Member Info for pyrotech

I love those numbers
However i think we need remember that at this time 202tcf is just a company estimate.

Two meetings back i asked Zaza is that a number they still believe and he said yes.
CPR is the number that matters.
We know that the majors are doing new estimates. This would be as good as a CPR
We know its increased and i suspect in oil and gas.
So personally i am expecting a GAS estimate of 20 - 50 TCF as Super major estimate.
So i think we need to use a number 10 -20% of the gas estimate you used.

There is of course the chance that we do have 202tcf but i think if true it will take significantly longer to prove up.

I fo hope that you are right and i am being too conservative, but trying to keep our feet firmly on the ground here.
The other known, unknown is the recovery rate. I think that its much improved on what was originally believed.

The numbers you gave certainly excite me

Mr Hope has been acting not in the best interest of the company.
That we know.

Previously old hope tried to orchestrate a hostile takeover and Outrider had shares.
Now one way he could be acting against the company, is to sell shares in a manner to keep price low.

This short selling an d manipulation of SP was what YA was doing that Zaza was not happy about.

So was Hope trying to play the sp with sells?
Was he acting to keep price down to assist in some kind of takeover?

The one thing that would confuse this, would be..... if Hope (Outrider ) had many million shares - why sell if company was about to increase hugely in value. They could make a mint by holding.

So the question should be, are they sells?
We have all seen transfers into ISA that show as sells when in fact they are sells and buys in effect, as they moved as good rates from account too Isa account.
So unless its the service providers or similar with a need to sell for some reason, then it makes no sense that a holder who must have had in excess of 300m shares to sell, especially with such potential news around the corner.
A 33% rise would be another £15k for same amount of shares

I have sneaky feeling that its a transfer.
Many think the video and Exxon news is related
I think the Exxon news, and end of selling is related too the video
I hope today that the 10m end of day was to clear the final shares.

Companies do buy shares prior to a take over, if they own 10% of a company, its 10% less they have to pay to someone else, They brought that 10% cheaper.

For instance, and just using these numbers for ease of accounting
Company A has 14b shares at 1p
Company B buys 4B at 1p Costing £40m
They then do take over at £1 a share
It cost them £100B for the 10b shares
It actually cost them £100,000,040,000
It would have cost them £140,000,000,000

They now have 4b shares also worth £10B too so can sell them
Now the total savings on that is £40b or just short of that (40m less)

Those figures are totally random and not in any way linked to value of FRR .
They just indicate why a company looking to buy out would benefit by purchasing a percentage of a stock they want to purchase.
It saves them money and makes them money.

Late night musing

perish the thought...
maybe Exxon have evaluated block 12 and decided it's huge.
so whilst that's easy for them to acquire. it's feasible that data suggests that the hydrocarbons expand across a vast area. so Exxon decide to secure exploration far west of our block to control the whole likely area.
This could be huge

Again I ask. why are Exxon suddenly interested in Georgia. I would suggest something has highlighted the area to them.

companies like Exxon do not just stick a pin in a map and say let's take a look there.
Something regional has prompted them to look at West Georgia and it's probably one of two things.
either
They are taking block 12 and like the geology so much they are securing a vast area too
or
They know what for data shows but two other super majors are out bidding them.
I am going for first one

you do not fight over an empty box

Natural gas
The composition of natural gas is 95% methane, almost 4% ethane and nitrogen, and 1% carbon dioxide and propane. It is produced by the natural transformation of organic materials over millions of years.
Methane: the simplest hydrocarbon
Methane gas belongs to the hydrocarbon family. A hydrocarbon is an organic composition that contains only carbon and hydrogen atoms. With just one carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms, methane (CH4) is the simplest hydrocarbon.
Some other hydrocarbons are: propane (C3H8), ethane (C2H6) and butane (C4H10).

Now , quite clearly Zaza stated at the meeting that UD2 told us alot.
He mentioned this in both the last meetings but in this one he indicated that the xmas present was delivered.

