The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
No Seaangler it's called knowing when something is too good to be true.
When I invested in ITM back in 2015 I was thinking that 100% was possible if all goes well, it was always a let's review in 5 years time share for me, I nearly hit the sell button at 150p .
I suppose yes, I was a bit greedy by letting it ride to 2000%+ , common sense told me that couldn't last and seeing the drop when Covid-19 came along spooked me a bit I have to admit.
I don't think it is greed to buy back in at 175p when that situation arises, common sense with the possibilities if the gamble pays off.
I certainly won't be aiming for the same type of position Ihad before, that would be greedy to think the same could happen twice.
350p is certainly possible sometime in the future if Hydrogen does progress as hoped, but it would need a £ 500 million order book to justify that price, all possible, but equally not possible.
That is the fun of investing, trying to predict the future right long and short term.
I am pretty confident of the short term, time will tell.
When Johnson resigns in the spring, that will cause more uncertainty on top of all the other existing uncertainty.
Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock.
Watch this space.
Don't forget greed is the downfall of many, I have been there when I thought I knew better than others.
DYOR........ deep research beyond the share. Sure the long term has the possibility of good potential, but their is still risk no matter what major investors have thrown cash in the pot.
We have no cash generation yet with ITM, everything is based on a maybe, based on the adoption of Hydrogen on a major scale. You don't actually need Hydrogen to get to zero carbon, zero carbon has been achieved in energy production by other long established methods which also benefit from solar and wind such as ground source heat pumps which many local authorities have been installing for years, we now have Tesla batteries for storage of surplus energy production.
I have seen millions thrown into AIM companies in the past, and got sucked in off the back of it ,I am £ 11,000 down on that adventure with one share, I didn't listen to the other investors on that board and who advised against the company, Investors Chronicle even recommended the share on occasion when it was over 100% infront.
Greed has the ability to cloud judgement.
I still put my name to 175p as being a realistic possibility to things well outside the control of any of us in these very unusual investment times.
1LEO......... there has to be a balanced view.
This is a high risk speculative share.
Somebody has to add some balance.
This share was still being pumped at 365p by the same people, look at it now ?
Enough said. I am not here to be liked by all, I am entitled to share my view and hopefully my view has saved some heartache somewhere.
I stick with my prediction, ,175p is a real possibility once all the bailout money stops.
The government have u turned, it was supposed to have stopped on 31st October, my prediction was based on that.
The government have moved the goal posts. You may laugh at my prediction now, but you won't when the bailout money stops and we know what the real fall out is.
No capita gains at all Seaangler, all my shares are held in ISA's and SIPP's , both mine and my wifes.
Been very lucky to have held tax free savings in the envelope of PEP's in the early days to ISA's today.
When I start to draw on my pension I will certainly keep my tax in the low tax band combining tax free income from my ISA's
Seaangler, this is not about timing the market, although I have been lucky of late, it's about just using common sense at the moment and not focussing on hype.
It's so easy to lose touch with reality when you let hype take over.
Yes there is no doubt that Hydrogen could be massive by 2050 buy who knows what might come along in 30 years time.
Remember in 1985 CD's were the big thing of music ? Now thanks to music coming out of thin air now 35 years later they are worthless.
Hydrogen produced via nuclear energy could kill off electrolysis by 2050 or battery storage from wind and solar could progress so much over the next 10 years the need for hydrogen in the mix could be obselete and once again the hype around Hydrogen dies the death again.
The last six years for those that took the gamble may never be repeated. Over 2000% and cashed in has never happened for me personally in the 34 years I have been investing, I still have to pinch myself four months on to make sure it wasn't a dream, then I look at the bank balance and all the things we have bought for the home the last few months, it's real.
Good luck Seaangler, I hope you do call it right, it's good feeling when you do.
Not special Bilbs, just using the common sense approach.
Sometimes the markets reach a point of shall we put it all on red or black, but that nagging doubt of that big green zero is always there and nobody wins unless of course your cash is off the table and still piled up in front of you.
We are in times of major uncertainty like we have never seen before, I don't gamble when the outcome is stacked way to far against you.
That was a busy day, finally just caught up on the days news and read some of the comments here.
Not quite the day I thought it would be , but the longer the government keep bailing out everybody, the longer it delays the inevitable, they can't keep doing it forever.
There will be no cash left for investment in the green future, it's not an endless pit.
We still have..........
Major unemployment when the bailouts stop
Major bankruptcies looming especially in the services, leisure and hospitality sectors and non essential retail.
Then the big one......... Brexit.
Then we have the SP of ITM. The swings are rediculous. How can anyone trust a SP that swings so much, it needs to find some stability before it can be taken seriously.
We need to assess the outcome for the economy once all the government support stops, it's giving many a false sense of security.
The whole thing is like high stakes gamble on the roulette wheel.
I stick with my projection of 175p as the point where I will start to get interested again with the potential that it could fall further.
Alternatively I don't mind missing out on a bit of profit and waiting for some stability in a 300p+ price with a full order book, that could well be a couple of years off.
By that time my investment will probably be smaller as I hoover up FTSE 100 bargains in 2021, the likes of Taylor Wimpey dipping to 50p has to be a possibility, NEXT sub 4000p again, Whitbread 1500p
The bloodbath might have been delayed another month or two, but it's coming of that I am certain.
I am keeping my cash on the sidelines on the whole for the moment.
Good luck everyone, don't get caught out, it will be an overnight thing.
I have learned my lesson in the past, paper profits look fantastic, but they are meaningless until you convert them to cash.
