Member Info for psmith64

Just checked out the last trading update to see if there was anything in there to sway me to buy back in now that the price seems to be holding up in a narrow range.
So next week we are a further 1/4 year on since that update and still no news of the £ 30 million of works under negotiation.

No news of anything new from all the Hydrogen hype from Europe.

It must be time to announce the results soon, let's hope we get some more positive news then because if it remains much the same, or should that Shell contract have unearthed some further losses then I believe the SP will plummet.

I genuinely do want to buy back in as the longer term future does look good if they can secure some decent projects, but I am staying with my gamble that there will be a better re-entry point in the not to distant future. I feel with the lack of more recent news that currently the SP is a bit top heavy.

And in predictable fashion dsc1978........ the see saw is on the way down again, and 175p gets closer in the rear view mirror this morning.

I could be tempted to do a day trade today if it continues to fall to pay for " the spenders" for the next holiday in September.

There is still a bit of time for that ahead of the October /November sell off :-)

dsc1978......... Let's review in late October early November. That is when a lot of money will be leaving the market and people taking a bit of profit where they are lucky to hold them.

In the meantime my cash is safe from when I bailed out here at 323p,waiting for the opportunity to invest back in. You all know my two scenarios for that.

Have also had a nice chilled summer not seeing my holiday see saw, not having to worry about where the price lands.

I still think I will be buying back in sub 200p because currently the furlough scheme masking a lot of bad news to come, sadly.

I never actually started a thread aimed at me.

I had been pretty quiet of late but it sounds like someone was missing me.

It's simple, let my predictions run without bringing up references and I am happy to keep quiet until early 2021.

If I don't respond to posts making a reference to me then new readers might not understand the point of them.

Oops, that should have said leaving the EU

Well 1LEO I admire your brevity at the moment and I know from my time invested in a few Hydrogen shares the last 5 years not being adverse to some risk has been pretty life changing for me as an investor.

Never investing in a time of a pandemic before and also with the change in our country status leaving the UK, I am not brave enough to invest in these times of the total unknown.

All I have to go on with the pandemic is the past history books of what happened in the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic and a great depression has to be a possibility.

Come the end of October we will know the full extent of unemployment in the UK, I don't think it's going to look pretty from what has happened to date even before furlough ends.

That's when I believe we will see the start of the major bloodbath here, if not before.

It will be fast, and I believe it will catch a lot of people out.

I hope I am wrong for those still heavily invested.

The other problem 1LEO is some people only want to listen to what they want to hear.

That can be very dangerous. Sometimes you have to stop and think and look at all views, then DYOR.

There is something not right with the markets at the moment, they appear to be very false and I do believe it is down to a lot of new money piling in from bored people furloughed new to investment thinking it's a good thing. Lots of day trading keeping things buoyant, but that cash will run out soon.

The clever money is out of the market at the moment waiting for the crash. That is my view.

I have said it before. The majority of trades here are small retail trades when you look at the size of trades in the whole.

One major profit taker and the volatility will return. A few major sellers which will be likely as the SP hangs around this current price and then we will see the SP tumble.

1LEO. I have as much right to post here as anyone and make observations.

I fully intend to re-invest when the SP gets more realistic based on specific news, not generic news.

Lets hope in November when the factory is complete we start to get some positive specific ITM news flow.

Tonearm. Nobody knows this this company better than the directors. They sold out big time in June. Graham Cooley holds very few shares and whatever happens to ITM in the future it doesn't really matter.

He is not greedy. That transaction in June made him a multi millionaire and he will be able to live pretty comfortably for the rest of his life. Job done for Graham Cooley.

Anyone that has major belief in their company as you described does not sell out at this stage. Jeff Bezos didn't did he.

I would be more comfortable if Graham Cooley was staking a bit more of his cash at the moment.

His sales changed my mind a bit, as did the trading update declaring the Shell loss.

My fear now is that the next cash injection will not be from a position of strength but one of desperation needing cash to stop insolvency in very difficult economic times.