The UD2 drill was a failure to many, as the well did not produce, but Zaza said the data it provided was exceptional

I think what bugsy-b found there, ties neatly in with what Zaza has been saying.

Many posters here have over the years stated that Shah Deniz does not stop at a Countries border and suggested this is all one huge complex

ON LAND TOO

You don't fight over an empty box

I agree Mole

It would have to be a large II holding or to do with YA
I believe YA short sold shares knowing they could influence the price

I do not think these 15m shares are any worry to us, i think its clearing some books.

Ya Games have finished but the overhang still needs clearing.

Although if we are honest , its a bit of a mystery and shall we call it a unknown.

I do have a question for you, for off here so any chance you can send a email to my throwaway - pyrotech999@hotmail.co.uk
If you have 5 mins

1onic
The shorters shares are borrowed so it could be argued that the short shares could appear as either buys or sells.

Its , as i stated an unknown about who or what that seller, is.
Are they sells? We had all those cancelled sells earlier in the year.

Those 15m sells could even be transfers.
My money is on shorts closing but its just a hunch

Probably they are shorts closing

What i believe happens - is - The short has a period of time before its closed.
Chances are that the shorts are closing now as per a timeline previously set by lender of the shares.

It does not matter to that lender if the shares are making a profit or loss to the borrower of the shares being shorted.

The other option with shorts - is that the lender has ordered the shares back and has expressed a timeline for the shares to be returned . - So if a borrower shorted 300m shares, the lender could ask for them all back, or possibly in increments of 20 x 15m to close the short but over a period of time to assist the seller.

So the 15m seller may indeed by a very large short being closed.

If we go back a few weeks, brokers recommended the closure of short positions on FRR

That in its self seems a huge positive, we need to remember that they can order closure of shorts due to difficulty paying back due to losses. Although i never really trust a broker and so i am sure shorters will point in that direction too.

I thin we can call the 15m seller a KNOWN, UNKNOWN

Thats exactly right, Many Aim companies have blind spots
Thats exactly why this or any other is aim share is never a dead cert

the problem with a blind spot is you do not see it until its too late.
if you could see it, then its no longer a blind spot

we could say that back in 2014/15 when the sp rose at 8am too over 1.4p that we (or many of us) did not see the blind spot.
That was of course the selling by YA who quickly appeared with their stock taking the price quickly back down to 0.7p

YA is of course no longer a blind spot as we pretty much know the deal there.

Another blind spot was when it was unknown by us that Outrider were using trade secrets to initiate a hostile takeover.

The arbitration by Georgian Govt, was to all intense proposes a blind spot as we never saw it coming.

What makes me confident is i know how much Zaza has in this, so he has to protect his investment and in doing so ours too.

To quote a famous USA politician a few years back (Rumsfeld)

There are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know.

The Unknown Unknowns are the blindspots and these are the killer blows.

Now personally i think its a huge positive that Zaza is a Georgian national running a USA company in Georgia, it makes the deal with Georgians sweeter , a little homegrown success if you like.

Zaza has huge holding
he is open and communicates well with share holders

Any long term holder will tell you how much communication has improved in last 2 years.

My thoughts are that we will see a price of between £0.50 AND £1.90 a share
Before that we will see a Consolidation of 10/1

So in todays money thats 5P too 19p

Some will say thats too high and others will say way to low

Personally i do not see FRR getting full value or anywhere near for the gas

We will i hope sell FRR Georgia but retain some royalty payments
A huge injection of money over over £1 billion and then royalties on future development and sales of the vast amounts of gas. The amount per MMCF may be small but it will be free cash with no investment or effort by FRR.
So we will move to Moldova with a wad of cash in back pocket. Then in future we will receive cash from royalties.

If the gas is as FRR believe those royalties would soon become considerable

Don't shoot me for this, its just my hopes and what i feel is possible with FRR.

