Member Info for Proselenes

FreoDocker...........are you aware of the issues with Block XX ?

There are very good reasons to relinquish Block XX if they strike at Block IV or V.

I know what the reasons are. If you dont, you need to research MATD a lot more.

Victor,

There are 6 rigs in the blocks adjacent to Block XX and availability is said to be no issue. I think MB has time to wait for SL-1 results before pulling the trigger on the rig contract for Block XX, if that is what he wants to do......

If they pull out of Block XX drilling, then they have money for 3 appraisal wells at Block V (Snow Leopard) or at Wild Horse-1 as well if that strikes.

Of the 6 wells the present plan is :

2 for Block V (SL-1 and Fox-1)
1 for Block IV (WH-1)
3 for Block XX

Remove the 3 for Block XX and you can do a lot on any oil strikes in IV and V - which would add exponentially to the farm in value on any oil strike.

Anyway, just me thinking outside the box.

If you think out of the box for a minute............

Block V with a discovery at Snow Leopard-1 is worth XXXXXXX to a farm in partner.

Block V with a discovery and an appraisal well (plus Fox-1 to be drilled early next year) is worth exponentially more to MATD.

I did raise a question a week or so ago about maybe they will scrap the Block XX drilling if they strike at Snow Leopard-1.

The reason is that an appraisal at Block V is worth so much more to MATD than Block XX is.

Farm in partners dont care one jot about Block XX. BG farmed into Block Iv and V and were not interested in Block XX.

So - IF they strike at Snow Leopard-1, would it be so impossible they will scrap the Block XX drilling and go all out to appraise Snow Leopard and add lots more value to a farm in deal.

I think this scenario deserves some thinking..................especially when you consider Block XX still has some issues. If you don't know what the issues are I suggest you research more.

So perhaps MB is delaying the rig contract for Block XX until he knows for sure or not whether SL-1 is an oil discovery or a duster...................

Something to think about anyway, even if it ends up not being the case.

Maybe the money would be better spent on an appraisal well at Snow Leopard...if they have struck oil. Planned into Q2 2019.

If Block V and Snow Leopard strikes oil...........maybe they relinquish block XX and concentrate on their oil discovery ? if they have one...........

Mess around with 30 MMBO or use the money to appraise up to 700 MMBO around Snow Leopard ? I know what I would do.........and Block XX would be gone on any oil strike in Block IV or V.

Lots of ways of looking at it.

As I expected, volume is dropping off now.

Those who want to sell have sold.

Those who have purchased have done so in the most.

Nobody knows if its oily or dusty.............just a case of waiting now..........unless there is a big volume spike of say 20 million shares or more on a single day.

No point in Risked values................. are we at 62p now ? Nope............they serve no purpose. Its all about the unrisked value on an oil strike. You either have oil or not.......... so its zero or the unrisked value :)

And of course, Edison are not accounting for the derisking of other prospects..........if we strike oil then they will be added in and the unrisked values will rise and rise........... thats the way it works :)

Mmmmmmmmmmmm ok....I will play the game.

Unrisked for 90MMBO recoverable 100% owned at Snow Leopard.........circa 60p a share. If its less barrels its lower share price, if its more barrels its a higher share price.

But it derisks about 500 million to 700 million recoverable barrels just around Snow Leopard....so thats worth a lot more.

Enjoy :)

Below pic link shows the potential upside from the Shallow Turbidites.......... two of the upsides starred along with the two main target zones.

img src="http://oi63.tinypic.com/xdt5d3.jpg

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If i were to make a pure guess of progress so far based on share price movements and volumes since spud I would guess that :

Shallow Turbitides - Oil shows, positive implications for up to 200MMBO of upside in the area surrounding SL-1. But nothing significant at the SL location as the drill is not located to test these at their best (thickest area and most likely area) it simply goes through a thin area of them on the way to the SL targets.

Upper small SL target - nothing of interest.

Potential Upside Zone of SL - something of significant interest.

Main SL target zone - the next volume spike will tell - provided the company has not managed to do a complete comms lockdown, in which case there will be no major volume until the drilling result RNS comes out.

I am in no way suggesting that is what has happened, just a pure guesstimate based on 15 seconds on analyzing a chart from 10th July to yesterday alongside the SL info below :) :) LOL

http://i63.tinypic.com/jfyhag.jpg

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Be interesting now if volume drips away during the rest of the week. At day 52 of drilling tomorrow then anybody wanting to be out before results should be out by now and same way those wanting to be in and holding for results should be in.

News can be literally any day and any time now so final positions of people should be pretty much in place.

I believe they need a drilling permit AND a technical permit. The technical permit is the one that has been foreseen as a bit of risk to get it in time.

If they drill (and they could) with just the drilling permit and no technical permit they are in breach of the PSC, and so they have to wait for the technical permit to be issued. AFAIK.

I am wondering if the rig contract for XX is being held up by the technical permit ? They need the technical permit before they can drill at XX and so until they have that they cannot sign a rig contract. Obviously they have the permits for IV and V but the final remaining technical permit was outstanding for Block XX.

So I am guessing that they are still waiting for the XX technical permit before they can sign the rig contract. Still got time as rig mobilization will be quick to XX. A question for Mike Buck to answer, or one that will be answered soon in an Operations Update.

A big spread also means the MM's have no clue as well............they dont want to get caught short of stock and also they dont want to be holding loads........they will be as nervous as everyone else........easy way around is to put a large spread on and then deal well inside the spread.

Ojay, nothing will be certain until the well is logged.

So even an early leak of positive signs will only encourage so much, as in the end it might be water. You dont know until the well is logged and formation fluid samples are taken.

So early positive signs would only encourage only so much..........not endless buying, more like speculative positions being taken. That would be my take.

And if the company saw that something had leaked then for sure there would be a comms clampdown.

2010PM.

Looks positive to me, I have read the crossed version as well. So it looks like UK based Chairman and AGM in London next year. This will make MATD much more attractive for Institutional buying.

A reminder for everyone.............. the source place for this info should not be advertised, don't let it out. Make sure that access remains and the best way to do so is to use the information wisely and not let on that access is there.

:)

Shorters cannot start a big volume spike, they will be scared of getting caught short on any good news with an overexposed position.

And MATD could release news any day, any time now.

Similarly lots of longs, like me, could buy more, but then we are also in 2 minds, do you buy more now or do you wait for a duster and buy more. The simple option is to wait, if its good news you will not care about not buying more as waht you have already will rise very well, if its bad news then you are fine to add more at a lower price ahead of WH-1.

So this is why the share price is just flapping in the wind, up and down.

Massive 20m volume or more spike and that will show news is coming and something has leaked, until then its just a waiting game.

It maybe something leaked earlier when that 20m volume day happened and the 16% rise.........so they clamped down on all comms access ?

Volume remains low. Which is good as it means its a tight hole and no news is leaking out. The area it is in there is no mobile signal, only satphone.

And satphone access will be restricted, so a good chance that MB can run a tighthole on this one, which will be good for reputation moving forward if he can.

Any big volume spike of around 20 million shares or more will be if/when news leaks.

Well, I am holding all the way through for good or bad as they are fully funded for 5 more drills after this so....why not.

I expect results next week, a Monday morning RNS.

If its not good then I expect a Friday RNS this week.

Lets see..................

MATD is not listed on Frankfurt.........its a false market in effect. It has no semblance of importance in any way to the actual FTSE AIM listing.