Member Info for PUTUP

"Suppose that leads on to the question of where exactly is the KRG 50% cut of current production going?

I'd estimate $150m per month every month"

How do you get to that number when GROSS field sales are currently c$34 million a month?

The issue is cost recovery (cost oil per barrel). They haven't even gotten to profit oil yet.

"As the KRG/MNR published the PSCs many years ago, do you imply that there are additional (unpublished) parts that are confidential ?

Parts that are nothing to do with the shareholders, or parts that are nothing to do with the Iraq Government?"

As we know, there have been amendments and some agreements weren't documented in a new contract (eg the change to the working interest in profit oil and CBC). The contracts are confidential between signatories and agreeing parties - the KRG/MNR and IOC. I understand that the IOCs are not in a position to share the current agreements because of legal jeopardy. Without the other legal challenge being dropped they simply cannot share the contracts.

"Only 14 months to wait before the pipeline opens. "

Where does this 14 month timeline come from? While it may be awhile - I have pushed off my assumption of export restart to the beginning of 2025 - I'm not aware of any magical dates upcoming.

"The BOD will do buybacks first as that's like paying themselves windfall dividends. "

What a load of boll*cks. A buyback is a dividend only to those that take a share of the distribution by selling into it. Those that don't sell are buying more of the company at the buyback price. What did BOD members do?

(To get your pro rata share of the $10 million distributed via the buyback you had to sell c2.6% of your holding at £1.3982 or better.)

Gross field sales is NOT revenue to GKP. Doof!

He's not wrong on the risk of a fall to 122p though. That little gap beckons. Even that level is above my YE ex-receivables fair value calc discounted to end July... As I've said before, the stock has traded remarkably well considering the absence of progress on fundamentals.

(The announcement of the shutdown of PF1 with a loss of 26k in production has been a negative.)

Highly doubt there will be another dividend other than another small "final" for the year (at some point next year).

The crude oil market is visibly tight at the moment, with inventories drawing, strong backwardation and robust physical differentials. However, the balance is likely to return to equilibrium in 4Q when seasonal demand tailwinds abate and both OPEC and non-OPEC supply return to growth. The latter likely continues into 2025, which on the current outlook, sees OPEC and non-OPEC supply growing by ~2.5 mb/d, well ahead of likely demand growth. With inventories down in 3Q and flat in 4Q, we expect Brent to remain supported around the mid-$80s in 2H, but likely moderate to mid/high-$70s during 2025. However, with Brent around the mid-$70s, we suspect prices will find support from lower-quartile US shale break-evens. Also, we expect OPEC to remain proactive.

Looks like they'll wrap things up today (if they haven't already this morning)

Such a classy post... not.

Summer has been in full swing for some time now. Just not in the UK. It’s lovely in Bali right now.

Rally in sterling knocks my fair value for GKP lower still.

They should put some in the EBT to cover expected vesting.

On another note, the stock is struggling to hold above the support line. Today's close and that of tomorrow will be key.

Support down below 41... Interesting that it didn't tap it today. Likely more to come.

Sure. Complain about the compensation plan/strategy - don't worry about whether some stock ends up in treasury for a while. Unfortunately the time to complain about the 2024 LTIP has now passed. Did you complain/object? Now one can only complain about its implementation. Hint: whining here doesn't count.

You keep panicking that stock in treasury “can reappear… in the hands of employees “. Stock appearing in the hands of employers has nothing to do with whether there is stock in treasury. If there aren’t any in treasury, new ones will simply be issued. So once again, compensation schemes determine whether employees get stock. Don’t worry about whether stock is immediately cancelled or not. As for stock compensation schemes voters at the AGM loved the 2024 scheme…

(Try to keep up Belgrano. You’ve missed the point again.)

“In this case in the hands of employees who are essentially being bribed to turn up to work for a period.”

Compensation schemes determine what ends up in the hands of employees, not whether there’s stock in treasury or not.

“Which means they are not the same as cancellation buybacks.”

I couldn’t give a toss if they are cancelled or not. Totally irrelevant. In fact it would be very good to put more in the EBT to avoid future primary issuance.

Good to see that support held last week.

140.5 ish is support for the upcoming week. Resistance way up at 165p.

(We still have a gap to fill down at 122p though.)

I make it we have 10-11 days of buybacks left at the current rate and pricing. 140p VWAP so far.

Ho hum unless support breaks. Stock continues to trade above my YE 48k prod fair value ex receivables assuming return to export early '25. We will need progress on fundamentals to support the share price once the current buyback runs out - or another buyback.

145p the new buyback limit (150p less 5p for the div)