Member Info for pv72

Something has been bugging me the last couple of days, and no, it's not IJWT adopting a more negative tone. He's perfectly entitled to his views, as everyone else is.

What is bugging me are the principles behind P90, P50 and P10 calculations. Being a relative novice to O&G exploration, we all place a great deal of weight on whether something has a 90% or 50% or 10% chance of success. And we appear to take those numbers as gospel. Even though the numbers are created by humans with their inherent biases to the positive or negative.

It then got me thinking whether statistically speaking reported P10s are actually only true 10% of the time or not. Or are P10s really P5s or P1s. Likewise are P50s over exaggerated or under played. Etc.

Is anyone aware of any studies in this space or had any real life examples of discoveries being far off those statistical calculations? Either to the upside or downside?

Or am I just overthinking the whole thing and should just chill and watch the story unfold further?

Thoughts?

We can all see the argument that capital may not have been efficiently deployed in light of all the missed timescales etc.

All of this nervous anxiety is rooted in the fact that we dont know what is really going on. There are prob good reasons for this. But we dont know what they are for certain.

To provide balance, I am surprised noone today has mentioned the advisors asking for payment in shares, unsolicited......the advisors are either very astute or completely deranged.

I know which way I'm leaning.....the advisors are meant to be technical experts after all.

GLA

@FUDin

Please stop! Your disingenuity knows no bounds. Are you the person who is buying big today per chance?

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@AJI

Fine post! Prob will be the best post if the day!

Shame people like Porters will not take their own advice and close their position.

For the record, I dont like missed timescales either but my engineering background tells me that these are to be expected.

You either believe this will be monetized or you dont. This is high risk and not for widows and orphans. But the risk/reward is worth it for me.

@FUDin

Please behave yourself!

Isnt CM in T&T a tangible asset then? They also spent a bit getting RoI all gift wrapped and ready to go. Forgive me if I got that wrong 🤣🤣🤣

Great share Lochnez.

This is very significant as prob indicates that previous decisions to block were unlawful. Would be interesting to read the full text of the appeal findings.

For PRD, it means one less major obstacle stands in the way for its ROI plans. But the downside risk is that there might suddenly be lots of competition if all opposition falls away after the next GE, whenever that may be.

Interesting times ahead, to be sure! 😉

GLA

Here's hoping we get more seismic news over the coming weeks....pun very definitely intended! 😉

@Jpeg

Keithoz doesnt do SP predictions. But what he does very well in my view is assess possible NPVs. He did crunch some numbers a few weeks ago wrt CNG development possible valuations. It's in his post history.

I'd also recommend you check out billyrayval's post history too. He has also shared some very good informed calculations.

Value very much depends on flow rates which we dont know for certain but on balance of probability we think is commercial. We also know that a flow rate of a few mmcfgpd probably underpins current SP.

So depending on your evaluation of likely flow rates and remember that they were targeting 50mmcfgpd, the final valuation could be a few bags from here.

Good luck

Cloughie was one of my all time heroes....light years ahead of his time....favourite story was the time he took his full back back out on to the pitch after a game..."now young man, I need you to show me something"...."what's that boss?"....."the f@@@ing hole you disappeared down second half"

Legend! 🤣🤣🤣

Gents

I wouldn't worry too much about it.

If we ask Porters, he will tell us that all you saw was a local lighting his cigarette by the rig.

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Have a great w/e

Hallelujah!

Porters has finally changed his tune. Apparently we do now have gas but it is only just commercial!?

As a reminder, they were targeting 50mmcfgpd over 17 horizons. One of which had a strong case to achieve 10mmcfgpd on its own (A sands).

'Only just' commercial is 1-3mmcfgpd according to PG. Something around that or a tiny bit more would prob underpin current SP.

I would not expect all 17 horizons to come in as planned. Some will, but some will come under and some over.

On balance of probability, and remembering bell curves from maths at school, I would expect a range of between 20-40mmcfgpd is most likely. If my hypothesis holds true, then the SP will bag a few times from here on a corporate transaction.

Then we move onto MOU5 where the real excitement begins.

All in my humble opinion. All caveats apply. DYOR

GLA

@porters

They're spending hard cash on reservoir flow assurance and field development plans.

If the well was a duffer, they'd save that cash and go all in on MOU5. They'd also have told us yesterday with the Lonnie is leaving news. That way they'd have a convenient scapegoat.

It's more than likely commercial based on the last RNS. Get over it and change your tune - for everyone's sake, please!

GLA

For their excellent contributions over the last couple of days in the face of the adversity. Very much appreciated by me and many others.

Now what's my take?

