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Spot on Tonearm, exactly why I never filter, I like to hear both sides and as I have said, the long term future for hydrogen is a no brainer.
Whilst everyone is singing the praises of battery power for private light goods vehicles, the sensible know that Hydrogen is the future based on re-fuling times, and just as flat screen TV's came down in price as volume increased, so will the cost of Hydrogen cars.
I believe we will see duel power cars, battery for short journeys, with a Hydrogen tank for longer journeys.
It's the short term due to external factors where we can all make a bit more by not being lazy investors.
It's so easy just to take your view on the long term, but I don't want to be one of those investors who in the next few months wishes he had taken notice of the short term to make even more.
The worst case scenario for me is if I have to eat my words and buy back in above 322p , then I will have missed out on some additional profit. Personally I would rather that than losing profit I already had.
As it stands today this share with its all over the place price has not given me any stress. I could buy back in tomorrow if I wished and if the long term is as I suspect the gamble would have paid off.
For me at the moment the gamble is still on , with no stress. I have 60p of headroom to play with moment and I think that headroom will grow further this week.
Good luck everyone whatever your current position.
With around 60p shaved off the SP in just over a week and with Covid-19 spiralling out of control ,even with all the measures put in place over the summer, it is now looking more and more likely by the end of the week we could see a national lockdown by the end of the week to coincide with the UK school holidays.
Johnson is running out of time to save further economic disaster so must act quickly now. He just dithers too much.
We could easily see the SP drop to 200p by Friday.
Let's see what tomorrow brings.
1LEO........... that will depend on contracts ITM secure, at 175p it's worth a gamble that things come good.
At the moment it's not about where it goes in the future, but not paying too much for where it is now, and circa 260 is way over the top for the punt that it is in what is becoming a market with some other more well established players in it as far as contracts secured go.
Yes Seaangler, I know I have ruffled a few feathers on here, just as I have on other boards over the years when I post alternative views that people don't like to hear.
These boards are here for sharing views and it's amazing how those who don't like to hear a differing view turn to childish behaviour and insults, that only leads to one thing, more things they don't like hearing.
Less childish behaviour, less insults, equals less posts of what they don't like to hear.
Their choice.
You miss the point Seaangler. Never has the future of Hydrogen been in doubt, and yes ITM will be part of that future, but at today's SP it is way over valued, of will be some time where it is anywhere near worth it current market cap, like when it has £ 500 million or contacts in the bag and looking at its current ability to win work in a competitive market that is going to be some years away.
I have in recent weeks looked for the shares that are far more realistically priced to take advantage of the future of Hydrogen and have taken positions in AFC, Powerhouse and Velocys. I am looking for the companies that have the chance to make 1000 - 2000 % plus profits over the next 5 years.
I have never been so certain about a share being so way overpriced as ITM is at the present and I stick with it falling back into the range of 150 -175p inside the next couple of months. That is when I will see it as a value share for the speculative punt that it still is.
Investing on hype is a very dangerous game and that is exactly what has happened here at ITM the last 12 months. I admit I got caught up in it a bit but saw the green light to get out before it ends in tears and major loss of profit.
What has actually happened here since Linde took its major stake at 40p , nothing positive if you take into account a major reverse in turnover, cash burn increasing and a reported major loss of over £ 3 million on one of its flagship commercial contacts.
Since it's trading up date in 2019 where it was declared that ITM had a tender pipeline of over £ 400 million it's trading update of June 2020 confirmed that very little of that had been won.
Since it's 2020 update there has been very little news on new contract wins or finalisation of contacts under negotiation and also that matter of Dr Cooley off loading over £ 6 million of shares and another £ 5 million from other directors.
Since that last trading update we have had one RNS regarding an association with the Scotland hydrogen project, but with no financial information about it. That was about as much use as a chocolate fire guard.
Since the last trading update Dr Cooley has been pumping out loads of news about Hydrogen, yet none of it involves ITM, you have to ask yourself why.
Yes, it's very dangerous to invest on the back of hype, as many will find here especially those of the last three months who are now showing a loss on their investment here.
I would imagine the penny will drop soon and those holding on to the 12 month profits and beyond will start to review and protect those profits now. The gamble is how will those profits be affected by the soon to be released final results, they will need something really positive in them especially as Sheffield has today gone into tier three Covid-19 restrictions which will not be good news for people and businesses in the area.
Time to be very cautious.
Toneman.......I am highly honoured with my award of nerd of the week.
I have had a busy day at work ( yes I do still work in answer to an earlier question somewhere ) so will put my feet up and and celebrate with a glass of Deanstone single malt.
I am far from a nerd as it is no secret to my friend circle that I am not socially awkward being the life and soul of any party, infact I am a party animal.
Anyway, another award to add to the many. Let's see what award I get by the end of the year. I am hoping for investor of the year, no less.
I am well known for my sense of humour too, you have to have a good one to get involved on these boards.
