Member Info for Proselenes

See image in the link below.........TXP tweet

https://i.ibb.co/dMhwnQ6/TXP.jpg

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And for newbies..........there is generally 3 red days on bad news.

This is red day number 1.

Tomorrow should be another red day.

Wednesday may or may not be a red day, some stay level, some rise a bit, most fall for a 3rd successive day.

This is because lots of traders are now playing the falls and rises for a quick 5%. They aint interested in the share price beyond them taking a quick profit. So "waves of buying" also see later "waves of selling".

Remember how the rampers said hundred millions dollars spent, loads of 3D seismic.....best located well ever........all the signs of commercial oil................

Now they say "they may find a better location"................ LOLOLOL

Game over for the Bahamas. Its now 6 wells drilled, all had oil shows, none commercial. All the big boys walked away.

Now the issue is funding. Bills to pay for P1 drilling...........and then the problem of funding the 2021 workplan.........

Read what they said in the RNS, in my original post................ potential delay or deferral for Trinidad work !!!!

Stop listening to rampers !!!!!!!!!!

I posted very clearly this imo would be oil shows and NOT commercial - and so it came to pass.

And.........the warning in the 12th January 2021 RNS There is potentially massive dilution ahead.................

https://www.investegate.co.uk/bahamas-petroleum-co--bpc-/rns/funding-strategy--reconciliation---put-option/202101120700073153L/

...............In circumstances where neither the balance of the fixed-conversion price conditional convertible notes is available, nor the Call exercised, BPC would need to rely on seeking alternative funding if it was to be able to complete the full intended program of work for 2021 (most particularly in Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname). There can be no assurance that BPC would be successful in securing any such alternative funding, and if this were the case, the planned program of work in Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname might need to be curtailed or deferred...................................

0.5p looks to be the price target for many people.

Thoughts ?

So the next news is..........most likely..........given this warning on the 12th Jan...........how do they raise funds ? CLN ? Whats the funding plan now ?

Read the title of the post...................

Oil shows a given..............Commerciality is the question !!! Hope people read that and took it in.........and did not green box it out......... LOL

Now......dont forget the BIG FAT WARNING in the 12th January 2021 funding RNS.

They need the Call option or the CLN......or............

https://www.investegate.co.uk/bahamas-petroleum-co--bpc-/rns/funding-strategy--reconciliation---put-option/202101120700073153L/

..............In circumstances where neither the balance of the fixed-conversion price conditional convertible notes is available, nor the Call exercised, BPC would need to rely on seeking alternative funding if it was to be able to complete the full intended program of work for 2021 (most particularly in Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname). There can be no assurance that BPC would be successful in securing any such alternative funding, and if this were the case, the planned program of work in Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname might need to be curtailed or deferred............

You can appreciate why Paul wants to get drilling oil wells again in the SouthWest in Q4 2021.........

They make a lot of profit, little cash cows and things look good on the oil price front. An inventory of 200 drill locations to choose from.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-hedgefunds-focus-idUSKBN2A70IM

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minimil. No position at all, long or short. Just watching.

Timeline estimates for 2021.........thanks to Domus.

15th February - Coho construction start

27th February - Flow results Chinook + CascaduraDeep

15th April - Coho online

Late April - Spud Royston

Mid June - Royston TD reached/results

June/July - Flow result Royston

August - Spud Steelhead

Nov/Dec - Chin+Cas+CasDeep online

Nov/Dec - Oil well drilling in the South West

The P1 drilling results RNS is going to be very interesting. The detail is very important.

So far there have been 5 wells drilled in the Bahamas offshore and all 5 have struck oil, but not commercial oil.

That in itself is interesting, with 5 from 5 oil strikes yet nobody was interested in the licenses and let them lapse. You would have thought with a 100% record of hitting oil that there would be massive interest, but there is very much a lack of interest.

That lack of interest has been borne out with no farm out by BPC and the struggles of raising funding for drilling a well.

From all the reports I have read it seems to be that the thinking is the oil has migrated through this area and has left shows everywhere but with seal failures there may be no commercial accumulations of oil.

Which makes reading the P1 results RNS quite difficult for your average Joe not got a clue "its going to finish blue" kind of gambler/poster.

