RE: EddieX12 Nov 2020 22:11
Tiddlor
Agree with you.
Knowing what we all know about the future prospects of palladium and the fact that MT has mainly palladium - say 2/3 to platinum 1/3 and with the management warning that we are 'shovel ready' to take this forward alone, I believe they will seek nothing but a decent fair value of the future annual profits to be derived for the next 15 years and possibly another 15 to 20 years if we bring the additional 25m ounces (estimate and yet to be proven) into the equation.
Ignoring the time value of money, other metals including rhodium, tax relief etc, the everage SP of palladium / platinum is about $1800 (being 2/3 of $2200 for palladium and 1/3 of $1000 for platinum). With AISC of a mere $325 per ounce, this gives a net profit of $1,475 per ounce.
I think the first part of the deal will be the sale of 15m MT.
Knowing what the management have said (and if this was my business), I would be happy to accept a 30% of this sale price as settlement for the 15m ounces. So, 30% of $1,475 = $440 per ounce. Therefore, for 15m ounces, it will be $6.6B. This gives approx $2. 03per share.
I also think that there will be a Farm-in type of a deal (as with Newmont / Omi) for the remainder of MT for the 25m ounces estimate in excess of the 15m. If we accept a mere $10 per ounce upfront, this gives us additional $250m or $0.07 cents per share. We get x% (say 25%) from the farm-in when resources are proven - and keep the shares for now.
Sale proceeds from WK - say $0.15 cents per share.
Total SP = $2.25 per share.
All in my view but happy for any comments