Member Info for PUTUP

" This, all thing being equal, should result in the share price rising."

How so?

All things being equal the size of the pie hasn't changed. There are less forks and those forks lift a slightly bigger slice but the pie hasn't gotten bigger.

It doesn't matter a tot if they are brought into treasury or, for example, the EBT (rather than cancellation). The "enrichment" people stupidly fear comes from approval of compensation schemes (eg the LTIP) and not from buying back shares and holding them in treasury. When options vest and are exercised by the recipients, shares have to be delivered. They can be supplied from new issuance, shares in treasury or shares held in an EBT. Only when they are delivered do they come into circulation and are counted as in-issue. If you want to b*tch about compensation protest those schemes not the buyback.

EDIT: "can't simply look"

"This was trading at £3 when oil was going through the pipeline but you think £2 is fair value? "

Fair value for 48k production and a ratified contract with current terms

What was the cost of Brent then? Much higher

Were they paying a discount for KBT then? No

Have they paid capital OUT of the company since then in the form of dividends and, lately, buybacks? Yes

Were expected volumes higher then vs now? Yes

Was field capacity higher then versus now? Yes

Are risks higher now than then? Yes

You can simply look at the historical price and ignore context

2024 LTIP approved...by 99% of votes. 😳

"I keep my £2 year end fair value estimate "

Cum dividend price. Ex div estimate will rate downward by dps.

Re fundamentals

- volume in June disappoints

- uptick in price by $1 is good but not enough to offset drop in volume

- volumes to be further affected by required work at PF 1

- cash balances as expected/modeled

Nothing else of note

I keep my £2 year end fair value estimate (£1.48 ex receivables) predicated on a return to exports and full recovery of receivables (both of which look vulnerable to revision).

More return of capital - expected - but disappointing on fundamentals.

Ho hum. Let's see if the giddiness lasts. (At resistance now and with a spike in the 14 day RSI.)

It is the responsibility of each shareholder to understand the buyback and react according to their own views on value. Have you bought more of the company at the vwap by doing nothing or have you taken your pro rata share of the cash distribution or have you taken a disproportionate share of the distribution by selling more than the percentage reduction in shares outstanding? Decision is yours and the outcome in the future is your responsibility. Simples.

Looks like today was

34,000 @ 141.30

91,000 @ 141.40

I added today to my currently small position. Haven't received execution notification but should have bought about 35k at 50p.

Yes autocorrect got my typo and once sent I couldn't edit

Brexit was implemented. The Brexit you dreamed of was nothing but a pipe dream. The stupidest act of self-harm ever inflicted on a nation.

But go do your vote solicitation elsewhere.

Nick Farage sold the UK a pack of lies in Brexit. Now he's at it again. Beware.

You jinxed it

Don't expect more volume. Let the Summer doldrums begin. Buyback buying will likely slow as liquidity dries up over the summer.

"Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger’s Day."

Complete junk

Or more pointedly, the operational update that we should get ahead of the AGM...

I'm still modeling production at the top end of management's recent guidance as to field capacity (48k) and recent sales price of $27 a barrel. However, I expect to be disappointed in this regard. Hopefully not. I have pushed export restart out a month to October 1 (recognizing that this too is likely optimistic).

The plan was always to seek re-authorisation to continue after the AGM. Without such authorisation there'd be no approval to continue. Nothing has changed.

Expect the authorisation to continue buybacks to be fully supported. But don't expect them to be conducted at anything other than a measured pace (especially at these levels vs current fundamentals).

That plus the 50k is very likely today's buyback