Member Info for Proselenes

First things first. There will be no flow test, no oil will be produced. At most, imo, they will do a mini-DST test - which takes fluid samples (a small amount).

Secondly, one well will not give you 1 billion barrels, or 500 million, or 100 million. Once you have made a discovery, then you need to appraise it........with lots of appraisal drills gradually moving away from the discovery well to prove up that you might have 100 million, or 200 million, or 300 million......lots and lots of appraisal wells. If you want a case study look at Rockhopper and the flow tests and then appraisal wells they did.

All that will happen with BPC is they will strike oil, or not. Whats there, how big, how small, can it flow etc... will all remain unproven until lots of appraisal wells and full flow testing is done.

A technical success.......discover some oil and potential net pay.........share price might go to 5p and then fall back to 4p.

A very good technical success........potentially lots of net pay confirmed by wireline logging and mini-DST of fluids....... share price might go to 7p and then fall back to 4p.

A disaster.......no oil at all..........share price falls to 0.5p before recovering to 1p.

Thats my view on the valuation potential here.

All IMO, DYOR !!

Exactly Irene...........the ramping will be getting more and more now.........simply as they want to sell some or all before the drill results come out.

If you notice the rampers now have 2 lines of attack.

If BPC raise more funds, its because they have struck oil and need more money for more work at the well.

If BPC dont raise more funds, its because they have stuck oil and so will wait for later to raise money at higher share price.

LOL........rampers..........bless them.......

The only sure thing is........ DONT BELIEVE ANY RUMOURS spouted on bulletin boards designed to influence trading.

Wait for the official RNS after wireline logging and any fluid sampling has been done.

Simples........

Key takeaway 1b.

From LWD you cannot know if you have struck hydrocarbons, until you take a formation fluid sample. That is done at the end with Wireline logging. Refer to the DES (Desire) 'oil to water" fiasco.......where they claimed oil strike from LWD only to find it was formation water from a fluid sample on wireline logging a few days later.

Brent at 56$ now.

They should be now making over 1 million dollars per month now, from oil sales in the old southwest area, with the oil price at 56$ a barrel.

Thats based on them getting over 25$ per barrel after royalties and opex.

Coho-1 online soon to add to that.

Stock ended red...down.

So they were sells then..........

One has to suspect that the CLN take of 3m GBP is being short sold now while they can.......and they will convert the CLN at 2p a share to clear the short.

Another potential 5m CLN draw down mid January.......so there will be another few hundred million shares to be sold off..........

This is going to hover around 2.3p all the way to drilling results......... in my opinion.

All IMO, DYOR !!

Indeed, I have never sold BPC at a loss in the past 10 years.

It was one of the easiest shares to make money on....buy low.....wait for the latest "story" to come out.......spike.......sell.

Wait for it to collapse again.........rinse and repeat.

Its the rampers excuse Irene.

The level of ramping on BPC is going through the roof............... there will likely be rumours of oil samples being taken by helicopter to the USA before too long. The rampers will try to sucker people into buying BPC with false rumours and stories most likely in the days and weeks ahead............

Starchild, your point 1.

Have you not grasped that BPC will be producing NO OIL from this well. They do not have a production license and just told everyone in the last RNS that if this drill is a technical success.....they will extend the license into the next EXPLORATION term. Under exploration terms there is NO PRODUCTION. So the price of Brent or your "back of the boat" whatever......is not a valid point at all.

Starchild

RE: post relevant news hereToday 14:30

Relevant news:

1. Brent PoO now $55+ (rate used for off-shore Bahamas, as any will be 'off the back of a boat' and can be sold anywhere)

Latest Canada short position.

724,352 short (-36K since last update a couple of weeks ago).

They must be hurting........

$TXP.TO TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION INC. 724,352 (-36,167) 7 Jan 2021

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Short term I see :

News blackout of Basin Floor Fan and Shelf updates. This being due to the ongoing bidding for new license areas.

The news blackout suggests that PANR might be bidding to expand the Alkaid and Talitha Units.

Bidding ends today (7th Jan 4pm Alaska time), so from tomorrow onwards there is no reason to hold back news on the two missing upgrades/updates.

The rumored USA marketing push, obviously would not happen whilst news is held back due to the bidding process being active.

So, with rig news, spud news, Basin and Shelf updates to come and a Webinar (and also potential news on the bidding round results and any new add ons on the 14th Jan UK time)......its going to be a very active few weeks now......the silent period is over and if the USA marketing push happens to get US investors onboard with PANR, the share price might start to pick up in the coming weeks.

All IMO, DYOR !!

My valuation is simple.

Greater Alkaid
?Confirmed Oil Discovery with 35+deg API oil
?Contingent Resource 76.5 MMBO recoverable

76 million barrels x 4$/barrel valuation = 304m US$ or 222m GBP

Current market cap is 250m GBP.

So the whole of the Talitha project (Circa 1.2 billion barrels potential) and all the upside from Alkaid, and also the other leads.......are all in currently for 28m GBP.