I know as much and little as the rest of you, but i have been to the meetings and made eye contact, shaken hands with and spoken openly with Zaza.

Well i added the Audio from the last few meetings to my google drive so people can make their own minds up about FRR.
Now where anyone finds any negative from that meeting - i just can not understand.
However i am quite happy that people listen and then make their own financial decisions based on that and any other research they do.

I am not going to tell anyone to buy based on my thoughts, but for the record, i am very positive about FRR based alot on the last two meetings. I talked to Zaza face to face. He is not someone who i feel is out to con anyone.
He come across to me as someone offering ordinary people, a chance to be part of something that will become extraordinary. Those who walk the walk will benefit along with him and others like SN.

Yes i am a positive poster on here. I hold a large holding and have no intention of selling any. If i sell that damn house will be adding more. I speak the truth as i see it.

I get that holders get frustrated, i have my self had moments of frustration and doubt.
Now i do not understand why anyone holding and not considering selling would come here and talk negatively. I do not mean honest questions and what IFS, i mean why would anyone attempt to hurt their own investment and actually try to take price down.
The answer is ... they would not, no one is that stupid.

So here are reasons people like to talk down a company
1. They sold out and would hate to see they made a mistake in doing so.
2. They are trying to get in at a lower price
3 They are short selling
4. Trolls ( Sorry but internet has a new breed of sad and lonely people who dwell causing misery)

I share my Google drive to help others and i try to speak with honestly and integrity. That backed up with unaltered audio from meetings.

Oh and please...
Those here to save me from financial ruin, with advice to sell now. If i wanted a superhero i would ask for one.

I don't want a super hero to save me, one of those super majors will do just fine

That box is not empty
You do not fight over an empty box

The RNS yesterday shows a few things to us.

Firstly remember a few weeks back when YA announced that they wanted paying in full and then Outrider said they felt we had in effect - no means to pay, the shorter's used that to scare holders. Well Friday we learnt two things.
Firstly that Yorkville (YA) stepped back - an indication that they were at least partly to blame if not fully to blame. We could speculate that YA were acting illegally, but its speculation and we should leave the company resolve these issues amicably where possible.
Now with outrider, i believe Zaza played a very good card when he put Hope on the Bod, This snake along with the company Outrider had previously used inside information and company secrets too attempt a hostile takeover. On the Bod meant it was easier in future to prove he had information if he tried it again. In fact it should now be very dificult for Outrider to make any aggressive move. You keep friends close and enemies closer. When a RNS does come saying who replaces Hope, it could be a very the start of a very interesting start new period .

It secondly showed - that YA are confident that FRR have ability to pay into the future. This RNS made it clear we would be paying CASH.
We also can pay early.

Super Majors are looking at our block and this takes time. I do not think a name will be dropped until a deal is done. Its even possible if one walks away that the NDA keeps their identity secret.

Personally i do not think it will be long before a deal is announced. I suspect they are doing due diligence and wanting more than a JV. A jV may suit us more at this time to prove up more of the asset. So when we sell we get more value. I suspect a Super Major may want more control over the assets. So the Lawyers and engineers will scrutinise the deal and over time come up with a solution that suits all best. The news on a deal will break almost without warning. Suspension is a very real possibility, as is the complete sale of Frontera Georgia.

Best for the company would be the complete sale of Frontera Georgia with further funds in future based on
1. A percentage of profit per barrel sold
2. A percentage of discoveries in zones further down, not yet analysed.
3 A percentage of any future sale of blocks as they become explored and proved.

The perfect sale in my amateur eyes would be a sale of FRR Georgia for many many millions.
With a percentage deal of something like 5% on all Gas or oil sold in future. Remember when we sell FRR Georgia the $400m i believe thats already owed to us, probably as tax incentive - so we could possibly start the valuation with out assets at that amount.

You do not fight over an empty box and i think many on here can see that.

