Member Info for psmith64

First, all the slating I have received from this BB , not once have I disssd the long term future of ITM.

The news re SNAM today is far more exciting than the Linde investment 12 months ago having researched their newsflow the last 12 months.

All that said, I still think their will be a better entry point in the not too distant future.

I will hold my hands up after reading up about SNAM today that my 175p point may now be optimistic, but not out of the question until we know a little more about how Covid-19 unfolds over the next month because that does not make good reading at the moment and it does have the ability to change stock markets and business and individuals need for cash. It could mean people needing to access cash even though they don't want to sell, it's no good holding shares if you have lost your job and you need to eat and keep a roof over your head. This is the major risk to world stock at the moment and there is no getting away from the fact that will have the ability to drag good shares down.

In the UK we have the unknown of Brexit to deal with at the moment.

I won't therefore be looking for a long term investment here until we see what next month brings.

If not 175p , circa 235p is a possibility after today's news.

Big news today, but not a big rise, still a lot of caution out there for reasons already mentioned.

I think we will be able to buy in for less than 235p sometime in November.

Agree Castlepaul13, as well as cashing in major profits earlier in the year after holding for 5 years, I have also day traded ITM a lot since March.

Not ready yet for another long term holding as I think therd is still a better entry point down to wider market forces which will become more apparent over the next month as the real scale of Covid-19 unfolds further and the UK leaves the EU on far less favourable terms than it had as a member.

After this morning's market reaction it's looks like there is time to ponder.

A lot of positives in today's RNS's but equally a lot of negative too.

Personally I am going to continue to watch from the sidelines as I still think come November there will be a lot of external forces coming out of the woodwork that will affect all companies regardless of their positions.

Even after all of today's announcements 175p is not off the table yet, 235p a real probability, why pay more than the what the last major share holder's are willing to pay.

The EU is severely in debt due to Covid-19, it's about to lose one of its largest contributers to the pot , we don't know how Covid-19 is going to continue to pan out but it doesn't look good to be honest.

Overall good news, but 300p + is now a long way off and today's fund raise does show how Hydrogen hype got the better of the market.

One thing I do know is that I am not going to risk as much in ITM going forward but will continue to diversify in much better value H2 shares such as AFC, Powerhouse and Velocys. I think they have a much better chance of gains over the coming 5 years just as ITM did the last 5 years.

Good luck everyone.

Porsche918, I have been saying for months that the current SP is way overpriced and am expecting further falls to circa 175p.

Covid-19 aside which is affecting the wider market, a market capitalisation of £ 1.2 billion for ITM with where it is at the moment is just too top heavy.

Very little news specific to ITM the last 12 months that justified a hike to 365p, it just got caught up in the H2 hype.

Even with all the prospects in the EU, the European H2 shares have taken a dive in recent months.

Long term you will get your money back and more for sure if ITM can start pulling in the contracts, and get the prices right.

It's reading these articles like those below that keeps my interest in Hydrogen for the long term.

It's just a shame this pandemic has hampered things and given us all a take advantage of a drop in the future SP due to investors wanting to protect cash.

Yes I am taking a gamble on the general situation affecting world economies, the worst is yet to come I believe.

That's the excitement of stock market investment, taking a gamble now and again.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/features/hydrogen-cars-explained-technology-targeting-fuel-cell-future

I wouldn't disagree with that, but the next couple of months is the most important SP prediction for anyone looking to invest or re-invest.

Nobody likes paying over the odds for anything, no matter what the long term is.

Spot on Tonearm, exactly why I never filter, I like to hear both sides and as I have said, the long term future for hydrogen is a no brainer.

Whilst everyone is singing the praises of battery power for private light goods vehicles, the sensible know that Hydrogen is the future based on re-fuling times, and just as flat screen TV's came down in price as volume increased, so will the cost of Hydrogen cars.

I believe we will see duel power cars, battery for short journeys, with a Hydrogen tank for longer journeys.

It's the short term due to external factors where we can all make a bit more by not being lazy investors.

It's so easy just to take your view on the long term, but I don't want to be one of those investors who in the next few months wishes he had taken notice of the short term to make even more.

The worst case scenario for me is if I have to eat my words and buy back in above 322p , then I will have missed out on some additional profit. Personally I would rather that than losing profit I already had.

As it stands today this share with its all over the place price has not given me any stress. I could buy back in tomorrow if I wished and if the long term is as I suspect the gamble would have paid off.

For me at the moment the gamble is still on , with no stress. I have 60p of headroom to play with moment and I think that headroom will grow further this week.

Good luck everyone whatever your current position.

With around 60p shaved off the SP in just over a week and with Covid-19 spiralling out of control ,even with all the measures put in place over the summer, it is now looking more and more likely by the end of the week we could see a national lockdown by the end of the week to coincide with the UK school holidays.

Johnson is running out of time to save further economic disaster so must act quickly now. He just dithers too much.

We could easily see the SP drop to 200p by Friday.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

1LEO........... that will depend on contracts ITM secure, at 175p it's worth a gamble that things come good.

At the moment it's not about where it goes in the future, but not paying too much for where it is now, and circa 260 is way over the top for the punt that it is in what is becoming a market with some other more well established players in it as far as contracts secured go.

Yes Seaangler, I know I have ruffled a few feathers on here, just as I have on other boards over the years when I post alternative views that people don't like to hear.

These boards are here for sharing views and it's amazing how those who don't like to hear a differing view turn to childish behaviour and insults, that only leads to one thing, more things they don't like hearing.

Less childish behaviour, less insults, equals less posts of what they don't like to hear.

Their choice.

