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They'd probably could spin up a fundraiser through Primary Bid. That way, they are dealing directly with investors and it allows for over-subscription. There are overheads of course and im not sure how that works if you want them in your ISA. The quickest way to raise funds if they think the appetite is there.
At this stage. I'm more than willing to risk everything against getting fair value. I'd be disappointed with anything under £10. Easy doable on good 1801 1b results and 1802 in trials (straight to 1b). The immediate financial mess is dire but not impossible to fix. I just think we'll have to dilute the shares somewhat or give away a chunk of the future potential. Both of which I'd take, to eventually get to that £10. And in the RNS, it was brutal, not clumsy but there is no need to dress this up. Better get it out in the open now so when\If good news come, confidence will come flooding back
In my usual working-all-scenarios way of thinking. It just occurred to me that we have a cash-rich contact in the cancer arena and that is CPF. If Tim and Parker aren't or haven't been talking to CPF they should be. We might have to give them a slice of 1802 to them but that would be better than it going somewhere else on the cheap. A relatively small amount of cash could secure 1801 and 1802 through to Phase 2 trials.
1a results, Mafuta and we may not have enough cash to finish 1a! They released now because interim results are due in 2 weeks. They had to. However, the timing of the RNS yesterday =, doing it intraday rather than first thing or 11 o'clock does seem like they thought f*ck it. It was probably written after a call where they found out the pot is empty with no real plan to top it up. I'm expecting more RNS, with maybe some resignations to save salaries etc.. Lets see what the next few days bring and hope they do pull a rabbit out of the hat.
I will buy small amounts but for larger buys. it's probably better off waiting for a placing. At least your money will add to the pot of cash needed to progress. I agree with SOG, we'll probably have to give away 10% or more of the company to get out of this.
Leggster, the is probably another RNS inbound telling us how they have taken steps to protect capital. Wouldn't be surprised to see Parker and a NED or 2 go. And have others have said. Do we really need 2 brokers?
The silver lining is, if we get through this. RF are done for now.
Covboy, not much point making things worse by calling an EGM and shouting at the board. It's sh*t, we shouldn't be here but we are. Im not the only one who has been predicting things will get worse before they get better. I actually don't think we've seen the worse yet. That will come if the results are anything less than outstanding.
Hopefully, we can tap an HNWI again but we'll have to give away millions of shares if we want to raise enough for p1b. At this point progress with a big dillution is better than going bust.
To sum up. I think the 737 deal is about raising funds to progress it in combo trials. The numbers are meaningless, they are more or less what the Sierra deal was. It's the 500k shares that are important. I think this private company will will raise funds, spin up trials and then sell the rights and we might never find out who they are.
When the RNS was released. My first thought were, it felt similar to when we licenced flt3/Aurora to it. If not, it'll be handed back again. The pria pharma that were trying to solve the solubility issues. I still think it's been taken on to see if they can quickly progressvate bio pharma might stay private until tangible progress has been made. It could well be the team behind the Sierra work on 737 just using the data gathered to put together a data package to gain funding to continue. Basically, preyno. I think your post is on the right lines. I think this deal is about raising funds rather that spinning up trials. The trials will come later if course.
Unless RF back a winner, they are doomed. I fully admit id not heard of them until the RNS dropped and Puma gave a potted history. Surely, even as a last resort, future companies, will think twice when they look at the share charts of other RF customers? There is a thing though. If sareum get some sort of deal where the SP rises past the warrant price of £1.47, I think it was. They will be quids in as they will still be able to buy at a lower price and have a large hangover of shares they got for under a pound. More dillution for Sareum, of course, but you could have a sneaky punt of RF, if you thought a deal was near as their share price would rise too.
I don't think we will get a buyout. The point you are missing is the valuation of any company before a buyout. It's likely that with 737 progressing, 1801 in P2 and 1802 in P1b (straight into patients) then Sareum will be already valued in the 100's of millions. We are in a bit of a mess at the moment but once we get funding for 1b sorted which I think will be soon, the amount based on the maximum allowed of the three clauses in the contract. Upto £1.4 million, Can't be more, than 10% of the market cap. Not greater than 15 x the 10 and 20 day average and finally, only if the outstanding RF deposits is less than £1 million. It would be nice if one of the accountants on this board could do an analysis on this but I think this or next week at a price of between 30p and 33p. If we can get over this hurdle then a licence on 1b data we'll be flying again.
With Aurora as an example, why would you want to be known as the company that couldn't solve solubility issues? With 737,we will hear something when there is something positive (financially compelling) to report. Until then, we can only speculate. Personally, the terms of the licence do seem to point to a link with Sierra though. But then, with nothing concrete, you could just use that last deal as a reference too. So I dunno.
Yes, but we're they the pharma that tried to solve the Aurora solubility issue? The 2020 RNS states China based specialty pharma company not university. The point I'm making is it isn't unusual to not be told. It's the second time it's happened with Sareum. I guess it is done for a few reasons but mainly to keep an orderly market.
I don't think we ever found out who the specialty Chinese pharma was took Aurora was either. They will sing from the rooftops once they know they have something. Or we'll get a Friday afternoon RNS saying it will be handed back. Im not even sure they will run trials, they might just pull a data package together to get funding first. I feel like 737 could be something but it's further away than 1801 1b IMO.
Might be cynical but I think the big sells on Friday we're RF getting rid because they think the sp will rise in the near future. It doesnt make sense to hold shares they paid over a pound for, when, under the terms of the deal. We will give them more to cover the losses.
I don't suppose the board will rule anything out but any investment now is going to come with a big dillution, even HNWI. IMO, we have our funding, it's not great but I will get us there. The boards job now is to generate some buzz so the SP average allows enough drawdown to complete 1b. Then it's a win or lose scenario. Good 1b data and we look for a licence bad 1b data and we all cry into our cornflakes. The good thing about our situation is it only carries on if the data is good.
I dunno about a placing. It would save the need to drawdown more from RF but I be surprised if they have even got half their cash back yet. So unless the placing was enough to pay fur 1b and oat off RF, then we would have two lots of dillution. It would also be at a big discount maybe 25p? So how would that be better than RF alone? It's a bit of a mess but IMO, we just need enough for 1b and hope the data is good.