Placing worries ?23 Dec 2009 05:32
The company openly says cash is tight and so cuts a small interim dividend to save cash, yet the figures released show cash at 32m (but with borrowings up to record levels).
The Chairman throws the towel in, dumps all his stock, at the same time.
The company has committed to a recycling plant thats going to severely use up the cash.
Whilst H2 is always cash positive for CHNS, in general H1 severely uses cash in working cap (or you can fund it by bumping up your borrowings from the banks).
With cash being used to fund this recycling plant, and with the company openly saying cash is tight, would it not, looking forward, suggest to people that whilst the Finals might look nice, interim figures in 2010 could be rather "cash tight". Could it be that the Chairman did not agree with the recycling plant as it will necessitate more cash being found by the company ? Will it mean that come year prelim figures, the company will be looking for placing monies in order to boost the cash position ?
Was the point of the recent city presentations a first step for the begging bowl to be put out soon, in order to raise funds to ensure that come H1 2010 they are not going to be struggling for cash and with bank borrowings already high could it be they will be forced into a sudden placing to boost the balances, if they cannot secure funding in the interim period ?
2008 and 2009 was a period of massive expansion for telecoms with new base stations going in on a massive scale, however, the outlook for 2010 is less new stations and lots more simple upgrades to existing. That would explain CHNS trying to move into new markets as the outlook for base station batteries is weakening along with increased competition.
I am unsure why the Chairman moved on so suddenly and dumped all his shares, but IMO he could have seen that the recycling plant is going to push cash to the limit and might mean a placing to raise funds. On top of that the base station battery outlook is weakening when you look to 2010 and 2011.
Therefore, as I am sure many have learnt, do not get fooled by people spouting EPS figures.
Cash (and committed cash spend) and outlook are key, not the EPS figures.
I have warned about placing worries for some time, nice to see a certain CHNS bull finally admitting that it may be necessary.
However, in the present market, the wolves will drive the price down if they get any sniff its going to be attempted.