Member Info for Proselenes

An oil discovery at Snow Leopard to the magnitude of pre-drill estimates of 90 MMBO is worth about 30p to 60p a share to MATD.

An oil discovery at Wild Horse to the magnitude of pre-drill estimates of circa 450MMBO is worth 150p to 300p a share to MATD.

There is magnificent upside potential here, but its high risk in case of a duster. High Risk / High Reward.

Wild Horse-1 every man and his dog wants to be in MATD for that drill, but believe you me they want the price of MATD as low as possible before they buy in. So many are just waiting and hoping that Snow Leopard-1 fails so they can buy cheap on a duster for the Wild Horse-1 drill.

However, dont let the negative people detract from the potential uplift from Snow Leopard-1, it will multi-bag MATD if it comes in.......and if not, then sit back and wait for Wild-Horse-1.

I made up the below.

If drilling is 70 days as per the RNS then they just poked the upside yesterday (day 39 of 70).

If drilling is 50 days as per the past presentations then they just poked the main target yesterday.

Either way day 39 was a key day on either a 50 or 70 day schedule

http://oi63.tinypic.com/t62ct2.jpg

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Early production is planned for any finds in Blocks IV and V. As per the presentation slide below in the link. All by close by trucking routes.........depending on size of finds they may later invest in a pipeline.

http://oi65.tinypic.com/jb1qv8.jpg

.If they discover oil in Blocks IV and V I would expect 2 of the smaller drills in XX to be scrapped, to concentrate more on IV and V.

I am quite sure it is SHELL.

However the non disclosure will be there to protect Shell in the event of no deal. Quite simply if Shell walked away and then later say Chevron came in and drilled with BPC and discovered 28 billion barrels then Shell would look very stupid indeed.

So its there to protect the Super Major.

However, the longer this goes on I see it as the more valuable the deal is...........the Super Major will want maximum due diligence done if it is to sign off on a lot of money to BPC.

I am expecting something along the lines of :

BPC retain 30% of the license. Shell become operator with 70%
BPC will get 3 free carried wells (to testing)
BPC will get 30M cash for backcosts.

That would, imo, value BPC around 15p to 20p a share post deal............and when drilling gets close expect BPC to trade up to around 70p a share on excitement and expectation.

And success of SL-1 immediately derisks around 500 million barrels in other leads around it.

What that says (in the best case) is if SL-1 finds 90 million barrels, worth around 60p a share with 100% stake, then immediately derisked is 500 million barrels worth around 325p a share.

And thats just SL-1 without moving on to then WH-1, where the potential 480 million barrels, if proven, would derisk an immediate additional 750 million barrels in close leads around it.

As ever..........failure is very possible, so its high risk........but the rewards are just massive IF, and its a big IF, SL-1 or WH-1 strike recoverable oil.

And between Blocks IV (where WH-1 will drill) and Block V (where SL-1 is being drilled) there is presently the potential for over 2 billion barrels of recoverable oil with all the leads and prospects.

Thats why BG were very excited about it.

A good day.

Yes, Snow Leopard-1 (SL-1) and Wild Horse-1 (WH-1) are on different blocks (IV and V) and success or failure at one is not relevant to the other.

What I say is remember, BG (prior to be purchased by Shell) were very hot on blocks IV and V. They saw this area of Mongolia to potentially be the last remaining big onshore oil field to be found by drilling. The BG technical team reviewed all the data (and the BG team were good) and they farmed into Blocks IV and V.

It ended when Shell purchased BG and rationalized the portfolio, eliminating Mongolia among many other countries that saw the prior BG work ended.

But that does not take away from the work BG did and how excited they were to drill into Blocks IV and V.

What is amazing with MATD is most people have forgotten that, and now you have MATD drilling with 100% ownership.

Yes, with Wildcat drilling its more likely to be a duster than an oil discovery, but the upside on any oil discovery is massive. Its high risk high reward.

SL-1 oil discovery of around 90 MMBP recoverable is worth around 60p a share. They intend to farm out, so take off 50% and you should see 30p a share.

WH-1, well, if that one strikes its worth about 300p a share..........so again halve that and target 150p a share.

Early production is planned for any oil find............they will truck across the border to China. In the event that very large discoveries are made they will then plan for investment in a pipeline, but for very quick and early production they will simply truck it over the border.

So everything is in place..............just need to get lucky and strike some oil with either SL-1 or WH-1.

And even if both of them fail, there are another 4 fully funded drills to go - the great advantage of starting a 6 well fully funded drilling campaign.........lots of back up in the event of failures.........

Based on what happened on MATD with their farm out (big volume spike, price rise - statement about price movement and then farm out 3 weeks later in 2015) I am expecting news for BPC in week 31.

30th July to 3rd August.

That is ideal time for a deal done RNS based on what occurred with MATD in a similar situation in the past.