PANR share price should be around 60p to 70p currently imo.

And as had been said, each of those 4 zones at Talitha, if proven, are worth around 60p each to the share price in the event of a discovery only (on the basis of 300m barrels each zone at 1.5$/barrel valuation post discovery)

Its going to to be fun ahead.

If, just for fun for the top upside, they all come in you could value :

Alkaid 76m barrels @ 4$/barrel = 40p a share (excluding all upside)
Talitha SMD 300m barrels @ 1.5S/barrel post discovery = 60p a share (exc.upside)
Talitha Kuparuk 300m barrels @ 1.5S/barrel post discovery = 60p a share (exc.upside)
Talitha Slope 300m barrels @ 1.5S/barrel post discovery = 60p a share (exc.upside)
Talitha Basin 300m barrels @ 1.5S/barrel post discovery = 60p a share (exc.upside)

So......

If all four zones were to come in, thats 280p a share using well discounted values and with Theta West and Leonis and any upside all in for free.

Michael Spencer is no fool - and he has a large holding in PANR. The upside is staggering, the story is compelling, the risk is there but the ride will be fun.

Personally, I am holding all the way though to Alkaid drilling later this year. If Talitha-A all four zones fail, so be it........buy a load more cheap after and then on to Alkaid.

If Talitha-A comes in good - excellent - share price over 150p for sure.......

Risk is high - but not too high. Its a decent risk/reward ratio imo given the back up of Alkaid.

Looks to me like CANA or someone is taking Canada sells to fill a big London buyer.

Running out of sellers in Canada at the moment, which mean they might put a big spike on upwards tomorrow morning in London and then drip it down during the day......get some more weak hands to sell out.

Look.

PANR raised 30 million dollars in one go, in a placing, oversubscribed, to fund the upcoming likely biggest well in the world in 2021 at Talitha......spudding soon.

Why has BPC never been able to raise the money in a placing ? Why do big instis not want to give them money easily ? Ask yourselves why ? Why ? Why has BPC continually diluted and diluted and never able to raise the money in one hit ?????

Something to do with the asset being "not attractive" ? Something to do with the risk of "ever getting to production" ?

Why no Stenna drill for equity ? Why no farm in in 10 years ?

The risk here is astronomical in my opinion.......and that in my view is backed up by the lack of funding and using all sorts of bit and bobs to try to get enough money to pay for the drill.............

IMO, DYOR !!!

Methanex needs gas..........urgently........

One wonders if any TXP link up with LOL in their acreage might be sold to Methanex if it happened.........as the whole of Ortoire is going to the NGC.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/methanex-provides-trinidad-operations-131500633.html

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CarsCoffee........ For me, I think the biggest obstacle to a farm in remains that the production license is not "bolted on". The line that the government cannot "unreasonably withhold" a production license is still a big issue, especially now with the Tree Huggers going all out against further drilling. No farm in partner will come in, in my opinion, until its black and white that a production license "will be given without exception".

I think the biggest thing the rampers wont like is this line from todays RNS

,,,,,,,-- Depending on technical outcomes, renewal of licences in The Bahamas into a third exploration period (end of Q1 2021), followed by planning for future well activity, and farm-out considerations. .........

It confirms what I have been saying, at best the results of this well will be purely technical, there will be no flow testing with flaring over a period of time. There will be no declaration of commercial. There will be no move to a production license. It is clear the best outcome is a renewal of the "Exploration license" into the next term.

At best it seems they may only be able to do a "mini DST" which would collect some samples from the well bore......this is not a flow test. This is similar to what DES (Desire) did whey claimed from logging they had oil pay, only for the mini-DST samples to reveal it was formation water.....not oil (The whole DES oil to water fiasco).

So, for me it confirms the upside from this well result is very limited given the ongoing dilution. 4p ? 5p ? I believe all those dreaming of over 10p on "success" are going to be quite disappointed..........

Hopefully this ends the ramping talk of "production license" on this single well result. As I have said........any discovery needs many appraisal wells drilled and flow tests to confirm commerciality.

All IMO, DYOR !!

Tiburn.

NOTICE THE WORDING !!!!!!!!!! PEAK PRODUCTION.

Peak production is defined as the maximum achieved, no matter how long it was for. They could run at 500 BOPD for 5 minutes and that would be "Peak Production". Notice they later say "10% increase on average". Why did they not simply give an accurate "average bopd rate".

Yes Jdam. Notice........

Renewal of Exploration License !!!! Not what many liars on here have been posting. Also, as I have said many times, one well will give limited data. There will need to be many appraisal wells drilled (like RKH did for Sea Lion). The liars on here posting 700m barrels proven on 1 well.......it is just that. Ramping lies.

· Completion of the Perseverance #1 well in Q1 2021, and analysis of technical results.
· Depending on technical outcomes, renewal of licences in The Bahamas into a third exploration period (end of Q1 2021), followed by planning for future well activity, and farm-out considerations.