Have a good evening everyone, and congratulations to anyone who took the chance to get out in recent weeks above 300p, very wise as you will see as soon as next month, certainly by December 31st.
Sub 200p now looking likely by first week in November.
Unemployment fall out from Covid-19 will make the news
Likely that the UK will be back in a full lockdown by then with Covid-19 spiralling out of control.
Then there is the reality of the accounts set in stone which based on the last trading update and lack of substantial news since regarding contracts under negotiation and the tender pipeline are likely to look lack luster.
We will also get an update on the losses for the Shell contact, let's hope they haven't got any worse
Sometimes an investment board nerds a reality check.
I hope I am wrong for those just sitting on the paper profits at the moment, but I fear not sadly.
Tysonfury..,.........A clever move by Linde.
When the next funding round is needed it will probably be the ideal opportunity to get the company on the cheap as that time will come when the world economies are on their knees as Covid-19 continues to inflict it's wounds.
Cooley won't
I think its probably heading towards the reality week this week with the full fall out end of next week.
Looking at what has happened in Wales today, the likelihood is England will follow if Johnson wants to keep his job a little bit longer.
Brexit is looking more and more like a disastrous no deal. No powerful economy would choose WTO terms as it's favoured way of trading, yet Johnson is talking it up as the EU remains firm on not giving the UK a deal equal to what it has thrown away for no payment.
The grave mistakes this government has made over Covid-19 early on, the results are now being seen, can only be resolved for the better by further restrictions, ultimately another full lockdown, which ultimately means a severe effect on our economy.
All these factors are going to cause a major sell off, even the companies with good long term prospects , people need their cash both to protect profit and to live on as millions are now out of work.
The government seem to be looking at wind power and nuclear to get us to zero carbon by 2050. More emphasis seems to be put on Electric vehicles for private transport, I guess the reality is that Hydrogen cars are going to be out of the reach of the masses price wise.
ITM's future is dependent on the government here realising excess wind and solar can be used to make hydrogen to balance the gas grid or even provide 100% Hydrogen in the gas grid in the future with the network currently being upgraded to plastic pipes to enable that.
Sadly with all that is going on at the moment there will be no cash for the government to invest in Hydrogen as it uses all available cash to save the economy in general as well as individuals.
A good government would have latched on to the prospect of Hydrogen when many of us did here over five years ago.
Private investment will eventually see the likes of ITM through to its full potential, but not at today's over inflated price. The reality is the 40p that Linde paid for its 20% share a year ago was at a premium, today's price is just way off the mark as it is based on a £ 500 million turnover based on making a £ 50 million profit. That is the reality and it doesn't look like that will happen for years yet.
I still believe that 175p is not unrealistic by year end. Not long to wait to see.
Just waiting for the no deal Brexit bombshell to drop and then I will mopping up early 2021.
A little bit more patience, then it will be bargain time and batten down the hatches for a couple of years in what I believe will still be choppy waters, but you will get a bang for your wonga .
Bellers, that is a great idea.
What way up do you plant the conkers, shiny side down I am guessing. How to long do they take to germinate.
Most interesting post on here of late.
My stance hasn't changed. Still will look to buy back in when around 175p which I think is more likely than my target at the other end of 400p off the back of an order book that needs to be £ 500 million to warrant anywhere near the current SP.
I don't think the soon to be announced final results will have much impact especially if the losses on the Shell project has increased. I would like an update on that before parting with my cash.
We know the company had circa £ 26 million of contracts in the bag and another £ 30 +million under negotiation, I am surprised we have had no update on those.
I also wish to see how much of that £ 250 + million of good tenders has progressed, not very well is my guess as we would have heard something by now. I am guessing the current world uncertainty over Covid-19 is still having great impact and will do possiblity for the next few years as we see exactly what unfolds in regards to this virus.
Personally I don't think there is going to be much positive progress since the last trading update due to how quiet ITM have been since it.
Dr Cooley nearly everyday pumps out general news about Hydrogen on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn , but where is all the ITM specific news ?
Our government has not done the UK stock market any favours the this year. With two months to go we still don't know what Brexit is, this is shocking.
They have mucked up big time over Covid-19 and without doubt we are heading for another national lock down which we should already be in according to the science they are supposed to be following.
How can anyone have any confidence to invest in speculative investments which ITM is.
Look at all the positive news about Hydrogen access Europe yet most Hydrogen shares have taken a dive.
If and it's a big if Johnson and his cronies throw money at Hydrogen, it won't be a lot, they need all the cash to cope with Covid-19.
Starmer has taken a calculated gamble this week, and a good one. If Johnson U turns on a national lock down him and his government are sunk and that alone is going to have averse affect on the markets and bring down many good shares because like me a few months back people will need the security of cash and with two year holders here sitting on 1000% life changing profits they will want to protect them and I think we see that starting to happen today across the wider market before the bloodbath in November, and it's going to be some bloodbath.
