Thanks Seaangler........ My posts always have some logic and I do think of trying to make people think a little.
The profits we have all seen here the last 5 years are a once in a lifetime event, but they are just as easy to lose if you get to carried away.
I have had a very stress free summer, spent some of the profit and have plenty left to mop up some bargains in 2021. I am even thinking Taylor Wimpey could see a 50p entry level again and a punt on Lloyds Bank at 10p. I am excited at the prospects of 2021, as long as Covid-19 doesn't get me, hence I have been spending some.
Even the last RNS has been pretty fruitless. What use was it?
Was it part of contracts we already knew about from the last trading update? It conveniently didn't mention that, very deceiving.
What is the worth of this Scottish contract? It conveniently didn't mention that.
When RNS's are pretty faceless what is the real point of them, they tell you very little. I lose trust when an RNS is not fully truthful.
If the profit on those projects is around £ 50 million it might just about support today's SP 1LEO
That is the reality of it all. The SP at the moment is way to high for the speculative play it has become.
Lets see what the next 6 months brings. I am happy to be out at the moment. If it gets all those contract hits, I will glady buy back in, I don't mind missing out on a bit of profit to get security.
I done my risk bit here and am happy with the result.
I am happy to take risk again without contract wins, but not at today's way over the top SP, it has to be back down to 175p or below as things stand.
In the time I have been posting caution, all recent holders are now in a loss making situation and for the one year holders profits are slipping away.
As of this moment in time, three month holders are showing a small loss, one year holders still have a 400% plus profit. Not too bad for any share over the last 12 months.
Without doubt we are about to see the worldwide chaos of Covid-19 governments and people got complacent.
Without any doubt the UK will have another full lockdown, or as close to one as you will get and it will be more lengthy than the last.
The disaster of Brexit is becoming clearer by the day.
When I first mentioned these things a few months back there was an outside chance I got these predictions wrong, sadly now its not the case.
The real bloodbath is going to come in October, a month earlier than I originally thought.
Just be careful, this Covid-19 is going to cause havoc for the whole of 2021 and possibly beyond.
Cash is king. My summer has been pretty stress free and so is my winter.
I have taken chances all my investment life, but sometimes you have to realise when caution is needed, now is that time.
Good luck everyone.
1LEO......for starters the pubs and restaurants should be shut. You can only have 6 people in your own space yet can sit with many more unknown people in a pub or restaurant.
When the infection rate hits 10,000 next week the pubs will be shut, another week lost in preventing spread by our useless government.
Always lagging, just like they are with Hydrogen. A shame Cummings is not a buddy of Cooley's ;-)
Lomlcshizz, I totally agree about the long term future, but I don't agree about over paying for it.
I sold out and took advantage of the market, so am ready to take advantage when the price becomes more sensible for the speculative investment it is.
Green43........ things have also changed a lot since then. Our government has gone from bad to worse over its handling of Covid-19 and now we have the Brexit disaster on the horizon, also going from bad to worse.
The markets are ever evolving due to circumstances so you have to have the ability to change your mind.
We are where we are, there will be some bargains to be had in the next few months, including ITM when the price corrects itself over the next month or so.
Anyone buying in now is taking a big risk here.
Green43...... I got it wrong back then. Sometimes you have to have the mind of a politician in investment and do a U turn and just admit you got it wrong.
If you don't realise your mistakes in time, you get caught out.
Depends how many they can secure and make a profit on 1LEO.
Look back at the 2019 trading update....... over £ 400 million in the tender pipeline back then with just over £ 25 million under contract as per the 2020 update, with over £ 30 million under negotiation ( not secured)
They need to massively do better with that tender pipeline to justify the current SP. They need to have well over £ 200 million of contracts in the bag to justify anywhere near the current SP.
It's way over priced based on current known news
Of course I am still in love with ITM dsc1978, I have no reason not to be for it has never done me no harm.
If the SP can get near my re-entry target in October, I will be back in waiting for the second round of profits over the next 5 years.
There is massive chance coming to buy at at better chance very soon.
Another 20 - 30p drop likely tomorrow off the back of people opting for the security of cash off of still good profit if you have held for 6 months or more. No point in greedy as many are finding out at the moment.
Sharpeye52...... I don't trust financial institutions. They are the downfall of a lot of investors who put faith in them.
Many private investors have done better than Neil Woodford did the last 5 years and I make no bones about it, my research into Hydrogen just over 5 years ago and my caution over the last few months has made my portfolio outperform the majority of the financial institutions, over 2000% on ITM alone in just over 5 years and major gains on the likes of Plug Power and Ballard over the same period.
Sometimes the private investor does have a better insight as backed up by the late Jim Slater, someone I had a lot of respect for and learnt a lot from.
When it's your own cash, take care of it yourself because as in the case of Neil Woodford, they are not left picking up your own pieces.
I still believe the upside is going to be colossal and up until the beginning of the year nothing was going to stop it until Covid-19 came along.
