RE: All options possible2 Mar 2026 10:52
Morning all. The world is in a terrible mess and nobody has a clue how to sort it out. There is no info on the endgame for Iran because er, Trump hasn't thought that far ahead. This vague idea that by decapitating the political class, ordinary Iranians will rise up and create a thriving pro-Western democracy would be laughable it wasn't so tragic. All that will happen is that the country will descend in to factional fighting, civil war and gangsterism as happened in Iraq, Libya, Syria etc. And ISIS haven't gone away.
I can't see POO dropping for a while and the OPEC output increases yesterday were relatively modest in light of what's going on. The only thing we can be certain of is that Trump is clearly worried about the mid-term elections later this year. His approval ratings are very low. In terms of China, they will clearly need to do anything they can to secure their energy supplies. That may benefit us or it may not. Don't forget the whole point of Mongolia's refinery is to produce their own oil for their own use rather than importing it. It's all pretty secondary now though. Many people are dying, having their homes destroyed, and such instability can be horribly contagious. It's what happens when you make an egomaniacal narcissist the most powerful person on the planet. Desperate times.