Broker update on TXP30 Jan 2021 03:58
Beacon Securities Update
Touchstone Exploration Inc. (TXP-T, TXP-L) Catalysts On The Horizon January 29, 2021 Kirk Wilson, CFA (403) 819-5280 kwilson@beaconsecurities.ca
Event. As the end of January nears, investors are likely anticipating news on several fronts from Touchstone. Each of the events are important as the company continues to de-risk its Ortoire Block (80% WI) in Trinidad.
Chinook testing delayed a few days Cas Deep imminent. Issues related to Covid continue to affect operations as various pieces of the required gas testing equipment have been held up at customs. The result is that testing of Chinook will be delayed for 1-2 weeks.
Cas Deep testing still on schedule. Once the service rig has completed its work, the testing equipment can be moved back-and-forth between Chinook and Cas Deep such that results from Cas Deep should still come before the end of Q1/21. Expect a 3-test program of the Herrera sands at each of Chinook and Cas Deep. Road construction at Royston underway.
The next exploration well, which has the potential to be the largest yet (100-500 bcf possible), is nearing as the access road is being built now. Construction of the lease will follow, which should take ~30 days. So let’s say the first half of April for a spud. Tie-in of Coho still pending approval. Once TXP receives environmental approval from the ministry, which should come any day now, the company can begin the process of pipeline construction.
We continue to expect 1st production of natural gas by the end of Q1/21.
2022 forecasts. We are rolling out our 2022 estimates that includes 4 development wells at Cascadura/Chinook. This will be yet another major milestone as TXP moves away from only drilling higher risk exploration wells. We model an average of 19,000 boe/d, which compares to our expectation of 1,300 boe/d this quarter, and should generate FFO of more than double the capex.
Conclusion & Recommendation: TXP has several catalysts over the next few months that should continue to de-risk its nat gas exploration in Trinidad.
We maintain our Buy rating and our C$4.00 target price.