Member Info for potnak

If we hit 0.8, we'll have had good news so I'd bet on you staying in at that point. :-)

Warthog. I don't think it's cynicism. I think a few here are over exposed and are looking at some quite big paper losses. I've only invested what I can afford to lose. It would be a big thing if I lost the lot but not the end of the world. The fact is we've had no bad news, none. I would buy more at this price but don't have the cash yet. The last raise and dilution was relatively small and that suggests to me that the board thinks they will be ok. News, good or bad on Sierra finding a backer for SRA737 could come any day now. That will derisk us somewhat.

Aye, gaf. Brave move. Obviously, hope it doesn't work out for you. ?? Been here too long to risk something like that. I'll allow you until the end of Aug. That's when I get my bonus.

I don't like to stick up for the board, especially because I'm frustrated too but I'm not sure what you would like them to do? what can they communicate? Realistically, there are only two scenarios here.

There is no news and we already know everything.
There is an NDA so they can't tell us anything.

I'm an optimist so I'm swaying to the latter but, IMO, both are likely.

Tim's comment re value is a nod towards a decent upfront deal for TYK2. Again, My opinion. I believe the last placing was because current negotiations we're\are going nowhere. We can't get a good deal if we aren't willing to walk away from a bad deal. Tim is a decent guy, he knows there is only so much he can ask of the shareholders. Have we reached that limit yet? I don't think so but you all have the option to sell or buy. Very few people get rich from AIM but it doesn't stop us piling big sums of cash in and hoping.

as for VAL, PYC and others. VAL has been a dog of a share for years. Been there, lost money, moved on. PYC are strange. The SP should never have risen the way it did. So many are trapped there, I still can't see where they can generate the kind of revenue to warrant a multi-million market cap that everyone thinks they can. I have made money trading PYC though. I've said before. Once I sell SAR, i'll never hold an AIM stock again. I'll be in and out, hopefully in profit. Can't beat the MM's so I'll take the odd 10% profit over years of waiting for a 1000% any day.

With all the above said.
With a backer on board. Our share of SRA737 could be worth £200 mil and TYK2 the same, presuming a decent safety profile in P1. That would be about 12p a share. I still think i'll be selling at 5 - 7p in 2020\21 for a guaranteed profit.

Most of "the market" are here, just as in the dark as you are. Frist rule of placing, the SP always settles around the place price. IMO, it's purely down to lack of news. Unfortunately, not holding a stock is the only way to protect yourself from the drift down on AIM.

Like I said. It will be interesting. I think they will have to clearly state what their plans are for SRA737. Not for our benefit but for their own shareholders. If SRA737 is as good as they've been banging on about. A backer may have already been identified. if not, we could drift down on the news. I really believe, we are due a milestone and SAR thought it was coming but when it didn't materialise we had to hastily raise to keep TYK2 moving. It isn't great, this hand to mouth finance thing. I think it leaves us exposed to lower bids but if we can ride it out. We'll be back in our usual 0.7\8 range until proper news drops.

Sorry Utar but Sierra will have to publish how they are going to fund thier next quarter in the next 3 weeks or so. IMO, they will have to at least mention SRA737. So Aug will be interesting if not exciting. I think we'll get new on trial applications for one of out TYK2 compounds too.

Loads of rules around what they can and can't say. I always wonder about AGM questions. Any answer they give can't be price sensitive hence the corporate babble below.

Their 10Q is due in the next 3 weeks. That's where they will set out the next quarters funding. They will at least have to acknowledge SRA737 even if it's to say they don't have a backer yet. I'm thinking the compound is too compelling for others to ignore though. It's squeaky bum time for Sierra investors. This time last year they were $3 dollars a pop. It's business as usual for SAR investors. We know how to be patient.

Think some of you here need to take a break from SAR. Coming here every day to read these posts can't be good for your mental health. It's not just SAR, it's AIM in general. It was always risky but over the last 5 years or so, it really has been a casino. The MM's and rampers have all but killed the golden goose. Forget about Parker. We have good news coming.

