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On a deal I still reckon somewhere around 10p to 20p and then prior to the spud of the first well then circa 70p.

(this is where there is an RNS about a rig contract for Block XX now and the shorters now say thats negative for SL-1...........LOL)

:)

The lack of a rig tender for Block XX could even be construed as positive for Snow Leopard-1.

If you had very positive signs from SL-1 would you not cancel the Block XX drill for now and use those funds on an appraisal well in SL-1 block where, perhaps, SL-1 has struck oil ?

SL-1 if it strikes oil will derisk HALF A BILLION barrels of prospects in other areas of that block.......so why drill XX for 13 million barrels when you can then, derisked, go after a 150 million barrel target near SL-1...........

Price action today suggests now the MM's have a level book and any buying is going to keep pushing the price up....no sellers around.

Yes....was an LNG plant that Shell won the bid for, not a refinery.

Dont know Mr P.

I think 60 days of drilling..........and so not going to be there next week. Others think 50 days. Only time will tell.

Shell were talking to BPC in January......thats known.

Shell have recently won a bid to build a refinery in the Bahamas and also moving their trading office there.

Precursor for a good relationship with the Bahamas government, given their "activity" there recently and the known fact they were talking to BPC in January leads most people to think it is indeed Shell who are the Super Major.

tdante77777 - yes for now. That attack is over.

They will also be out at the moment as there is the potential for news next week or the week after ( as another 1 month is finished ).

Volume dropped, will be the same tomorrow as its a long weekend ahead with bank holiday Monday.

Things should ramp right back up on Tuesday morning across a lot of stocks.

Volume dropped, will be the same tomorrow as its a long weekend ahead with bank holiday Monday.

Things should ramp right back up on Tuesday morning across a lot of stocks.

Fontier drilling actually has over a 30% success rate, far ahead of actual quoted COS.

This is because its frontier wildcat drilling, so the COS quoted is always going to be low based on a lack of into.

The fact that frontier wildcat drilling success rate is over 30% all shows that in this scenario quoted percentages mean very little..........

And to educate you on the stock market........a lot of these short term shorting gangs do their shorting via spread bets.

So the spread bet company simply sells long stock to cover short positions.

For reporting, this just shows up as nothing.......as its not borrowed stock, its long holders stock that is being used against them to short.

:)

Neptunes, we are not talking about someone taking a big short...........we are talking a pack of short term traders all selling some............no individual goes above the reporting level, but between them they can throw out enough to cause sharp drops and panic selling by holders.

Its not nonsense, you will find it happens a lot.

Yes, the spud RNS announcement clearly states drilling operations up to 70 days, and also that a separate test rig will be bought in for any testing of oil finds.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/petro-matad-ltd--matd-/rns/spud-of-the-snow-leopard-1-well/201807100700030704U/

They could be slightly higher up....its all guesswork at the moment. The reason for the volume surge could be that they hit something in the Potential Upside area and that prompted them to put out notice that they need the test rig. That kind of info is difficult to keep inside.

I put a post on the BPC thread this morning with a photo.........watching both stocks it seems to be there is concerted shorting going on. They are being forced down together at times and when one breaks, so does the other. Would make sense for a shorting pack to highlight a few shares with the potential for the same holders to be in.........easier to panic them into selling if they see a few stocks in their portfolio falling, or get hit with margin pressure if they are using short term muck like spread betting.

As I have been watching both its becoming apparent that there is a band of shorters and short term traders playing with both BPC and MATD together (whilst they both await big news in the low volume easy to spike and trough holiday month of August).

Both appear to rise and fall together - as stock is hard sold to force the down and then purchased back to rise it back.

Also makes sense as with people with cross holdings in both, if you short both in concert then those with short term margin positions (and yes, many mugs still use spread bets due to the so called saving on tax, even though they often lose far more due to the manipulated nature of spread betting) are put under double pressure to close their positions, helping out your shorts.

