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My top up earlier today was at the then mid price so shows as an "unknown". My top up last week (averaging down!) showed as a sale. Those indicators may give the wrong impression to some but what matters more to me is the direction of travel - this should be heading north soon IMHO.
As many comment, this is a great opportunity if you believe in this company's very positive fundamentals.
Florence: I wholeheartedly agree with you. Also bear in mind (but I may be wrong on some detail) that were Ascendant to fail, MAFL cancels the share earn-in for A and A forfeits (cannot claim back) the $9m or whatever it has spent on drilling and on moving this forward. That capex would be a big extra boost to Redcorp and thus MAFL. Clearly that contingency would not be in the NAV as MAFL hopes Ascendant will proceed and succeed.
Bank: You are right that we should be getting some more frequent reports because of the expected level of LS activity. Whether that will make any real difference to the sp before it all comes together later this year, I do not know but I feel somewhat doubtful given past precedent.
I know there have been some justified concerns about Ascendant but, so far, they have done what is needed and not dragged their feet.
Zan: You and me both long-termers. Good overview of yours. I would just add that with the excellent drilling news out and more to come, the Portuguese government's announcement on the importance of LS, the DFS by year end and hopefully clarity about the government's 15%, the end of this year ought to mark "the end of the beginning", i.e re-rating and on more radar screens. It will always struggle whilst it is a mini micro-cap and I find it hard to believe we private investors alone can change that...
GLA
Sher-Lock, I suspect that the $3.5m is included at a discount in the NAV due to the conservative valuation policies MAFL uses. While Ascendant has been meeting its obligations, it has not got a lot of substance behind it so there may be some question whether it can deliver all it has to by Dec 2022. But it is certainly now even more incentivised to do so!
Quite separately, I suspect that the MAFL's NAV includes nothing for the multi-$m drilling and exploration budget which Ascendant has been and is sinking into Redcorp itself. I am not sure I have seen MAFL's NAV figure for the LS element.
Great result, be patient, GLA
If some are seeking to blame JV for the share price, it is (as often mentioned here) the market and not JV who controls the share price. MAFL has produced consistently good news, we perhaps see a spike on or a muted reception to such news but then the price always falls back. We are in one of those falling back phases now, a pattern well established. Actually the offer price has held within a relatively narrow rang over recent months.
I am sure I do not need to remind that MAFL is involved in a long-game exploration investment and it is moving forward on its plans to validate the enormous potential of LS as well as its other investments. Rome was not built in a day and I can only urge patience, patience and patience for those following (IMHO) the massive potential of this stock.
Puzzling RNS because, as I recall, one is only obliged to notify significant holdings if one goes through (up or down) 3% or any greater whole percentage holding threshold. Not aware those thresholds have changed. So may simply be an unnecessary announcement?
It is my recollection that the Indium excitement was blown out of all proportion at the time - LS is and has always been primarily a Zn/Pb/Cu play with a whole lots of other good things thrown in. All typical volcanic pyrites thrown up from Earth's core. There has been little discussion since then about any of the minor minerals and elements of which there are plenty present (good gradings of gold and tin, to mention but two). Nor further discussion of the fact that there are few contaminants (such as arsenic) present in the ores which will enable much greater levels of recovery when the ore is processed. But I imagine these matters may be addressed somewhere in the detailed reports which have been issued. Everything points to a
I comment not out of expectation that such discussions should have taken place. Rather to repeat the points that (a) the various RNS reports issued to date have been good to excellent and (b) the necessary groundwork of proving the LS resource to acceptable mineralogical standards is in progress (they are still drilling more holes!) and that all takes time.
Having been here for a long time, I am afraid I see no substitutes for understanding the potential and dynamics as well as having patience.
Whilst one can understand the frustration which regularly surfaces, I do feel that the fly-trap analogy is wrong in several respects. Unlike a fly, most everyone here knew what they were getting into. This has always been a low profile, long term punt. MAFL is primarily an investment company with its major, virtually unpriced asset being an exploration asset which by definition takes time to go through its necessary proving stages and remains hard to value. With an experienced mining company (Ascendant) involved, it is doing all the right things and moving forward but time must be allowed to define the resource and get the definitive news out. I am tempted to mix metaphors by saying if you can't stand the inevitable slow pace , you might perhaps wish to get out of the kitchen.
It is really the market which makes a stock and the market is really not that interested in MAFL yet. Indeed one might consider that the market has consistently treated MAFL unfairly considering its excellent RNSs. MAFL has no full time staff and I am unconvinced that issuing more RNSs, shares or whatever would necessarily change very much. It will remain tightly held. However, for a value investor, IMHO there is (just) sufficient information here for this to be considered a Hold and tucked away for when the really big news comes and the market wakes up. Those lucky or wise squirrels will then be sitting smugly, I feel sure; they would have to pay a lot more to get in then.
Just expressing an alternative POV!!
I don't know if it is buried in the detail of this announcement somewhere but a good while ago there was a statement with earlier drill results that the level of "contaminants" (my word) in the core samples was usually low. As I recall, the higher the levels of arsenic and other contaminants the lower the possible recovery rates of the underlying metals/minerals, thus lower returns. I would expect those better recovery rates to be reflected in the detailed calculations. This factor is yet another positive for the LS resource.
