Member Info for potnak

SAR is a 10 bagger from here. Easy.

The milestone will see us back at 1p. Maybe more because we will be then self sufficient. No more placings. I'm still intrigued with what Thoth said last week. SAR are no longer a development company and once SDC-1801 and SDC-1802 have been licensed. There is nothing left to do. Will they then pump money into Aurora? Or go back SKIL? Tim's age says no. Another 10 years at least. So what is the long term plan. Its likely 1801 and 1802 will both be licensed in two years. Then what? Would we still pay the board while we sit and wait on trials? I'm starting to think this is the reason the NEDS are here. Are they caretakers?

I think this deadline will be the catalyst for our milestone payment. Can see any other way how they can get the sp above $1. The clock is ticking, indeed.

I think it's a good update. We know what's happening, some dependancies and the timescales. We can all make the decision to hold, sell or buy based on this information. In other times this update would have given us a blue day. Its only shareholder sentiment that's taking it down.

I wouldve liked to see a breakdown of cashburn.

What is the cash burn? Plus pernetages of how it breaks down. Do they anticipate this will fall or rise?

Yes, I expected this though. It did feel like sabotaging our own stock. The MM's did try to give it some legs this morning but without tangible news, there was no appetite so they will take it down. Easy money.

Do you really think they are hangers-on? Why would SAR add to their cash worries? What would they gain from this? These guys could earn this sort of money anywhere. Why would they risk their reputations bu not delivering anything? I don't buy it.

The NED's are here for regulatory reasons which would suggest a deal is in the making. Had to google what runoff mode was when Thoth mentioned it last week but that scenario would make sense and I guess a team needs to be in place to facilitate that?

Possibly but the wording is better than other updates. They pointed out where they've already reported this etc.. This has come from the new advisor who has been appointed as a result of Thoth's intervention, IMO.

Utar. Leave Riddler to it. He\She might get the SP moving a bit. If today's news had been released by other AIM companies. The herd would be here now and we'd be looking at a couple of big blue days. He's right. They are big numbers and potential.

If no deal or milestones, we'll raise in Nov. I think Sierra will be sorted by then, mainly because they have their own financial issues and deadline to meet.

The statement is what I expected. Everything we already know, carefully worded so not to introduce more speculation. It is unfortunate that the trial for TYK2 won't start until late 2020. Probably to allow more time to manufacture enough of the drug for the trial. I guess this is why we haven't had the RNS stating the application for trials yet.

All good though. No real negatives in the statement.

There are two scenarios here.
One is today's statement is everything. There is no more news to give. if that is the case then it does feel like jam tomorrow. I did say be careful what you wish for though.
The other scenario is there is one or multiple NDA's in place. The trouble with the scenario is they can't confirm or deny this.

One extra thing I would have liked to have like to see is a financial forecast. Where is the cash being spent?

Well, at leat we've got a professional ramper here. Get ready for some cut and paste news, we already know!

I think where we duffer though, Aber. I think TYK2 has progressed, much along the lines of CHK1. We'll be in trials early next year. Licence will come then.

Well, I hope this goes well guys. Just feels like we're sabotaging our own shares. The truth will be that TYK2 isnt as far down the road as you all think. Once the mystery is gone and proper timescales are given we'll be in the hands of the mm's.

It's not the right kind of news Fadec. I don't get it either.

Its the end of the month next week. Thoth has threatened to open Pandoras box. Let's see what happens. I personally think we'll get a statement from the company.

I think I have the same views as you and the same timescales but my worry is we get a "didn't meet the primary endpoint" RNS and watch it all disappear. I think it will be worth £200 million before the data is reported.

Also - if SRA737 is as good as you suspect. They will find a backer with the knowledge and resources to see it through.

Do you really want the company to tell us that the TYK2 data is average at best? Why would they do that without testing in the clinic first? Another reason to push for value in the upfront payments at the expense of lower royalties should we get to market.

I don't know if there is an NDA. I hope there is because it will explain a lot. If there isn't an NDA then there is no news other than the stuff we already know. Still not bad news, just longer timescales to cash out time.

No one answer until I've got my popcorn!

Ahfam. £800 million is probably the most we can hope for. If SRA737 goes into P3 and start killing people. Our share of SRA737 alone will be worth £200 million before it gets approved. You'd have to risk losing the lot to wait for the end of the trial and royalties.

TYK2 could be a much, much bigger market and if we could see it up to the end of P2. I honestly don't think we will get that far and I'm not sure I want the risk either. I'm hoping for a big upfront and low royalties for TYK2. Hoping the value gets nailed on at the expense of future income.

Another also. We'll need sellers when the time comes. The MM's can't push the price up with no volume so Aber might be doing us a favour.

Also, how many AIM companies deliver growth? Its boom or bust, always has been. Get yourself some nice government bonds if you want growth.

Aber - you won't be out at 0.75 and if we got to 2p, you'd stay in because it would mean we've had some really good news. The SP is at least a 10 bagger from here until we get a failure on CHK1. TYK2 will add its own value once we get it into trials. That isn't far away.