Member Info for PUTUP

“ Yes fully understand we probably won't achieve 48k average for the year ”

Especially with a stoppage costing 26k….

Understand what matters and what doesn’t. Or get burnt.

Changing the local sales price from $28 to $30 for the rest of this year doesn't even move my fair estimate a full 1p...

Manipulation? Woohaha. Nah, just the fluff blowing out. Now back to a fairer value ex receivables for 48k production (assuming a full return to exports early next year and the retention of all key contract terms).

Actually, somewhat perversely we gapped through the gap. 122-124 will now close on the way up - whenever that happens.

Oh gee, gap filled.

“Drop below support ”

Hasn’t dropped to support yet (oh distasteful muppet). That sits down closer to 116/115p (and falling).

“Put your big boy pants on ”

Says the kid who needs to grow up

Such a bunch of charming fellows. When someone produces a view that doesn’t fit your naive biased narrative you can only resort to insult. Pathetic.

Well it tried to break to the upside through resistance yesterday and today but failed twice. Tomorrow will be interesting with broader markets taking a bath. Resistance just blow 133p and support down at 116.50 or so. Let's see what happens...

Good to see Brent bouncing off support, even if the reason for doing so is rather ominous...

Someone tied to move some volume in the closing auction. Tomorrow will be either interesting or utterly dull.

Prior to the 13th of May announcement the stock closed at 119.80p. Nothing fundamental has changed since then (except the announcement of work on PF1 which will cost 26,000 in production and sales).

They've distributed $25m to shareholders. Capital out of the company. $15m of this was in the form of dividends, with a requisite c5p per share adjustment.

Why would you expect anything other than fickle sentiment to support the price and for that not to wane without any progress on fundamentals? Next stop the half year results. Maybe then we get another $10m buyback announcement. Hopefully we get news of progress in contract discussions.

"The 'current contract' will not be upheld.

The bet is that the next version retains the fundamentals."

For as long as you continue to split hairs...

The 118p assumes all principal economic terms of the existing contract are retained (I don't care if via ratification of existing contract or a new one) and exports restart at the beginning of 2025. I expect the receivables to be recovered over time and hence am not selling out at current prices.

" The bet is that the next version retains the fundamentals. "

Ok that's all we care about. So you believe that the principle economic terms of the existing contract will be upheld in the new one. Good.

Let's wait and see what happens - both with respect to key contract terms and the receivables. Until then, I won't pay more than my estimate of fair value ex receivables ex growth. Currently that's about 118p. But as field capacity continues to fall that figure is vulnerable to further downside.

"Self-funding growth to ca. !00kbopd. "

Self funding is a misnomer. Development costs still need to be paid for. They're paid by the KRG/Iraq (the owner of the resource) via reimbursement of the Contractor via cost recovery. The level of cost recovery is set in the contract. It is this very cost recovery that is in great dispute. No cost recovery, no investment, no growth. And yet you have little faith that the current contract will be upheld... Again, a big disconnect between your views on fundamentals and value...

"Get over it"

If that's your belief the stock would be a sell. I make fair value ex receivables as circa 118p as of end Aug (YE 129p discounted for 4 months). You continue to have trouble rationalizing your views on fundamentals with your view on price.

I wouldn't expect much of any significance on Aug 1. If there were any good news it would have been released alongside the bad last week.

Ah ok I thought you were talking GKP (and not industry-wide). Well, there are a lot of civil servants that need more than that to be paid and some is locked up in Lebanese banks (>$600m).