Nobody in my opinion wants to hear of "oil shows" and "net pay of a few meters".........thats not going to excite anyone imo. Rampers might try to pump it but thats about all.

Expectations ? 70 meters net pay ok ? 100 meters net pay ok ? What is the expecation of total net pay in meters for a commercial discovery ? and not just another tiny oil shows thats yet again not commercial like the 5 previous wells ?

Oultonmike, this is not investing imo, this is gambling...........a lot of people are gambling a lot of money on a 65% Chance of Failure well being drilled.

There will be oil imo.......no question.

Its commercial oil thats needed........not just oil shows, or a puddle of oil.

So yes, imo most here are not investing at all, they gambling with the 65% chance of losing a lot of their money.

Short position in Canada up 43,754 shares in the past 2 weeks, now at 752,334 total short.

$TXP.TO TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION INC. 752,334 43,754 5 Feb 2021

Probably them closing their new shorts on hearing of Coho approvals that caused the 6% rise in Canada on Friday. Expect the next update in 2 weeks to show a drop in shorts imo

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Page 23 gives a good write up on the Doubloon Saxon 1 well. This again points to "shows" but no commercial oil. Lack of sealing and migration through, leaving only traces, appears the significant risks..........for P1, imo.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-069/dds-069-m/REPORTS/69_M_CH_2.pdf

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Jim1556. The point is the scientific note about massive seal failure in the South West........as discovered from the Doubloon Saxon-1 well.

One could take a view that seal failure will be a large part of the risk for P1 well.

Indeed........all 5 previous wells found oil...........but no commercial oil.

This shows the location of those 5 failed wells drilled before. Notice location of Doubloon Saxon-1

https://i.ibb.co/kGRj5CG/LOCBPC.jpg

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The 1986 well "Doubloon Saxon-1" drilled by Tenneco pointed to :

Massive seal failures in the SW Bahamas........ and they dropped the licenses soon after.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/026481729390096B

......Abstract

A deep (> 6 km) well, the Doubloon Saxon 1 well, drilled in early 1986 on the Great Bahamas Bank, shows evidence of massive seal failure through tectonic and post-tectonic diagenetic alteration. Seal failure occurred through a hydrodynamically induced chemical alteration of a carbonate (limestone, dolomite)-evaporite (anhydrite, halite) sequence into a carbonate (dolomite and dedolomite) sequence. Evidence for this alteration includes a thick (3.5 km) fractured dolomite sequence interbedded with dedolomites. Fracture origins include solution collapse (of original evaporites as shown by anhydrite cement on fracture surfaces) and cavernous porosity, and by tectonic fracturing (a major reverse fault penetrated with > 1 km repeat). Additional evidence includes a temperature regression and geochemical anomalies above and below the proposed altered sequence. It is concluded that massive seal failure is a contributing factor in limiting the petroleum potential of portions of the south-western Bahamas Platform.............

Well, one has to remember.

Every well drilled in the Bahamas so far has hit oil - but NO COMMERCIAL oil.........

This is the key thing..........its pretty much a given that P1 will hit some oil, however........is it commercial ? or will it be another "technical" discovery that is "non-commercial" ??

Oil Exploration has been in The Bahamas since the 1940s

By STAFF / in National News / on Tuesday, 17 Jun 2014 01:46 PM

NASSAU, Bahamas… (June 17th 2014)…For the most part, the majority of people don’t realize that oil exploration has been licensed in the region and The Bahamas since the Second World War. Oil and gas companies carried out exploration activities from the mid-1940s through to the 2000s including wells in each decade through to the late 1980s. The major oil companies involved included: Esso (Exxon), Amoco, Tenneco, Texaco, Arco, BP and Shell. Five wells were ultimately drilled between 1944 -1986 and while companies encountered oil in each of the wells, none were deemed commercially viable, and with the declining oil prices of the time the licenses were allowed to expire and interest in The Bahamas as an oil producing nation, waned in favour of other, already established hydrocarbon areas..............

DCF model for 100MMCF and 200MMCF daily production in the link below (Excel).

Kindly provided by thebulll8 on ADVFN and hosted with their approval.

https://gofile.io/d/KKDMGe

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