You do not fight over an empty box

Outrider tried to steal our assets before

Seems the action is hotting up and velocity increasing

You can sell if you want to, buy this guy is not for selling

its on way be with you Saturday morning

We have got it out

I think timing has been for a reason, but we have had long term production and just multiply that and the company would do okay. We are now testing new zones and the news seems to get better on each zone we explore with the drill.

Its us share holders that have set the timelines and expectations. (Ok the xmas presents too)

I think from memory that Zaza stated a timeline and it still has 3 years to run before we get near value, of course with a major involved that may become a much shorter timeline.

I am sure 18 months ago he said give me 3 years to make a billion dollar company - so lets give him that time.
I think plan A was to use revenue to add more wells and then a snowball effect. That plan seems to evolved and i think its a positive where results have sparked an interest with big players SUPER MAJORS

I think the xmas presents may be a year late but well worth the extra wait.

There are a number in the area
Tullow i believe few weeks ago hit water
Then Char today

Global Petroleum are also in the area and others too

At one stage it was thought as almost a dead Cert.

I spread my risk across many sectors and in oil and gas a few different companies in very different areas but biggest holding by far is here.
My reasoning was as in my previous post

Thing with FRR is the oil and gas is proved to exist.
getting at it has taken time, and proving concept

I am in other shares as well as this
3d seismic carried out and then a big drill off shore, two different companies same area.
What do both hit?
WATER
Chariot today dropped 60% on this news

The risk in this game is huge, 3d seismic studied by different companies and they got it very wrong.

FRR have shown oil is not only in place, but can be extracted with long term flow rates, just looking now at different zones and best extraction method.
Gas - the company found gas, the issue was we tried doing it cheap and reworking an ex soviet well. We learnt a lot but currently not producing commercial gas from deep zones ( although arguably flaring some)

I would suggest this takes a lot of risk away. Its on shore where its safer and cheaper to exploit and we know that its there.

This is why my biggest holding is here and not in Char. I still hold in Char as they have other prospective areas of interest including off shore Brazil. However if looking at risk i suggest its minimal here and if a major does sign up i would suggest its almost non existent.

I would take a company with negative equity and found resources every time than one with cash but nothing more than 2d and 3d data.

Prison warden that beats the hell out of Tom Winithrith - i am not going to spoil the film by saying what you do to the scumbags food - not sure i will ever eat mayonnaise again thou

No one gets left out

Thats the very reason i started recording the meetings.
It does help when people think something different may have been said, than was.

We also had people trying to put a negative spin on things, which i knew was wrong.
people could only take our word for it.

There is also the context in what way something was said. The magic pause, the delayed answer etc

Remember folks - i know have two meetings available ( last one was with popcorn) so we can also compare progress by listening to both.

One day someone will pay big money for the recordings when they make the film "The final Frontera"
The aim share that made Millionaires and finally sank Vinny's bath tub.

Cast
SN and Zaza the heroes
TW the villain
Coggy and Puddy The enntertainers
Zibs - The main voice over
5p , Bedex, ODR1, Timster, Bomber - stunts and special effects
Mole - the insider
Vinny - and some others - the lost boys

Poetry by Mapp
Firegazer the fool
Finally Pyro - sound

What a film

i am not really one to read Motley Fool posts but this is one i happened across dated today.
They talk about majors and they insist that a deal is a must for the company

Conclusion
Considering the above, Frontera looks to me to be a binary opportunity. Either the company agrees on a partnership or it doesn’t, in which case, the future for the business looks bleak and the shares could plunge below 0.2p.

Personally, I’m not comfortable making these high-risk, high-reward type of bets, but for investors with a bigger risk tolerance, Frontera might be an attractive pick. If the company hits the oil jackpot, the sky could be the limit for the shares.

You Really Could Make A Million

So thats what they say and for a site negative about Frontera it reads quite positive to me
I really like the bit about make a million on the end, one day Rodney huh