All that the EU says is great but make no bones about it when the UK transition period over on December 31st and the EU losing its cash from one of the major contributors financially it could well be the end of the EU with many of its remaining nations in dire financial positions.

I am pretty much staying out of the market until early 2021 when we know a bit more about the pandemic and the fall out of Brexit.
I have always been a risk taker and the last 10 years has been a bonanza as far as investment goes. I am not brave enough to take any chances over the next 6 months.

I have never made so much profit on the markets over the last 10 years and I believe it could be very easy to lose the lot over the coming 6 months.

I used the phrase " bloodbath" a few weeks back and I firmly believe we are going to see the biggest worldwide stock market crash in modern times.

I sincerely hope I am wrong for all those fully in at the moment because I hate to see anyone lose their hard earned cash.

I can't believe the complacency out there at the moment, it doesn't add up in my mind..

Anyway, I don't care what happens over the next 6 months because I am very safe at the moment, very busy with my work hence I haven't been around as much.

An interesting 6 months ahead and I will be keeping a very close eye on opportunities in 2021, there will never be a time again in our life to go bargain hunting for stocks, property and physical goods than what lies ahead in 2021,I have never been so certain of anything in my life and I will be around to be congratulated or hold my hands up and taking the flack for getting it wrong.

Sadly 1LEO people that are buying at today's price are buying way into the future on a maybe and at a greatly inflated price.

My crystal ball agrees with the long term future as long as nothing new and better comes along and that is what makes this a highly speculative punt at the current SP.

Just remember that ITM have got to where they are today off the back of many grants, many funded by our membership of the EU.

ITM has to now prove it can stand in its own two feet. It's first attempt at one of it's first major commercial projects off its own back with Shell in Germany is going to end in a major loss, and they don't appear to have won much of the tender pipeline of over £ 400 million declared in the 2019 trading update.

In the 2020 trading update they declared over £ 200 million of tenders in the pipeline, to date no news of new season substantial contract wins and to be honest after the Shell situation I would like to see any new contact win progressing with updates that the projects are making profit.

With the current expansion that will be needed to command the current SP and the current cash burn without doubt there will need to be a round of fundraising and who knows what the economy will be like by then.

As I have stated before there are two scenarios I would re-invest here, at 175p which would still be very speculative but much better value than today, or circa 400p with a full order book in the region of £ 200 million of sales.

Over the 5 years I have been in Hydrogen both Plug Power and Ballard have progressed much better, I am hoping that ITM catch up start winning some of the commercial tenders noted in the trading update. When that happens I will feel happier to get back in.

Until then I believe for my own circumstances I did the right thing to sell when I did.

I certainly have nothing to worry about in banking over 2000% profit when I sold at 323p,a few weeks back.

A great summer so far not having to worry about the ups and downs

Looking forward to November when I think there will be a bit of better value here and in the market in general when the reality of what lies ahead becomes more evident.

I used to like playing with fire, hence I invested heavily in Hydrogen stocks just over 5 years ago

Happy with my first round of profits and at some stage in the future I am positive there will be a second round when I decide its the right time to get back in.
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There is a lot of hype and hot air the last few months which really motored ITM and many others on to unbelievable heights

Lets see what evolves over the next couple of months. I want to see the results published so we can see an update on the Shell project losses and an update on how they are getting on with tenders from that pipeline.

The current SP is priced way into the future. ITM need to be turning over £ 500 million and making £ 50 million to justify the current SP All very possible sometime in the future if they have that factory working flat out, but that is some way off I believe in what is going to be a competitive market with some great players in the field.

Good luck everyone. Don't get greedy, I think the current SP after recent form will draw out some profit takers.

It's good to see the SP trading more steady even if its still way over priced at the moment.

I am still optimistic about 175p, but for the time being still happy to sit things out until we get some news to justify the current SP.

Looks like South Korea are taking Hydrogen very seriously.

Lets hope ITM can make some in roads out there. A couple of contracts like the one below would go some way to justifying today's SP. They will certainly have the manufacturing capacity for multi million pound contracts if they can win the tenders out there.