And there is a new thread on ADVFN with all the info in the header.

http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=42945975

Broker note, video's etc....

Worth watching the Oil Capital Conference video from March again...........

Also, dont forget that Blocks 4 and 5 were the ones that BG were very interested in and farmed into. Thats a big endorsement of the potential that a large oil company like BG were willing to farm in. Yes, when Shell purchased BG and scrapped exploration that BG had planned in many countries (including Mongolia) the farm out ended, but do not overlook the fact that BG were happy with the Technical side and willing to go for drilling. Now, its those same Blocks 4 and 5 being drilled with Snow Leopard and Wild Horse - but now 100% MATD owned.

Snow Leopard has major upside apart from the stated 90million barrel targets.

The price is weak as there is still an overhang from the first placing at 7.5p earlier this year........there are holders from there who planned to sell for a 50% profit into spud, but who got caught out with the second fund raise at 10p to add the 2 extra drills in early 2019.

As with any overhang, nobody knows when the seller will stop, but when they do the price will move up rapidly......just a case of filling your boots with cheap stock now :)

Edison Note Link : https://nofile.io/f/j90GYESdoet/MATD.pdf

I have built a position around the 9p level and looking forward to the months ahead.

Now it starts.........

I did a top slice yesterday. Left it so that my remaining large holding can be sold for 0.5p a share and it will mean my initial investment is covered. So bad news will now have no negative effect whilst good will have a tremendous positive effect.

The RNS today does state that they are still working on the technical evaluation, and that has to be concluded before the commercial can be done. So based on that RNS I would assume that there could be at least a months extension now, to allow time for the technical to be concluded and then a commercial agreement concluded.

Hopefully it will be concluded earlier and with a positive outcome.

The reason it shows as 5p is the last trade was a trade of 1 share at 5p and end of auction. Thats why its showing as last trade 5p.

Normally a trade of 1 share is a signal from one MM to the others that they are short of stock (sold more than they got hold of) and need more shares.

Lets see tomorrow morning what happens.

Some chunky buys around, always shows when the MM's spike the price up and let it fall back....but the price trend is upwards.

Just loosening up stock at the best prices they can buy from people will to sell.

Looking strong for news next week or the week after if the normal chunky buys followed by news around 7 to 10 days later happens again.

Alternate link, you can download Shore Capital write up on BPC from the below. HTTPS://we.tl/UYpZJGIaG0 The above is WeTransfer - no pop ups. .

Just purchased another chunk at 307p and now hold over 11% according to this mornings announcement. So we have, Gazprom have paid 307p for chunk. Seneal paid 377p for a massive chunk. Hanberg have said they may make an offer at over 300p (which could be 301p or 600p or whatever) and purchased a large chunk at just under 300p. So its a 3 way fight now - and I cannot see anything less than 400p a share being the final price - to the upside it could go near double that if the bidders are so inclined.

This is comment on another company, but if EXI's 2P were valued at 3.4US$ per barrel that would make the take over price around 680p a share. As I have said, a bidding war could see a really nice final offer price. "........DAVY VIEW Almost unnoticed, there has been a steady flow of deals completed during the year related to Russian E&P assets and companies. The latest one is a cash offer for Alliance Oil, a large Swedish stock with a fully integrated oil business in Russia. Stripping out the upstream element implies attractive multiples for Russian oil and gas barrels. A read-through to Petroneft suggests possible material upside from current price levels. Metric of recent Alliance bid An existing shareholder holding 43.9% in Alliance has made a cash offer of SEK60 per share to acquire the remaining shares in the group. The deal value is $3.9bn on an EV basis, equivalent to 4.9x historic EBITDA. Alliance is a fully integrated producer of oil and gas with both upstream and downstream assets. Assuming all EV dollars are equal, splitting out upstream and downstream EBITDA suggests the offer values the 733m barrels of 2P reserves at $2.54bn or $3.4 per 2P barrel......."

Think you'll find first time I said it LRL looked dodgy as it was being over ramped it was over 20p - and look where it is now. No production - no production cash coming in - cash flow negative - so burning cash all the time is LRL

The issue here is they had 9p a share of cash (pending taking off of further spending since the period of reporting ending) but they have no production assets - so they have no production income - so each month that passes and salaries and admin costs are taken into account, their cash per share value keeps falling. But - if they do of course find some blue sky jam tomorrow project to get involved in (like offshore drilling) - then they will need to raise cash. And if they issue lots more shares at a low value then that 9p a share gets diluted down very quickly. So without production assets producing positive cash flow every month the "9p a share" of cash means very little - and the share price can easily fall well below this "value", as it is in the process of doing now - and of course, they have spent more money on drilling and testing since the end of the reporting period - so 9p is not 9p now, its likely quite a step lower.