This could put things on hold for a good two years until / if a vaccine is found. As much as Hydrogen is the thing of the future at the moment trying to preserve the existing economy is going to be the name of the game.
Without a vaccine or decent antidote this virus is not going anywhere anytime soon and we are about to experience it at its worst as we head towards winter, the viruses friend.
We know more about it with a lot of restrictive measures in place, yet its getting hold again, let that tell you something.
All public available finances will be needed to fight this now so very little will go into Hydrogen at the moment.
There will be a better time to invest here sometime in 2021 or maybe 2022. Its more speculative than ever especially when you read how nuclear energy could be heavily involved in producing Hydrogen.
I am worried that when ITM run out of cash that Linde may be positioning itself to just absorb it within Linde.
Nothing is clear cut here at the moment. It will be interesting to see the final results, they hopefully will not have any nasty surprises.
No share is going to escape. Anyone who got out of ITM last week were very fortunate.
It's not a case of if the FTSE 100 hits 5000 and pulls all good shares down with it, its when now.
Don't let greed get the better of you, when something is too good to be true, it normally is.
A few months back ITM shareholders were seeing over 700% return inside a 12 month period, as many who got greedy are now finding out that was a once in a lifetime opportunity.
Well done to all of those that grasped the opportunity and took the money and ran.
I predicted 175p here a few months back, I am down grading that today to 125p. With the way this pandemic is going there will be no government cash to invest in Hydrogen, it will be a case of preserving the existing economy and people.
To those that continue to hold and keep your cash in the wider market, you have seen nothing yet. Just go careful. It takes a while to accumulate but can be so quick to lose it.
Yes Troublesome...... Spell check, should have been devastating, and I don't have a clue just how badly a no deal Brexit will affect the market, its going to be bad if it happens, but just how bad, who knows. All I know is I won't be buying back in anywhere until there is more clarity.
Yes Stanners77 I think you are right. There will be more cash thrown at saving businesses and jobs come November when furlough ends, Hydrogen will sadly take a back seat by the UK government as they try and dig themselves out of their poor performance on Covid-19 and now Brexit.
2021 is not going to be an easy year for them. I think their will be some stock market bargains to be had due to the Tories disarray including a much better entry point here at ITM which is going to get dragged down by the general market blood bath that is edging ever closer.
Can't wait to get my finger back on the buy button here, across construction which has further falls to come and the best of the retailers such as Next that have a great online offering.
I am being tempted by nothing until we see what Brexit really is in early 2021 because like many, I really don't have a clue what Brexit really is and what it's going to do to the markets if we leave without a deal. That will have a deviating effect on many companies and the individuals if it does end in no deal.
Today's rise off the back of old news in reality gives a good opportunity for those that joined the party a little late without much loss.
The RNS today is pretty meaningless as it has no contract value attached to it and is probably part of the contracts under negotiation stated in the trading update back in June.
If this was a totally new opportunity since then I would have expected news of that in this RNS.
10MW of electrolysis for ITM does not amount to a major contact in any sense, let's hope they do better out of it than the similar size one with Shell which at the last trading update was making losses of circa £ 3 million.
It's still way over valued and I still believe over the coming months we will see the SP fall back to a more realistic price sub 200p to price in its speculative nature.
Hopefully the next trading update will reveal the Shell contract has not made further losses than declared, I would wish to see that confirmed before I re-invest because loss forecasts do tend to be on the optimistic side normally.
A good chance today for anyone considering selling to keep a little more profit before the eventual market blood bath just around the corner.
I think you have been at the sauce again Tonearm.
The SP has been way over priced for a while now and it's in the course of a correction. A bit further to go before it becomes worth a punt again for the speculative bet that it is.
I would like to see the final outcome of the Shell project. Let's hope the losses there do not end up worse than previously declared, that would not go down well. I have lost a bit of trust over that because they must have known about that long before they declared it.
Been a bit busy of late but have been keeping an eye on things.
Something I haven't seen in a long time is that holders from the last three months are now in a loss making situation, I think the six month holders will in the next few weeks see their profits evaporate too.
Brexit, the Covid-19 infection rate creeping back up, major job losses over the coming months is all adding to the general malaise in the market.
Also since the last trading update, which I didn't think was overly inspiring after the potential loss declaration on the Shell project by a few million, the directors sold out a lot of shares, and their has been no news flow on the contracts under negotiation or the tender pipeline.
The general market is also in the doldrums for the reasons I mention.
As per my posts from a couple of months back I think we will see the SP fall back below 200p.
Our government don't help either, not one peep out of them about investing in our energy security via Hydrogen, they are too busy rectifying their Covid-19 mistakes and creating new Brexit mistakes.
Not a good time to be buying highly speculative shares which ITM is, no profits, burning millions of cash and a very small turnover going forward in a very difficult economic times.
Stay well clear at the moment until we get some certainty of some sort is my thoughts, or be prepared to get burnt in the short to medium term.