A good read...........

https://www.h2-view.com/story/212m-hydrogen-power-plant-project-complete/

All these people that have me on filter. It's not the first board I have contributed to this has happened on, some people just can't handle an alternative view to theirs and all they want to hear is what they want to hear.

I have been on the other side with an investment where I should have listened to some caution, hence I post like I do now at times especially when I am confident about what I write.

Nobody likes egg on their face do they? I don't expect to have any on mine in a few months time with what I have written here the last couple of months.

Like some here I too was deeply in love with this share when I first started posting here, then I woke up and came to my senses. When something is too good to be true, it normally is.

Anyway on the note about filters, it's time to go and filter a coffee and then back to work.

Have a good afternoon everyone that is still reading.

I agree with you ColinH100 regarding the long term future of Hydrogen, I just feel the whole sector has got caught in a bit of hype the last 12 months and is a little overpriced now.

That is my gamble to have cashed in a few weeks back and sit it out until /if the prices drop.

I am happy to risk losing out on a bit of profit if my gamble doesn't pay off and at the same time I don't have to worry about the volatility we see at the moment.

The last four months we have seen ITM trade between circa 90p - 365p, with up to daily swings of 25% at times, I currently now have no idea what the price should be, there don't seem to be many major buyers in the market for ITM, there is no specific news regarding ITM over the last four months that has driven the price up.

Enjoying the lower risk strategy at the moment and am ready to re-invest across the market when the time is right for me.

Way2L8........ There is every possibility that I could be wrong in this strange and baffling situation.

We all have different amounts of cash at stake, different stages of our investing life, and different investment strategies.

I like hearing all the different views from other investors and I totally understand that some may see my posts as negative rather than cautious which is how I see them.

Maybe 6000 is the floor of where the FTSE 100 should be, I suppose from its beginning of the year highs of circa 7700 what we see today is a major drop and will have hurt many.

I will feel more comfortable to invest more after the final outcome of Brexit is known in January 2021 and we know a little more on how Covid-19 is panning out by then.

I personally feel there is a larger than normal element of risk out there for investors.

I am not adverse to risk hence my journey with Hydrogen the last five years ago.

You talk about experts but do they really know best. I take What Investment every month and have done so for the last 25 years or so and it never ceases to amaze me just how useless some of these so called professional fund managers are when you look at their performance figures in the back of this magazine.

The last decade my portfolio has out performed the majority of them and that was down to a lot of research into Hydrogen just over 5 years ago and having a good knowledge of my career industry of construction, a sector I have been heavily invested in since 2008 when it took a hammering from the last recession.

Many private investors do so a better job than some of the fund managers out there. I would imagine those on this board that took the chance in Hydrogen over five years have done better than most out there and you didn't need a massive investment back then to be sitting on or cashing in major profits now when the market as a whole has suffered greatly over the last four months.

My gut feeling just tells me that 6000 looks top heavy for the carnage to come in the wider market.

Well ColinH100....... The bafoon is doing a great job of what Jezza would have done in spending money like no tomorrow and heading the country towards bankruptcy.

And we as tax payers will cop the bill. Its not exactly like your normal tory party at the moment is it.

But over 2000% profit in just over 5 years is unusual. Most sensible people, even Buffet, would have taken the money and sat on it with where the world economy is heading.

Some more poor economical data to be released today which will wake people up to the situation on top of the poor employment figures released yesterday.

Today looks like it could be the start of the major decline.

The FTSE 100 rising yesterday was again puzzling to say the least.

A good read. The belief seems to be there from some MP's, now we just need the government to invest in Hydrogen.

Lets hope they have some billions left after Covid-19 and Brexit. That is my fear that they will have to be careful with the cash.

What a time to have a bafoon of a PM in charge.

A good read anyway.........

https://www.h2-view.com/story/jacob-young-hydrogen-is-a-crucial-part-of-the-uks-green-economy-recovery/

The wider market news is only going to get worse when the furlough scheme ends.

So many will be wanting to protect cash during these uncertain times hence I believe the mass sell off is going to greatly affect all shares.

You have to be realistic.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53733440