Sierra will get some non-dilutive funding and SRA737 will progress into P3. The compound and data is too compelling to ignore. We will get our milestones as a result of that.

SAR will put on of the TYK2 compounds into P1 and we'll know when before Q4, IMO.

The rest is all irrelevant, for now.

LTH's - Just hang in there, top skim profits and don't get greedy.

Completly understand the frustrations here, I remember thinking this time last year that we would have a milestone by the end of Q3 2019 and I thought the raise last year would be our last ever raise. I saw us at an SP of 2p! I couldn't have been more wrong. I differ in the view that things aren't progressing though. CHK1 has flown through trials, much quicker than I thought it would. Aurora is effectively shelved but there is no need to spook the market by confirming that. That leaves us with TYK2. The early data looks amazing but that's all it is. Early data. We could be 5 - 7 years away from TYK2 getting to market and that's even if it gets that far. Lots of hoops to jump through but I'd be confident to hold at least into P2 without pushing the sell button. For what it's worth, I still don't think we will get that far. The decision will be taken out of our hands or we'll have a no brainer of a decision to make.

Sierra will rise quickly when they report how they are going to fund the next phase. If that report includes the non dilutative funding for Sra737 then SAR rise too. 2 to 3 weeks to wait. Whatever happens. It won't be long before we are trading back in a more reasonable range.

Good read Fadec. Not quite the smoking gun we're looking for but it's coming.

I'm with there Fadec. There have been some wild claims around TYK2 over the years and some critism aimed at Parker. IMO, Parker couldn't do a deal for TYK2 because there was nothing to deal with. There is now and the price can only increase if we take it into trials ourselves. Still think we'll get and RNS this month stating application for trials.

It's a line on most RNS's and as in the interview Fadec just posted. As he states, multiple parties. A caveat to this is. They've been saying this for the last 10 years. Doesn't mean it isn't true though.

Predictions for this year
Sierra on licence SRA737 - hopefully, we get a milestone
Application for NHS trials for TYK2 Cancer
Possible small upfront licence for TYK2 AutoImmune

Next year TYK2 Cancer goes into Phase 1 and we get another licence
SRA737 starts to shine and we get a major rerate.

Tim has said on numerous occasions they are in talks with multiple parties. The small size if the raise and the specific reason says to me they don't anticipate having to raise for operating costs. Which, to me says. They're expecting to have something in place before Nov (when they usually raise). IMO, they are talking to Sierra and to others about licencing TYK2. Another point on TYK2 is, the size of the raise to progress isn't enough (based on CHK1) to progress both compounds. So which one will they choose. Again, I suspect SAR will develop cancer and look to licence Autoimmune as RA market is heating up. All guess work and quite possibly all wrong but it's what I'm going with. Short answer to your question. You don't get all of the above without talks.

If we are already in negotiations as I and others suspect then Parker will be pivitol in those negotiations. The last deal we got was announced in September which means negotiations were probably going on all through the summer do I don't buy this summer recess idea. Sierra still have to report on thier funding in thier q10. Only a month to wait for this. Regardless of sra737 they still Need funding in place for SRA141 and I bet they are very busy working on how they plan to move forward. We're affected by that. SAR will be applying for NHS trials ASAP. We'll get an RNS on that within the next month. IMO. Everyone just need to remember that TYK2 is still pre clinical and as such will be harder to sell. No one here is going to get rich from SAR in 2019. Don't kid yourself otherwise.

We need to get our TYK2 RA moving too!

https://endpts.com/going-for-it-gsks-hal-barron-outlines-a-big-phiii-program-for-rheumatoid-arthritis-going-head-to-head-with-giant-rivals/

The new shares are admitted to market tomorrow. I'm expecting an application for NHS trials RNS in the next few weeks. It may not do a great deal to the SP although, it should based on what happened last time. I'm also expecting to hear what Sierra are doing re funding in the next month to 6 weeks. It's going to get busy in here in the near future.

Sierra aren't going to give up a potential $1B a year sales that easy. Just because they've only just said they are looking non dilutative funding doesn't mean that haven't already been looking.