This virus is winning hands down against the most useless tory government ever
This is now a much higher risk share than it was in January.
It's easy to fall too much in love with a share. I got very lucky with it and the last few months since I jumped off the see saw my stress levels have been nil.
I saw I was being misse
Way2L8...... on my holiday now. Back in a couple of weeks.
Go back and read it around the end of next month, it might make more sense to you by then.
You will be thinking where did he get the crystal ball from ;-)
BuilderPete.......... to equate ITM to the likes of Apple, Amazon and Tesla.
All of those companies were unique and you can include eBay amongst them.
ITM is a cog in a very big, and competitive wheel.
They are always going to be at risk of being swallowed up by the likes of Shell or BP if those companies need the technology.
Hydrogen is still in its infancy and ITM is a strong contender in the market without doubt, but it does not command the current SP, why do you think the directors sold out £ 11 million at £ 2.84?.......because they knew they were onto a good thing.
Maybe if they bought a few million back at today's level ITM might gain some trust back from investors.
There is no point in throwing profit away when it's pretty obvious that there is a general market bloodbath on the horizon.
I do believe ITM has a future either on its own or from a takeover, but its over priced right now and I am 100% confident we will see the price retract back to a fairer price. I will start getting excited again at 175p or 400p with a full order book.
I am happy with the 2000%+ profit I have made so far and protected and I don't mind missing out on a bit of profit if the 400p proposition happens.
As it stands at the moment its best to be protecting your cash. I guess I am lucky to have probably found one of the best performing shares of the last five years along with a few others to be able to keep pretty much out of the market.
I certainly found the Tesla of Hydrogen in ITM the last five years. Sometimes you just have to look at things more carefully when uncertainty looms for all stock.
This worldwide recession is going to be like nothing in our lifetime, Covid-19 is a total unknown, I am basing my decisions on a worse case scenario of no viable vaccine for at least two years or more which is more than a probable outcome if you do your research. No vaccine has ever been found for a Coronavirus, and that includes the common cold where they have up after about 40 years of trying.
Sadly we have a useless government that nobody trusts in a world that is strapped for cash as it tries to get on top of Covid-19.
Look at the massive money the EU have said they are pumping into Hydrogen, yet NEL have gone backwards since that announcement as have other EU Hydrogen related businesses.
Let that tell you something here. The SP is priced way into the future. At the current SP the company needs to making over £ 50 million per annum. Currently it's turnover for its last trading year is under £ 5 million with a cash burn of £ 17 million not helped by a loss making major contract.
It's years off the current SP, and with us leaving the EU will now be relying on a cash strapped UK government for grants or investment because the EU ones will have dried up.
Leaving the EU and the sad and unexpected arrival of Covid-19 has totally made ITM more speculative than ever.
That made me chuckle 1LEO.
You seriously believe one poster on a bulleting board can change the course of an SP?
It is markets and the company itself that dictates price movement.
If ITM suddenly announced it had secured £ 200 million of those tenders in the pipeline, that would soon prick a lot of ears up including mine.
The last trading update was one that spelled caution. It hadn't won many of the £ 400 million it shouted about in the 2019 trading update, its turnover was well down even taking into account of Covid-19, it has been affected by the ongoing severity of Covid-19, its largest contract to date is making losses in excess of £ 3 million and soon after the directors cashed in £ 11 million of shares at £ 2.83. They are home and dry, whilst all other investors are at great risk.
If that doesn't make you realise that a little caution should not go a miss, then good luck.
In the meantime since I started posting my cautionary notes at the moment it was wise to post it. Nobody who has bought in for the first time since my caution is making profit and those that have held longer have lost a fair bit of profit. One investor here declared he held 100,000 shares, at the current time he has given away close to £ 80,000 and its going to be more.
You have to look at what is going on in the wider market. This is coming from someone who in my earlier days got a bit carried away and didn't listen to other people's caution when I should have.
My views are not to say everyone should follow me but to just be cautious. Watch the wider market here in the UK and wider. As we saw in March that can impact even the good shares.
There is worse to come in the world than what happened in March. History has a habit of repeating itself, a second wave is normally worse and our government have already come to the conclusion the next six months is going to be bumpy in many respects.
We don't normally get this much advance warning. Make use of it to your advantage, that is my take on it.
Bilboburger...... I have never tried to be clever with my posts as some suggest.
Sometimes you need to introduce a bit of caution on these boards at times.
Yes I changed my mind from my early posts, but with good reason as we are now seeing.
I was very fortunate to get away with my punt from five years back and it honestly broke my heart to temporality cash in on ITM, nobody could have forseen what this year has brought. Nobody could have forseen Johnson going back on a deal he won an election on, that could be more catastrophic than Covid-19.
Two major tests to the market that nobody can be positive about at the moment. For the moment the best security is cash. Period.