Very interesting - the good news is that September is not far away, back to normal trading volumes for stocks as buyers return.

http://i64.tinypic.com/v4v0ht.jpg

Pic in the link above shows the recent price movements........the massive upswing causing shorts to close in both stocks, now being reopened I guess...................

As I have been watching both its becoming apparent that there is a band of shorters and short term traders playing with both BPC and MATD together (whilst they both await big news in the low volume easy to spike and trough holiday month of August).

Both appear to rise and fall together - as stock is hard sold to force the down and then purchased back to rise it back.

Also makes sense as with people with cross holdings in both, if you short both in concert then those with short term margin positions (and yes, many mugs still use spread bets due to the so called saving on tax, even though they often lose far more due to the manipulated nature of spread betting) are put under double pressure to close their positions, helping out your shorts.

Very interesting - the good news is that September is not far away, back to normal trading volumes for stocks as buyers return.

http://i64.tinypic.com/v4v0ht.jpg

Pic in the link above shows the recent price movements........the massive upswing causing shorts to close in both stocks, now being reopened I guess.

Funny old world when people think that Human imposed lines on maps making country borders has any effect on geology from millions of years. The fact that BG were so interested in Blocks IV and V is because its highly likely the same as all those producing fields in similar geology not far away.....now yes, its in a different country called China, but as I said, geology does not do lines drawn on a map by humans to mark country borders.You would not believe what you read on some boards...its as if there is magic wall underground and it stopped any oil from going into Mongolia as its not called China.

So if we take the map in the link below:

http://oi63.tinypic.com/29nf3bl.jpg

And take into account that Blocks IV and V are "Potential Basin Opening Drills" .... do we think that there are a few potential brand new oil basins to be found in area's of Mongolia........ BG certainly did..........and so do many people.

Yes, we all know frontier wildcat drilling is high risk, but when it comes to potential reward, if you strike oil and open up a complete new oil basin, there is hundreds of millions and potentially billions of barrels of oil at play - and MATD here at the moment is 100% owning their blocks.

And with a commercial strategy in place (which is quick short term to truck any oil to China on the already existing trucking routes for sale there and only invest in a pipeline depending on how big any finds are - and also to farm out any finds with interested parties)..its all very exciting.

Could be totally wrong, but my estimate on 70 days will be TD around 60 days, and my guesstimate of where we are now on day 46 is as below :

http://oi64.tinypic.com/9uu8p4.jpg

.

Well, all things considered the positive (rampy pampy) opinion I take from the volume spike would be.

Company planned original drill time of 50 days.

Once the rig contract was signed and the RNS of spud was announced it was changed to 70 days. Maybe the rig they have got on contract is older and less efficient than they planned to get based on the 50 days schedule.

My chart of drilling time based on 70 days would show that last week they poked the Potential Upside.

http://oi63.tinypic.com/t62ct2.jpg

Therefore, I will go with 70 days, they poked the Potential upside last week, had some positive signs and put out the request for the test rig.

That request for the test rig will have been seen by many and perhaps the reason for the sudden buying. Would you class that as worthy of an RNS. Well, not really, they will not have the full log data, they cannot say if net pay has been found, just a need for the test rig.

So with the rose tinted specs on thats my take on it, and it may be totally wrong.

If that is the case then they wont be into the Main Target until around day 60 or so........so watch for volumes as we get to around 7th of September onwards......

Its all a guess, but what I will go with for now. So I am not expecting news until around 14th September onwards.

Some references to Blocks IV and V in the below article.

HTTPS://www.geoexpro.com/articles/2015/01/mongolia-potential-in-an-emerging-economy

Its why BG were so interested in Blocks IV and V and farmed in. Although these are Wildcat wells in Blocks IV and V with Snow Leopard and Wild Horse.........they are Basin Opening Plays.

If they strike oil, it means big big upside in the other targets and prospects in the blocks - and potential, as it says on the tin........Basin Opening.