Really great news here, even though good news expected. I sense there must be yet more reserves below the depth to which they have drilled plus almost certainly elsewhere in the sectors not yet drilled, given the mineral riches well proven across the Iberian Pyrites formation.
TheThinker: The potential (or perhaps I should say massive potential) has been covered here extensively over a long period - including some good recent posts. DYOR?
The when - no one knows for sure and at this stage one cannot say more than there will be no single defining event, since MAFL is a resources investment company with several different strategies. The securities portfolios have been delivering some excellent results on both listed and unquoted portions, but those will always be of secondary importance.
The real jewel in the crown is Redcorp/LS which with Ascendant's help is well advanced upon all the necessary steps in proving its worth. A revised PEA is due before year end - that's one more event which might help the market take notice. But It will probably take more than that.
However, I suspect JV's priority is to encourage completion of the proving processes in the shortest possible time but my personal time horizon for this to really filter through to the market is still 12-18 months. You will not find institutions investing in a micro-cap like MAFL so its always going to be volatile when AIM investors are your shareholder base. There is little JV can do about that now - or the spread! Hence, as often urged here, Patience is the watchword.
Florence, I fully agree with your summary. You have expressed that very succinctly and (to me, as a long-term supporter of MAFL) very convincingly. To my mind, realising the enormous potential is just a question of "when", not "whether".
Sher-Lock, thanks for your posts and I wholeheartedly agree with you about the opportunity here. LS is located in the same geological formation as several successful producing mines and MAFL's proving process so far has shown excellent if not world class grades for a wide variety of minerals, including Zn, Pb, Cu, Au, Ag. For instance, Tin was not assayed earlier on in the Central zone but reassaying those cores later showed good quality results there too. Now the expanded proving process is producing good results from the South zone too.
The quality of the grades and breadth of minerals throughout has to make this a most exciting proposition and, quite properly, Ascendant and MAFL are ensuring that the right processes are being followed to realise its full potential.
This is not a get-rich-quick opportunity which is why patience is correctly urged on all investors.
Brel, having been here a long time like you, I wholeheartedly agree with your observations. MAFL is for those with a longer term view, not get rich quick. But I do believe they are actively looking for another LS-type deal for the strategic portfolio but those opportunities do not grow on trees, are not easy to pull off (certainly with travel restrictions) and do not return a quick profit.
Silvernight:
It is a good idea to help those interested in MAFL to list what its assets are; however, the receipt of future monies is uncertain so it is normal when calculating NAV to apply a discount to those monies.
I've not checked all your figures but you should correct one number - the June 2022 $1.0m and Dec 2022 $2.5m (about £2.5m, not your £1.75m) and you miss out one important number, i.e the $9m Ascendant are investing in Redcorp (I guess they might be halfway through that by now?) - for details see the RNS of 22 June.
Last but not least, whether MAFL ends up owning a residual 20% or 5% depends upon what happens to the Government 15% stake in LS (not Redcorp) which is still outstanding but due to be clarified.
It's not an entirely straightforward situation and it is probably premature to try to put future values on MAFL's reducing interests. But the upcoming PEA, further positive exploration results and the direction of travel for commodity prices can all be expected to be elements confirming the attractiveness of the LS asset within MAFL as a whole.
Jollifant - welcome back, I remember you from the past! Yes, only a little of major significance has changed since then - even better prospects from the Lagoa Salgada resource, further excellent drill results covering a wider area, involvement of Ascendant to manage that process and a PEA issued; also some excellent contributions from the wider investment portfolio. Unchanged elements - still an illiquid stock, sideways share price movements, no wide investor appreciation. Extreme patience required from investors as ever.
Good luck to you and to all returning and new investors.
SSB:
It would indeed be nice to have an update but my feeling is that MAFL does not work to any strict timetables on its announcements (except mandatory ones) and it has tended to be "minimalist". It is very cost conscious as we see with its low annual expenditure. I believe that each RNS issued incurs fees (have I heard it can be about £2000?) so that might be felt to be a constraint in the expense context. In the context of keeping the market and shareholders informed, however, it should of course be an irrelevance.
SuperSonic: Your user name sounds like you are a momentum person! Unfortunately MAFL shares have shown little sustainable momentum over the last several years - at best a rush up and then a steady retrenchment. You probably know that MAFL's major asset (LS) is still in exploration mode so it inevitably takes time to gather the facts, develop the story and find those who appreciate it. That should not dilute the potential for exciting, high quality asset which LS represents nor impact the other two investment strategies which MAFL has. However, despite all the excellent data coming out and now supported by the macro case for its commodities, in the meantime the only watchword for shareholders remains "patience". GLA
Stretchum, in addition to only 35m shares in issue, the free float is also limited after you take the declared significant holders into account plus a probable good number of 1%+ holders, some of whom have been represented on this chat. We have seen these moves before - the question is whether a meaningful rise can be sustained?