I reckon we have found gas in commercial quantities otherwise we wouldn't have proceeded with the reservoir flow assurance or field development plans. To do so would be extremely bad business practice and poor use of SH funds in such a risky way. If results were bad we'd have done it in one hit yesterday with Lonnie leaving news. It is much more likely we are maximising what we have independently for a corporate transaction at some point.

The trolls need to move on from there is no gas/it is not commercial.

The questions now should centre on how much is there? What can they monetise it for? And by when?

We know they were targeting 50mmcfgpd over 17 horizons. Keithoz helpfully reworked fox Davies CNG NPV calculation to determine that we could be looking at c£1.50 SP NPV unrisked if all horizons came good. If that came in, what could PRD get? So that's the high end case.

What's the low end then? My guess is we are commercial and we will have min 10mmcfgpd. BRV reminded us that we know the A sands alone had 11m of net pay which was over pressurised by 122psi. That alone could get 10mmcfgpd. BRV also helpfully showed his conservative calculation yielding NPV of c$150m or c£115m. That equates to an SP of c20.25p. What could PRD get for that? Whatever they do get should easily underpin current SP and give us a little more imo.

The next question is when? Anyone who has had any major engineering construction experience will tell you that nothing ever goes to plan. There are always spanners thrown in to delay things. It is highly likely that some horizons came good and others not so well. But equally some may have exceeded expectations. There are all unknown by us currently. Then theres the corporate negotiations....who knows? We could be a month or 2 away from knowing the full picture. Maybe longer.

Just for the record, I dont buy into the helium prospect as yet. Although MOU5 does offer some excellent potential. We may go it alone or we may yet farm out. PRD management will make the call on that one way or another.

Those are my thoughts and I'd welcome any rational views to the contrary. I'm not interested in PRD is doomed to fail because all tiny e&p outfits fail in the end. I understand that risk thank you.

What is your risk/reward? It is your choice. I've made my choice. I'm buckled in for the ride.

GLA

@porters

Sensible and rational people try to read between the lines of any RNS, no matter how clear it is written. What do you read from this RNS? If the answer is you need more clarity, then that is breathtaking naivety on your part if you ask me.

@Terrence

Absolutely. It would be hilarious if Lonnie was poached by the next farminee to continue developing the guercif region. But again, probably fanciful....

GLA

What follows is pure conjecture.....

According to todays RNS, they reckon they can manage without him.

They already have a person in T&T. RoI is packaged and good to go if the govt there ever gives the green light.

Maybe they dont plan to drill many more wells in Guercif.

Maybe they already think they've proved enough. Maybe there's a deal to be made....

Go long, short, hold or sell. The choice is yours.

GLA

All doubtful and pure conjecture

Doesn't Lonnie have some options? If he is deemed a 'good' leaver, then these may remain.

In any case, he will be hit hard with the drop in his £50k investment from some years ago. I cant see anyone wishing to throw that away. No matter how spiteful, unless he already is a multimillionaire and it is small change to him - which I dont believe he is....

Let's await test results....

Gla

Very frustrating but hey ho, the show goes on. Havent we been here before when Pilbeam(?) left?

I've been in enough boardrooms over the years to see that there are any one of several possible reasons for Lonnie's departure. Take your pick from health issues or performance issues or business issues or clash of egos. There's prob more than that to choose from.

He prob has a notice period to serve but may already be on gardening leave. All pure speculation but would explain 'leaving' and not 'left'.

Whilst the low SP is tempting me to add, I'm refraining because the size of my bet is big enough already for me.

It's still all about the testing results...nothing has changed there. Let's see what that tells us. Hopefully not too long to go now.

Gla

👏👏👏👏

Now THAT is funny, donal!

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@donal

Response from mariopeter on the other site below. Hope this makes sense to you....

Morning PV

Same but maybe filters different. I can see a rebuilding of what looks like the bottom of a square in last two days immediately south and southeast of the well. When this has happened before we have begun testing. Do a backcheck to January when we were testing and the to start of August if you change the dates.

https://browser.dataspace.copernicus.eu/?zoom=17&lat=34.32132&lng=-3.38545&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=U2FsdGVkX18mNZK3dDqUbt9XwArdovWJFqaR9LzPiLQb%2BDIXsxS9IL1E6%2FPV9cuqdU8dHN8wOAyH%2FLFxxq9nhxNPzbakM2mn%2Bo2SIF4FjAlKirDCD8JcOYkomxtY9xEd&datasetId=S2_L2A_CDAS&fromTime=2024-09-06T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-09-06T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=2_FALSE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22&cloudCoverage=30&dateMode=SINGLE

I'm in there occasionally....have asked mariopeter for more details....will feed back when he responds