, do you think a company like Ascendant would have proceeded without having conducted extensive due diligence? That would be unthinkable.
I do not know how long you have been following MAFL but it has had its capital at risk on the LS venture for over 3 years - I doubt that THC had much real skin in the game as it certainly had tiny resources at the outset.
DYOR
Quindell:
There have been many posts about THC but you may have missed my recent response to you. Here it is again:
"True, we don't know for sure but THC had tiny assets so MAFL probably financed and advised most of the LS deal (based upon MAFL's stated objectives and RNSs). Drilling 10 holes is not cheap. The price may have reflected the unwinding of all that financing and advice. Just my theory but I am pleased with the deal announced, removing some of the complication and uncertainty."
It also occurs to me that THC's owners may have taken a dividend etc out before sale? I do not think that ownership can be in any doubt, given the announcement made. But it is not up to us to answer this, you may want to address the management.
DYOR, GLA
Quin: There have been a few posts here on the THC deal. True, we don't know for sure but THC had tiny assets so MAFL probably financed and advised most of the LS deal (based upon MAFL's stated objectives and RNSs). Drilling 10 holes is not cheap. The price may have reflected the unwinding of all that financing and advice. Just my theory but I am pleased with the deal announced, removing some of the complication and uncertainty. Quad.
DYOR, GLA
marine, agreed. Actually, to measure expectations, next NAV more likely about 3 months from now (published end Jan). The timing is rather disappointing but one can hope for some good news from Ascendant, which could exceed the outcome of THC/MAFL's 10 holes. If so, not only would this add enormous further potential value to LS but I think the idea is that it would enable Ascendant to develop a proper exploitation plan. Watch this space, fingers crossed, GLA
u69: it is pretty standard accounting practice, unless you are an open ended investment fund, to carry investments at book cost, adjusting for any significant events such as a subsequent capital raise. They are following the rules, not just being conservative. Quoteds will use market value at valuation date. Unfortunately the THC deal was struck just after the quarter valuation date so we have to wait another quarter. At least we now have a timetable for a better valuation. But we should be looking for more Ascendant updates in the meantime. Patience as ever!
Glacial, am sure you will find that THC bought Redcorp, with partner MAFL helping organise and finance the deal, straight off the former owner of Redcorp. This was ca 2015 from memory. But you have a much longer history record if you are ex Athol!. You'll see this come right IMO, JV is in a different league from the old team.
I agree with 6z, MAFL has been the power behind the throne and if you look its corporate objectives include mining advisory and finance. They have said they have been doing both in relation to LS and the financing of at least 10 drill holes and geo work must have cost quite a bit. So that could easily explain the bottom line price paid for THC.
6z (and All):
Apart from yet more good news (and it should keep coming IMHO!), what I also find interesting are the footnotes to the second table in the RNS, explaining the LS/Redcorp ownership position. This does leave still open the question of whether Ascendant is buying with or without the benefit of the extra 15% but no doubt all will become clear. Footnotes to table say:
"* Subject to Final Approval by Portuguese Secretary of State of EDM's sale of 15% of Lagoa Salgada to Redcorp;" AND
"**Current Redcorp Ownership: TH Crestgate 75%, Ascendant 25%"
6z - well done on digging this confirmation out, it is unambiguous but does slightly complicate the numbers! Such complication works, of course, to MAFL's advantage although simplicity would be a real advantage for a straightforward PR message and investor understanding.
6z and others:
And there I was thinking this was finally getting uncomplicated! Actually, I think it is simpler - Redcorp owns 100% of LS and Ascendant have bought from THC 25% of R, with an earn-in to get ultimately to 80%. In buying THC, it must be the residual interest in R (today 75%) which MAFL is left owning? I would hope that the 15% former government stake all completed long ago, although I do somewhere recall an 85% number being mentioned. Either way, I think Ascendant is expecting to get to 80% of R.
Anyone think different?
u69 - I have had a look at the Feb 18 (NAV as at 31.12.17) and Jul 18 (NAV as at 30.6.18) announcements but neither that I can see referred to moving to quarterly NAVs. For a small company keen to keep costs down, I could see quarterly would be a hassle but equally an ongoing PR effort as we seek would also be a hassle. I was only thinking of asking for a one-off now due to the past obscurity and the difficulty of unravelling it all.
Well done to LTHs here and to the new director for their share buys - showing confidence is helpful to the PR story. Here's hoping there is plenty more. I might ask if an exceptional October NAV release is possible as the December NAV might not be out until Feb or March - which would be far far too long given all the obscuring effect of the THC involvement.
Great news! MAFL may not have always been prompt with the news but, when it comes, it has rarely failed to be good news and even surprise on the upside. This latest is no exception. I do not think we have ever known the financing and advisory arrangements between MAFL and THC but this deal must surely confirm views expressed here that MAFL was financing the previous drilling programme and has really been the power behind the throne all along.
Well done JV, onwards and hopefully upwards! My only remaining observation is that ongoing PR would be helpful if not essential to get and keep the story out there. GLA