You miss the point Seaangler. Never has the future of Hydrogen been in doubt, and yes ITM will be part of that future, but at today's SP it is way over valued, of will be some time where it is anywhere near worth it current market cap, like when it has £ 500 million or contacts in the bag and looking at its current ability to win work in a competitive market that is going to be some years away.

I have in recent weeks looked for the shares that are far more realistically priced to take advantage of the future of Hydrogen and have taken positions in AFC, Powerhouse and Velocys. I am looking for the companies that have the chance to make 1000 - 2000 % plus profits over the next 5 years.

I have never been so certain about a share being so way overpriced as ITM is at the present and I stick with it falling back into the range of 150 -175p inside the next couple of months. That is when I will see it as a value share for the speculative punt that it still is.

Investing on hype is a very dangerous game and that is exactly what has happened here at ITM the last 12 months. I admit I got caught up in it a bit but saw the green light to get out before it ends in tears and major loss of profit.

What has actually happened here since Linde took its major stake at 40p , nothing positive if you take into account a major reverse in turnover, cash burn increasing and a reported major loss of over £ 3 million on one of its flagship commercial contacts.

Since it's trading up date in 2019 where it was declared that ITM had a tender pipeline of over £ 400 million it's trading update of June 2020 confirmed that very little of that had been won.

Since it's 2020 update there has been very little news on new contract wins or finalisation of contacts under negotiation and also that matter of Dr Cooley off loading over £ 6 million of shares and another £ 5 million from other directors.

Since that last trading update we have had one RNS regarding an association with the Scotland hydrogen project, but with no financial information about it. That was about as much use as a chocolate fire guard.

Since the last trading update Dr Cooley has been pumping out loads of news about Hydrogen, yet none of it involves ITM, you have to ask yourself why.

Yes, it's very dangerous to invest on the back of hype, as many will find here especially those of the last three months who are now showing a loss on their investment here.

I would imagine the penny will drop soon and those holding on to the 12 month profits and beyond will start to review and protect those profits now. The gamble is how will those profits be affected by the soon to be released final results, they will need something really positive in them especially as Sheffield has today gone into tier three Covid-19 restrictions which will not be good news for people and businesses in the area.

Time to be very cautious.

Toneman.......I am highly honoured with my award of nerd of the week.

I have had a busy day at work ( yes I do still work in answer to an earlier question somewhere ) so will put my feet up and and celebrate with a glass of Deanstone single malt.

I am far from a nerd as it is no secret to my friend circle that I am not socially awkward being the life and soul of any party, infact I am a party animal.

Anyway, another award to add to the many. Let's see what award I get by the end of the year. I am hoping for investor of the year, no less.

I am well known for my sense of humour too, you have to have a good one to get involved on these boards.

Have a good evening everyone, and congratulations to anyone who took the chance to get out in recent weeks above 300p, very wise as you will see as soon as next month, certainly by December 31st.

Sub 200p now looking likely by first week in November.

Unemployment fall out from Covid-19 will make the news

Likely that the UK will be back in a full lockdown by then with Covid-19 spiralling out of control.

Then there is the reality of the accounts set in stone which based on the last trading update and lack of substantial news since regarding contracts under negotiation and the tender pipeline are likely to look lack luster.

We will also get an update on the losses for the Shell contact, let's hope they haven't got any worse

Sometimes an investment board nerds a reality check.

I hope I am wrong for those just sitting on the paper profits at the moment, but I fear not sadly.

Pushed the send too early. ........

Dr Cooley won't care much, he had his mega payday back in June, a very wise man all things considered.

Tysonfury..,.........A clever move by Linde.

When the next funding round is needed it will probably be the ideal opportunity to get the company on the cheap as that time will come when the world economies are on their knees as Covid-19 continues to inflict it's wounds.

Cooley won't

I think its probably heading towards the reality week this week with the full fall out end of next week.

Looking at what has happened in Wales today, the likelihood is England will follow if Johnson wants to keep his job a little bit longer.

Brexit is looking more and more like a disastrous no deal. No powerful economy would choose WTO terms as it's favoured way of trading, yet Johnson is talking it up as the EU remains firm on not giving the UK a deal equal to what it has thrown away for no payment.

The grave mistakes this government has made over Covid-19 early on, the results are now being seen, can only be resolved for the better by further restrictions, ultimately another full lockdown, which ultimately means a severe effect on our economy.

All these factors are going to cause a major sell off, even the companies with good long term prospects , people need their cash both to protect profit and to live on as millions are now out of work.

The government seem to be looking at wind power and nuclear to get us to zero carbon by 2050. More emphasis seems to be put on Electric vehicles for private transport, I guess the reality is that Hydrogen cars are going to be out of the reach of the masses price wise.

ITM's future is dependent on the government here realising excess wind and solar can be used to make hydrogen to balance the gas grid or even provide 100% Hydrogen in the gas grid in the future with the network currently being upgraded to plastic pipes to enable that.

Sadly with all that is going on at the moment there will be no cash for the government to invest in Hydrogen as it uses all available cash to save the economy in general as well as individuals.

A good government would have latched on to the prospect of Hydrogen when many of us did here over five years ago.

Private investment will eventually see the likes of ITM through to its full potential, but not at today's over inflated price. The reality is the 40p that Linde paid for its 20% share a year ago was at a premium, today's price is just way off the mark as it is based on a £ 500 million turnover based on making a £ 50 million profit. That is the reality and it doesn't look like that will happen for years yet.

I still believe that 175p is not unrealistic by year end. Not long to wait to see.

Just waiting for the no deal Brexit bombshell to drop and then I will mopping up early 2021.

A little bit more patience, then it will be bargain time and batten down the hatches for a couple of years in what I believe will still be choppy waters, but you will get a bang for your wonga .

Must have run out of characters....... that last sentence should have read.........

I saw I was being missed so thought I better write something.