Member Info for PUTUP

"There are no fundamentals to the rise."

This we agree on.

Doesn't mean you don't have responsibility for your own action/inaction.

"C, D, E and all the other 'holder' bozos watch on"

Only if they want to

"GKP have made a firm commitment to buyback $10m by 21/6."

Unfortunately this is incorrect. The current permission runs until then. They haven't committed to completing the full amount at all. If it's partially done, so be it.

"And a further commitment to seek approval for additional buybacks at the AGM."

Approval, yes. Action is a completely different story. We will have to wait and see in that regard. (I do expect more for as long as the price remains at a level that key shareholders are happy to increase their ownership by not participating in the distribution.)

@truthsayer A scam? The buyback process is open to all to participate in. What makes you think 'insiders' are the only ones participating? If you want some of the distribution then you have to sell a little into it. If you don't, you'll own a little more of the company at the buyback price - 135p average so far and currently you'd be in-the-money on that decision. There's even an option to take a disproportionate share of the distribution. How's that a scam? You just have to get off your ar$e and take some responsibility for your actions/inaction.

As for those looking at the Marathon transaction, aint it great when you actually own the resource...

The sale at 141p was selling some stock I'd bought back lower down. I snoozed on this morning's early trading and did not have a sell order in unfortunately. (Selling the 15k would take me back to my initial holding less the stock I sold just above 320p and 207p respectively.) I've no intention of buying stock anywhere near current levels.

It would be nice to see some positive development in fundamentals to support this recent rise... Unfortunately there's no reason to change my fair value targets (even if a restart to exports we're to be announced which I have pencilled in for September 1).

Let discussions finally start....

"In the end it's all about Buy or Sell. "

An endless source of wisdom...

$ not £

26% done as of close yesterday

Don't forget about the 18% rise from 120p to 142p

Buybacks are simply a distribution of cash. Nothing more. Nothing less. To get your pro rata share of the cash distribution you have to sell a few/pro rata (about 0.7% of holding so far) into the buyback. If you do nothing, you have bought more of the company at the buyback price. Before today's activity that price was 135p. Presumably it will be slightly lower now.

Yesterday's sale was at 141p

Haha

I sold some yesterday. Only a very small amount. Just 10k. I had another 15k on offer today at 142p which didn't get executed.

Yesterday was my first trade in GKP for over a year. I always regretted buying back the stock I sold at 320p and 207p (on the announcement of the move to KBT pricing).

(Core position built between May '20 and August '21. Sold some just above 320p. Sold some just above 207p. Bought them back much lower down and now flipped some of that repurchase out. Given the size of my exposure I wasn't prepared to add in the dips to 80s. My average is 88p. Plus I have gotten about 1.4x investment back from dividends.)

"The $32 that PUTUP is using is an improvement on that $35."

Yep. People seem to have forgotten the two things that led the stock down. The move to KBT pricing came first. ITP closure came second.

"Not only do we have a pool of +$200m currently, it will also not be depleted considering the growth ambitions ahead. "

The gross (Contractor) figure as of Dec 31 2023 was $224 million. That includes the cost recovery in the unpaid receivables of $153 million (gross). We can only recover that amount once (by payment of the receivables or perhaps SOMO will allow recovery from future production if the KRG do indeed default - who knows). You'd be really stupid to put a multiple greater than 1 on CRP recovery. Assuming we will get paid the receivables, GKP's share of the CRP is down to about $40 million by the end of this month. Once that is recovered, it is dollars recovered = dollars spent.

"Now, let's assume exports are restarted and we get a -$18 discount on brent i.e. $65 oil price @ 44k b/d (lets discard that they reached 55k b/d the weeks before closure); "

It would be bold to assume such a discount when, prior to closure the discount was about $32 a barrel. Good luck!

HobGoblin, to be clear, I said that IF YOU ASSUME 50k production in perpetuity sold at $25 a barrel, or even $35 a barrel, then the stock would be fully valued. I'm assuming a very different scenario. The point was to say that the stock was already factoring in a better scenario than local sales forever. (IIRC the stock was about 110p at the time.) Simply that.

I'm modeling a MUCH better scenario (than local sales in perpetuity) and hence my current targets of 201p (149p if you exclude receivables) which I discounted to end May to derive 180 and 129p, respectively.

I don't use multiples or assume yields but my target year end enterprise value represents about 5x normalised free cash flow. (By normalised I mean the cash flow that can be generated in perp once the CRP is normalised with 48/50k production and a $70 Brent, current contract terms and the other assumptions I outlined regarding discount to Brent etc.)

The R Factor isn't such a big issue. Normalisation of the CRP is entirely different. Remember we are still recouping historical costs faster than we are incurring because there's a little CRP left. That doesn't continue much longer.

Good luck.

They weren't talking to begin with. For something to stall, it has to start in the first place. I understand there have been no substantive discussions since the initial meeting we heard about and it would be hard to even classify that as substantial.

Talks stall? Ha! They're not even talking!

"Link: [LINK REMOVED] "

A pathetic try. You'll have to do much better. 😂

"PUTUP What part of saying one thing and doing the opposite is Credible? "

Who did that?

Yawn

for all those that would like to read it again, here was the post (in april):

(in response to a comment by rog the dodger):

"no problem if i’m wrong because @ 35 dollars a barrel 108 p and a reasonable profit margin"

i love it how people expect $35 when the company was last paid $25... a 29% lower figure.

just for kicks i plugged $25 per barrel forever into my model. without arrears recovery (there isn't room for it at those prices) it suggests a fair value for gkp (50k production in perp sold at $25 and assuming the current contract remains intact) of 83p per share. (£1 year end discounted at 20% to end april.) the current share price assumes a lot better scenario than limping along forever with domestic sales at $25 a barrel. the equivalent but assuming $35 a barrel sale price is 114p. so you could say the (bullish?) $35 per barrel scenario is pretty much fully baked into the current price already. we need a return to exports and recovery of arrears to make appreciable gains. "

i told you guys back in march the company would be doing buybacks this year.

performance talks. bull**** walks. i'm at 3x investment on gkp right now. others?