One last thing. Dr Cooley has known about the last deal for 12 months as it was coming along, yet he took his life changing profit at 283p, a very wise man I would say.
Green43........ Smith ? You a headmaster talking to the naughty boy ? :-)
Bit busy hanging some art on the walls at the moment, just broke off for a bite to eat and catch up on the days news, when I got my feet up this evening I will respond.
But in the meantime there is going to be a much better entry point, the short term is now where a lot of future money will be made.
This along with many other shares will tank on Monday, it's a case of where will it bottom out , 100p is not off the table and my thought of 175p a few months back is now very realistic.
Research nowadays has to go deeper than the share itself, it was medical and scientific research on Covid-19 that spooked me back in June, it predicted what we see how was a very real possibility.
I was spooked enough to sell out 90% of all my stock holdings and sit with cash.
I am glad I did that now, this latest lockdown is going to wipe billions off the markets on Monday and we are in for months of uncertainty now, and that is without knowing the consequences of Brexit yet which could be equally catostrophic.
The stock market is massively more of a gamble than its ever been with many companies at risk of running out of cash.
One thing is for certain 2021 is going to be the year of picking up bargains at some stage.
Prepare for the meltdown next week..........
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8898985/Boris-Johnson-announce-national-coronavirus-lockdown-WEEK-save-Christmas.html
You obviously have not read the latest research coming out of Imperial College tonearm, antibodies are not lasting long term and people are starting to get reinfected, herd immunity is therefore looking very unlikely.
Coronavirus has the same base as the common cold which still today is a major drain on the economy hence they tried for decades to try and find a vaccine at the common cold research unit in Salisbury, Wiltshire, backed by scientists from one of our top disease lab's at PHE Porton Down.
I will continue to air on the side of caution and see what unfolds with regards to a vaccine.
Covid-19 has made investment a lot more complex over the medium and short term, it's not just about researching companies anymore but the wider medical issues and of course on top of that the other economic factors of a no deal Brexit which not only will crucify our economy further but the wider EU economy too which could bring under pressure spending on Hydrogen.
I have always been a risk taker, but there is too many unknowns at the moment to be a risk taker. It's the first time in my life I have been more cautious for the moment.
I think we need to see what unfolds over the next 12 months before we can take full on risks because there are going to be some great buying opportunities over the coming 12 - 24 months in my view which sadly will means those remaining in the market are going to lose cash and future opportunity.
That's my take on it all and at the moment I don't have to stress over the seesaws of which ITM is a classic example especially when I had as much as I had invested.
Somebody on here a few months back declared they had 100,000 shares, well they have kisses goodbye to £ 100 K the last few months and seen it bounce around like a ball in-between.
That is not for me at the moment. I hope it comes back good for that person on the board over time which it will, but exactly when we see ITM hit 350p again is very difficult to predict at the moment, the drop being the easiest to predict , again in my view.
Good luck to everyone remaining fully invested, you are braver than me at the moment.
I don't think so tonearm.
I also see through the spin regarding the vaccine.
It is very unlikely we will see a vaccine for Covid-19 anytime soon, but governments around the world have to pump out the optimism to prevent a nuclear reaction to the world stock markets.
You have to be a realist, 35 years on and still no vaccine for the HIV virus, Covid-19 is no less complex than HIV and we have the bonus of knowing that a vaccine has never been found for any Coronavirus , they gave up on the four Coronaviruses for the common cold after years of research.
The worst is yet to come in 2021 when it becomes evident just how long term Covid-19 is, and the long term effect it's going to have on world economies.
Cash is going to be king for a while in my view, especially as we have one of the worst governments in power, ever.
You can blame Johnson 100% over what is going to happen to today in the continuation of the bloodbath.
It was him as PM that gave me confidence to make the predictions I made back in June.
I just don't know what his agenda is but singlehandedly he had added years to your average persons retirement date.
A scan through the news this morning, 100p really is now not out of the question, I won't be buying back in at 175p now or 150p, both my fill or kill orders now adjusted to 100p, the short term to medium term is now very rocky thanks to our useless government.
Even with all the abuse I have suffered on this board, I am glad I didn't let that drive me away, I am.glad I didn't listen to the majority and continued to go with my gut feeling.
There is a place for all views on these boards for to have a very one sided view can be extremely dangerous.
Don't worry taskmaster, it will be polluting less than your mates Bentley.
It's my 20 year old classic that does very few miles nowadays, just 62,000 miles over it's entire life, it's probably polluted less than you cars over the period.
And troublesome you conveniently forget to mention those that gloated when the SP rose to 313p in recent times when I was on my holidays, I didn't even bite.
You are all just as bad, you just can't accept another persons view, you only want to hear your story.
Well investment works both ways. If I had listened to your view I would be thousands out of pocket now.
As it pans out today my view from three months ago is totally valid for the reasons stated back then, the unknowns of Brexit and the likely second wave of Covid-19 and all the uncertainty in the wider market that could potentially cause.
No this is not gloating, it's a reminder that those posts were made with good intention of people not throwing profit away.
Yes Seaangler, until some posters were not able to accept an alternative view and it all got childish, yes it was pretty much on topic around here.
It always happens on these BB's when people only want to hear their side of the story.
It's a shame really, and all the blame gets put on the side of the poster with the differing view when the others are as much to blame for their incitement through their abuse and childish behaviour.
Oh well, nevermind. I am all for getting along with people , shame not everyone has the same attitude, things would be a lot more calmer and friendly.
That option is there if the childish behaviour stops, that is in the hands of those that need to grow up.