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6z - Your views make sense but, normally speaking and to best of my knowledge, MAFL's own unlisted portfolio will usually be carried at book unless there is an "event" in the security they actually hold. LS is two stages removed from MAFL, so that's my uncertainty over anything other than a directors' valuation allowing uplift. Do you recall what happened to valuations following the Spanish deal?
As you know, THC is private and a relatively tiny minnow, undoubtedly no NAVs etc produced there. As speculated here over a long time, why not remove confusion by doing a deal with THC?
6z, unsure about a THC uplift, that's my worry if the THC position is not clarified or a dividend etc is paid. The Ascendant LS transaction does not necessarily change the THC book value in MAFL's books as there has not been a THC share transaction (yet). One might check for precedent the Spanish deal where, as far as I am aware (but not closely investigated), MAFL may not have changed its THC valuation on that occasion although it showed a very nice profit. However, whilst book cost is often the default, I imagine the directors may have some discretions to make a different directors' valuation.
Ma5k, trade outside normal size so has not affected sp (yet!). Still, not helpful to see trades of that size and it may be a little while before the next scheduled news delivery. I am hoping for THC-related news but MAFL usually finds something to surprise us with.
I agree 6z. Also, if the THC clarification/unwinding works out sensibly, MAFL should also have some cash coming from both the Spanish assets sale and the LS deal, now and in the future. Else why all the who-ha over LS? It feels like they have plenty of cash - hey, even return some to investors (that might make the market look up?!)?
But a big follow-on deal to LS, which we understand MAFL is looking for, might require more cash than they have. So nothing to be ruled out.
A first rate RNS and a fall in the share price is nothing new for long-time followers of MAFL. For it to be trading around or below NAV is not new either.
So what is happening? Well, the market has yet to wake up to the superb fundamentals of this stock, that is for sure. A sale in stages of its partner THC's stake in Lagoa Salgada, Portugal's 3rd largest Zn/Cu/Pb resource in the well-known Iberian Pyrites area, has recently been announced. This is excellent and long-awaited news. But there is also a question about whether MAFL's share in the LS project might increase in view of its finance and advisory role in the LS project - further news there would be an added bonus.
MAFL also has a significant investment portfolio with some interesting positions and, given its objectives, no doubt other LS-type deals ahead. Overall, MAFL is currently ultra low cap, low profile and off most people's radar. Some PR and financial journalist coverage would not go amiss to raise profile. In the meantime, one can only encourage patience. DYOR, IMHO, GLA
Indeed, the NAV announcement cycle is very roughly a month after each quarter end. I am not sure we are waiting for much more to be announced on LS, for me its more about waiting for clarification of the THC position after the big announcement. IMHO, the "complication" of that structure is a significant barrier preventing investors understanding how and when LS's undoubted value may flow through to MAFL, as it is probably just carried at the book cost of the THC shares owned by MAFL and the financing loans. Its valuation policies would, quite properly, be to carry unquoted investments at book until there is an event in THC shares meriting revaluation.
I quite agree, as has been echoed her many times, that PR and more regular news flow are essential if this is going to attract the attention and support it deserves. Patience as ever (hopefully not wearing too thin!).
GLA, DYOR
u69: As you suggest, the whole THC arrangement would benefit from clarification. Have you not been a frequent proponent of a larger equity stake being the outcome?. I have yet to check this out in the recent report, is anything there?
I do not feel the 54 month timetable is particularly the issue (that process should serve to greatly increase the indicated/inferred values), is it not more confusion due to the THC structure and perhaps a relatively complex deal generally. Better communication would also help. Whatever the reason, it is extraordinary that MAFL is trading at such a discount.
If you take today's market cap at £2.33m, that is materially below the 30 June audited NAV of £2.6m. But that's not the real story. I believe audited NAV hardly reflects MAFL's share of LS at all, which will be carried at book - anyone disagree? If so, one has to add, IMHO, £4m or more as the absolute minimum for MAFL's share in LS. That number assumes full conversion, no NPV adjustment, something for the retained carry; but it excludes the potential uplift in the as as yet unexplored remainder of the 13,000ha LS site and the exploration funding being put in by the purchaser etc etc. We also await clarification of the THC arrangements. Of course, there are other portfolio stories like CAP Energy too.
