Well, that Friday buying spree might also mean an RNS this morning about Red Deer and having some oil in it.
Again, Mike would not commit to anything until it has been flow tested by the testing rig if they have oil shows and net oil pay.
But to have some oil shows at Red Deer would be massive massive news for MATD.
I was looking at SOCO news releases.......2 of their commercial wells flow tested at 70 bopd after frac and the other at 120 bopd.
So whilst the expectation is 200 bopd for any well after its been fracked, its still very commercial at much lower rates.
And hopefully, with better reservoir the further south and west you go, the Heron-1 well might be able to beat those SOCO figures, and by some margin, fingers crossed.
Anyway, Heron-1 news on flow testing is for later....this week is about any oil or not at Red Deer-1 location.
...........INDIVIDUAL WELL RESULTS
Well 19-20 was drilled to a total depth ("TD") of 2,410 meters encountering good oil shows in the Tsagaantsav formation. The well was completed in this formation and fracture stimulated, which resulted in an initial production rate of approximately 70 barrels of oil per day ("BOPD").
Well 19-21 encountered good oil shows in the Zuunbayan and the Tsagaantsav while drilling to a TD of 2,625 meters. The well was completed in the Zuunbayan formation with an initial production rate of approximately 120 BOPD.....
Ed Story, President and Chief Executive of SOCO, commented: "The success of our exploratory drilling program in Mongolia this year increases our confidence in the reserve potential of the Tamtsag Basin. We will integrate the technical data from this year's drilling program to improve our understanding of the highly prospective but complex area." .......
I believe the assumed flow rate after fracture stimulation for any Block XX North, Block XX South and Block V well is 200 bopd.
So with 200 bopd after fracture stimulation as the target, its is going to be very interesting to see what flow rates Heron-1 can do naturally.........and then if needed, after a fracture stimulation.
All being well we will know before the end of September.
Hope everyone enjoyed reading the below. Shows at this stage that MATD are ahead of SOCO in what SOCO found - and all the SOCO wells that had oil shows went on to be producing wells, which became the current PetroChina producing field.
Strangely when SOCO said they had oil shows, were bringing in a test rig to flow test (as you damage formation doing it after drilling with standard rig), and then had to perform fracture stimulation to get flows.......their share price did not fall.
The interesting thing here is going to be, can MATD get good commercial flow rates without the fracture stimulation ? Given the reservoir is better quality.
The market currently is pricing in that the Heron-1 well will not flow - its a duster. However, that is very very far from the truth and just down to basic stupidity (and perhaps a little bit of trust issues given the past management and DT drills).....ok.....more the trust....... :)
Its not flow tested yet.........how can the market assign value to Heron-1 when its not known if commercial or not. Once its flow tested and proven commercial.........then it has value..........then its worth a big boost to the share price.
Same with Red Deer-1........if that strikes oil there will be a rise........but the big rerating will not occur until its flow tested and proven commercial.
Patience................all you need...........wait..............
At this juncture, if I compare what SOCO had in Mongolia (SOCO sold the producing field to PetroChina who currently own it) - it seems we have better reservoir than SOCO found.
Heron-1 has found more gross potential oil pay/net oil pay than a lot of the SOCO producing wells found.
Read through the SOCO news releases......and expect similar from MATD in the coming months and years as they take Block XX into becoming the next producing field in Mongolia with the Heron discovery.
Enjoy.......given what SOCO found, what MATD have found with Heron-1 - its looking very rosy for Heron !!!!!!
Based on the interview.
Heron-1 flow test results should be before end of September.
Red Deer-1 drilling results next week.
Red Deer-1 flow test (if oil found) likely mid October.
Gazelle-1 spud before end of September
Gazelle-1 drill results before end of October.
What still amuses me is that Mike has said nothing in the Heron-1 result is worse than pre drill estimates..... Significantly we are 5 metres higher ( so better as larger size) and reservoir is better quality.
Mike has even said they might flow well without stimulation.... As all Petrochina Wells are stimulated in the North.
He is in effect saying, for me, Heron will be bigger than Pmean 25 MMBO recoverable and should flow better than Petrochina Wells to the North.
But some people are selling this......its weird..... When the result is so far better than pre r drill estimate what more can you want... Lolol
He did sound quite upbeat.........and as everything so far is as per pre drill prognosis........ might be the 2nd MATD Oil Strike coming next week.
I would guess TD/logging at the weekend and news mid to late next week for Red Deer-1
DNO looking to buy North Sea development and production assets...
PetroChina wells produce on average at up to 200 bopd. These are all pumped wells.
It will be interesting to see the flow rates from Heron-1, will they match the 200 bopd of the PetroChina wells ? or will it be better than that given the better porosity and permeability ?
From 13 minutes 10 seconds in for MATD.
Also if you take the 2 key upsides from what Mike has said :
Heron-1 reservoir appears to have better porosity than pre-drill estimates.
Heron-1 pay zones were encountered 5 meters shallower than pre-drill estimates.
Better porosity means the whole structure can contain more oil - higher porosity means more oil inside.
5 meters shallower means over the structure there is more oil bearing reservoir potential at the boundaries.
Those 2 key things mean that Heron may well be over 40 MMBO recoverable in size, not the Pmean estimate pre-drill of 25 MMBO.
The other key thing was permeability was better than expected, that should mean flow is not an issue and the reservoir will be able to produce at higher rates than the PetroChina wells to the North.
We know that reservoir properties get better as you go West....looks like they also get better as you go South. Gazelle is further West, and Red Deer-1 is South-West of Heron.