Member Info for PRK1

It's very risky to say that all the profit will come from cost reduction. Q1 revenue is down 2% YOY. That's faster than the annual decline fir the previous full year. In other words, revenue decline is accelerating. What I find troubling is things like the decline in revenue being from legacy products and more SIM only deals. It suggests that what's being shaken out are the most margin rich bits. If so, what's left will be less profitable and there will be a constant pressure on cost cutting to keep the business viable. Lower revenue and lower margin, propped up by cost cutting. Where does the regrowth come from?

Ok well, leaving aside the M&S comparison, any company with declining sales is vulnerable to competitors, and BT is a tangled mess inside. It won't be easy to regain retail market share. If the BT brand was winning this tie up would have little impact, but everyone is spooked. I sold at £1.46 and went over to Vodafone. I was intending to move back to BT once this drop bottoms out, but I think the nature of it makes it longer term. Q2 needs to be strong. If it's weak, confidence will erode further and the share might drop back to below £1.30. it's great to have Bharti and Slim on board, but their value is already factored in. It's great the Open reach Fibre now passes X many doors , and it's great that the cost of building is dropping. But these are already factored into the share price. Going forward, it's about growth.

BT and Vodafone must be in the same funds a lot of the time. They go up and down in sync, although BT tends to have bigger fluctuations. It presents good opportunities to jump between the two.

True but it took a long, long time

BT Business and EE are still segregated from each other operationally. They made such a mess of our mobile estate at my work that I left them for Vodafone, and when I look at respective businesses growth, I don't think I'm the only one who did the same. A bit like the football team I support, they've built a great stadium, got a fantastic training ground, more sports psychologists than I can count, dieticians trainers coming out of their ears, but still can't win a game.

There is a widespread complacency that somehow BT must be the dominant telco, like it's their birthright as a once nationalised monopoly. That is such a fatal attitude. BT is losing market share in both business and residential retail, and they've only got one market to trade in. No wonder the SP is sensitive. Their Q1 figures were disappointing, Like your kid bringing home a D grade in their exam and calling it a pass. BT needs to be more attractive in the market place. They have similar brand perception problems to M&S. Deeply unfashionable. This share can't realise any £2.90 target until they become the trlco of choice.

It's not that Cityfibre are a big threat. It's more that BT has a brand image problem fedding into declining sales. Business sales especially are performing very poorly. So when something cones along that threatens a small part of BTs customer base, the market gets disproportionately spooked. It's time BT retail delivered. Overly complicated products, too expensive and a sales culture that only ever looks inwards. They may have a solid foundation, but a leaky tent on a concrete Base is still a leaky tent

I sound too much time watching share prices, especially on good days like today. It makes ne feel a bit OCD by the end of the day, and my head hurts. Am I alone in this?

Red or white?

I reckon the new CEO has some contacts in the mining investment community and he's persuaded some of them to invest a bit. A good way to arrive but, if that's it, things will level off again on pretty soon. PS I've no evidence to back this up

Agreed. A major world event might push it down only to resurface as defensive, so I think it is robust against external forces, but the only cause for a rise would be improved revenue, which won't be known for 11 weeks. BT look like they have tons of potential, but they need to sell more

True but there is a fair bit of overlap when it comes to the stock market. A lot of funds that have one will have both. When BT rises, so does Vodafone. It's just that BT's movements are bigger than Vodafone's. So when a BT rally burns out, Vodafone is a steady-Eddie place to go, with a slight upward slant IMHO of course.

BT can have quite big swings. I think the current price is enthusiastic rather than substantial. OK the drop to £1.30 has been reversed because of Bharti, which is a great relief, but the business is still quite sluggish, both res and business, and that will cause investors to cool. I reckon £1.41 is a more realistic price, although, as above, BT gets these big rallies and falls based on sentiment. I've sold and gone to Vodafone, which is showing top line growth, they are doing a big share buyback and their price is a bit more predictable

BT can have quite big swings. I think the current price is enthusiastic rather than substantial. OK the drop to £1.30 has been reversed because of Bharti, which is a great relief, but the business is still quite sluggish, both res and business, and that will cause investors to cool. I reckon £1.41 is a more realistic price, although, as above, BT gets these big rallies and falls based on sentiment. I've sold and gone into Vodafone for the next few days. They are much more stable, their Q1 results showed actual growth and they are undertaking a big share buyback. I oscillate between the two companies. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't

I can see the share price rising to £1.70 quite soon, but is now the time to sell and set a limit order buy back at £1.41? Always a tough call

£1 by Christmas is optimistic. But if we get a strong Q2 and the merger goes through then it won't be far off. I have great faith in telecomd. It's been in the doldrums for a decade but the future is towards becoming heavily AI automated and a real cash cow. Great dividend potential.

£1 by Christmas is optimistic. But i

I worked in BT from 1996 to 1017. I was a corporate salesman. When I arrived BT was corrupt every level I could see. But it has changed and the drive to fibre rollout is the right way to go. Looking forward, two things are in BTs favour: 1. debt will reduce. The pension deficit will reduce because the pensioners who benefit are mortal, and the capital investment on fibre will level off into maintenance. That fibre network will last as long as copper did and will be a cash cow for decades to come. 2. AI will replace almost all humans in customer facing/contact roles. Really BT is heading towards becoming a robot. As it does so, with its network complete and it's deficits met, the margin will grow and grow. The potential of telecoms, so excitably overinflated in the late 1990's is finally set to be realised

We are all just guessing but it does seem strange since there is no bad news to match. Either there is outright deceit by the company or someone is manipulating the share price for reason. Who knows

I don't understand the collapse of the share price. The company came and said neither do they. Now a 10% drop in share price today. I can only think Mick Davies is puling back. Who else can force such big changes overnight?