If my very rough minimum numbers are of the right order, on that basis MAFL is now be trading well below half (probably much less) of adjusted NAV. What will it take for the necessary wake-up call?! Cannot believe i am still saying "patience"!
DYOR, GLA
It is all as clear as mud at the moment! We have THC, MAFL and a suspected potential purchaser of LS, each with positions or perspectives. At least we may reasonably hope that all will become clear by end July, perhaps before. The attractive fundamentals for LS and thus MAFL have not changed and remain as strong as ever. Patience as ever?
... 6z included. And Dave, thanks for the addition of good humour - let us know if you find your bargain footballer (though interviewing over the next few weeks might be hard to arrange, what with the big Russian distraction!).
ma5k, one could imagine various options, especially given JV's experience in deal making. For instance, they could buy out THC; they could demerge LS to each of them so a purchaser buys out both THC and MAFL; LS or THC could pay a large dividend on sale. Given different legal and tax implications, this may explain some of the delays? If there is a continuing LS interest such as royalty, structure chosen may depend upon who is to get the benefit of that. Some here suggest MAFL is the effective senior partner in all this anyway, clarification awaited! GLA
Good point U69. What may be forgotten here is that they have invested a substantial amount in proving up what is Portugal's 3rd largest Zn/Pb/Cu resource. Now looking to sell it but it takes time to do a good deal. Lack of news is disappointing but no news is not necessarily bad news. And there has to be demand for zinc and the other commodities at LS, some in world class grades. Worth hanging on if you can imho? DYOR, GLA
U69, given the large extent of unexplored territory at LS (13ha), does it not seem highly likely that some form of royalty or other continuing interest will be sought to capitalise on the hidden, unproven extra resources? As to the crazy repeated view expressed elsewhere that LS is only worth perhaps $750k, one does not invest in drilling 10 holes (which must have cost upwards of $2m) and come up with Portugal's three largest Zn/Pb/Cu resource with some world class grades just to get back such a paltry sum. One can only speculate on realisable value and it can take time to sew-up a deal of the sort envisaged but it surely cannot be long before some meaningful news is released. But this low sp reflects absolutely nothing for LS. Patience as ever required. GLA, DYOR
Very nice top up, PJ. Well done, shame it does not show as a buy. System is crazy that way. The delay in news would test the patience of saints but deals often take longer to tie up than one might hope for and it's better to get it right than hurry. But hard to see any downside here imho.
6z: You are absolutely right to question buying on those technicals. I imagine that most here are looking at this as a value investment. Most recent MAFL published NAV �2.6m, market cap is �2.9m. So LS and other unquoteds stand in at virtually nothing. One can only speculate on clarification of MAFL's interest in LS and sale timing and price but I guess the partners must have spent $2m+ on drilling and assaying 10 holes and the results have been pretty spectacular, so surely of interest to a range of buyers? You don't spend that and get such results without going somewhere meaningful IMHO. If MAFL's share in LS were to net, say, only �3m, it would double NAV and so on. Patience required as ever! GLA, DYOR
Here here, 6z. Recent selling by two major holders (who could be selling for a number of reasons but who still look like being holders) might explain some of the larger recent trades and pressure on the price. Patience by other holders will be rewarding, IMHO! Sale news cannot be long, surely.
Fixxx: Well done for biting the bullet! The comment about charts was made purely in the context of recent postings, such as those suggesting the next support level at 5.5p and a bunch of �sell� recommendations and �poor� ratings. Of course charts and ratings can be useful, even essential, in many other contexts but the point being made is that with important news due shortly on at least two fronts, the views being expressed seemed to make no allowance for the excellent value-based fundamentals of MAFL and what many supporters here see as a long overdue re-rating. GLA, DYOR